Risk of Ruin and EV

[BlackHawk]

I'm currently new to this forum. It's a pleasure to meet everyone here. I've being practicing counting for 2 months now and can count down a deck in less than 30 sec and less than 3 mins for a 6 decks shoe. The game that I will be playing mostly would probably be 6 decks shoe for low limit because my limited bankroll. I'm currently practicing the Hi-Low Lite with almost full indices.

Total Bankroll: $10,000
6 decks shoe or Double Decks
75% penetration
H17,DAS, DD any 2 cards, and sometime LAS

Less than 0%: $5
1% : $10-$25
2% : $25-$50
3% and greater : $75
Max bet will be $75


With the currently bet spread that I'm using right now, what is my risk of ruin and EV. I know its a more conservative approach but I will not readjust my max bet when I lose or win. I understand the basic concept of counting but when it comes to actually doing the calculations, I don't quite understand. I would greatly appreciate it with any kind of reply. Thanks again!

 

[moo321]

I'm currently new to this forum. It's a pleasure to meet everyone here. I've being practicing counting for 2 months now and can count down a deck in less than 30 sec and less than 3 mins for a 6 decks shoe. The game that I will be playing mostly would probably be 6 decks shoe for low limit because my limited bankroll. I'm currently practicing the Hi-Low Lite with almost full indices.

Total Bankroll: $10,000
6 decks shoe or Double Decks
75% penetration
H17,DAS, DD any 2 cards, and sometime LAS

Less than 0%: $5
1% : $10-$25
2% : $25-$50
3% and greater : $75
Max bet will be $75


With the currently bet spread that I'm using right now, what is my risk of ruin and EV. I know its a more conservative approach but I will not readjust my max bet when I lose or win. I understand the basic concept of counting but when it comes to actually doing the calculations, I don't quite understand. I would greatly appreciate it with any kind of reply. Thanks again!

Off the top of my head, both your EV and risk of ruin are quite low. Few things to consider:

1. Wong in/back count
2. Wong out of negative counts
3. Spreading 5-75 is a smaller spread than I prefer for 6 deck (although it is adequate), and too big for double deck.
Both will add some to EV and drastically improve risk of ruin.

 

[BlackHawk]

Thank you Moo321 for the quick response. When playing 6 decks shoe, I'm planning to wong-in with 1% advantage and wong-out once the advantage drop below -1%. But I won't be able to do it for double decks since most of the casinos around my area have no mid-shoe entry and the min. is $25 dollars. According to Arnold Snyder, I would need a 120 max bets to be able to play at the double decks table. But in order to beat the double decks, I need about $15,000 bankroll to be able to bet $25-$125(1-5) spread. Also, with the $10,000 bankroll, I was hoping for an EV of $25-$50/hr, and a risk of ruin of 5% or less. According to Bill Zender, my average bet need to be about 1/150 of my total Bankroll to be under 5% risk of ruin. But, I would like to get actual opinions from many pro versus opinion from a book or one author. Once again, thank you for the advice.

 

[matt21]

hi blackhawk,
i had a go at calculating your EV and ROR using the figures you gave - although i ahve only done so for the 6D game.

For 6D game i calculate HE of 0.48% using wizard of odds.

i have taken your bet ramp as:
TC 0, 1, 2 and negative $5
TC 3 $10
TC 4 $25
TC 5,6 $50
TC 7+ $75

this is using your % indications

your EV using this bet ramp (and assuming you are always playing one hand) is 0.03 units per shoe ($1.50/shoe). i.e. you are playing a break-even game. Your ROR with $10k bankroll is about 2.5%

i would suggest that you adjust your ramp - start betting more at +2 and max out at 4 or 5 and above. another good technique (if table conditions allow) is to spread from 1 hand to 2 hands when count is 2 or higher - you can increase EV while maintaining the same ROR

IMHO the ability to understand bet ramping, calculating EV/SD/ROR is an important aspect of the game.

hope that helps a little.

Matt

 

[BlackHawk]

Wow...Thank you Matt for the numbers. I thought by playing on only positive situations will give me an edge, but the spread is a little to low. Guess I'll readjust my numbers.

0% or less : Wong Out
.5%-1% : $25 or 2 hands of $40 with 3 or more players
1.5%: $50 or 2 hands of $75 with 3 or more players
2% : $75 or 2 hands of $50 with 3 or more players
2%+: $100 or 2 hands of $75

 

[matt21]

Wow...Thank you Matt for the numbers. I thought by playing on only positive situations will give me an edge, but the spread is a little to low. Guess I'll readjust my numbers.

0% or less : Wong Out
.5%-1% : $25 or 2 hands of $40 with 3 or more players
1.5%: $50 or 2 hands of $75 with 3 or more players
2% : $75 or 2 hands of $50 with 3 or more players
2%+: $100 or 2 hands of $75

that sounds better - as a rule of thumb - your total amount bet over 2 hands should be about 150% of your one bet amount - so for the first two steps you should use two hands of $15 say (instead of 2x40) and two hands of $35 (instead of 2x75). this would give you EV of 1.25 units/shoe or $6.27 and ROR of 1.85% - but i have also assumed that you wong out at -1. Now if you get to see 3 shoes per hour then you are looking at a good theoretical return on your bankroll.

please ignore the 0.03 units/shoe that i mentioned earlier - it should have been 0.3 units (and still $1.50).

 

[moo321]

Thank you Moo321 for the quick response. When playing 6 decks shoe, I'm planning to wong-in with 1% advantage and wong-out once the advantage drop below -1%. But I won't be able to do it for double decks since most of the casinos around my area have no mid-shoe entry and the min. is $25 dollars. According to Arnold Snyder, I would need a 120 max bets to be able to play at the double decks table. But in order to beat the double decks, I need about $15,000 bankroll to be able to bet $25-$125(1-5) spread. Also, with the $10,000 bankroll, I was hoping for an EV of $25-$50/hr, and a risk of ruin of 5% or less. According to Bill Zender, my average bet need to be about 1/150 of my total Bankroll to be under 5% risk of ruin. But, I would like to get actual opinions from many pro versus opinion from a book or one author. Once again, thank you for the advice.

If you're willing to do it, you could probably play a safe game at the $25 DD game by wonging out of negative counts, and adding a second hand in positive counts. By safe I mean under 5% risk of ruin. But it's also relatively risky from a heat perspective, so pick your poison.

If you want my advice, I'd recommend back-counting the shoe games.