zengrifter said:
So despite the imbalanced nature, and contrary to some of Snyder's R7 advice, you may
bet and play to the RC throughout the shoe, not just the second half, it would appear. zg
,
It's not that it's "contrary" to Arnold's advice, it's just that playing by the RC throughout the shoe is accurate enough --
in the range of multi-unit bets and positive index plays. Arnold's approach of either simply ignoring many index plays in the early part of the shoe, or having slightly different strike numbers for them early on is pretty good too.
But where the real problems arise is with neutral and negative index plays. That's because unbalanced count systems are structured in the direction of rising counts.
At neutral and negative counts, the "link" between the RC and TC pretty much dissolves.
The most common and most highlighted example of this is with 16 vs. 10. To play this important hand accurately with an unbalanced system, it's not so good to go directly by the RC.
That's because an
averaged "neutral" RC with six decks for Red 7 would be about -6. You could use that and often be right. With a half deck gone, a -6 RC is equal to a +0
.9 TC, and you should stand. But with 4 decks gone, that same -6 RC would be equal to a -1
.0 TC, and you should hit! Not grossly in error -- but not quite right either.
To play that hand really right, you want to play it by the RC that would be "normal" or "neutral" for the shoe depth you are currently at.
This means that off the top of a 6 deck shoe, you should stand at -12 RC or richer, because -12 at that point is "neutral", or zero TC. But 4 decks deep into it, you should stand at -4 RC or richer, because at that point, -4 is neutral.
As a Red 7 player, you could just use -6 for playing 16 vs. 10, or you could have one index for early and another for late -- or you could become intimately familiar with what a neutral RC would be at all stages of the deck/shoe. With a six deck shoe, a neutral, or zero TC would be:
off the top: -12
one deck in: -10
two decks in: -8
three decks in: -6
four decks in: -4
five decks in: -2
At any of these RC's at these depths, you would in fact be correct to begin standing with 16 vs. 10. As your playing hours mount using an unbalanced count, you'll naturally know whether the shoe is running positive or negative by what a "normal" RC would be at any point you're currently at.
Just be aware that with Red 7, KISS and UBZ
(but not KO), any RC's above the pivot
(+2.0 TC) are a bit waeker early in the shoe, and a bit stronger late in the shoe. Positive RC's
below the pivot are stronger early and weaker late.
This is all vividly explained and visually illustrated on pages 175 & 176 of Bluebook II.