Session Loss

T

TrueCount

Active Member
#1
#1
I had the my worst session ever in my local casino the other day, down 250 units in about 5.5 hrs of play in a 6 Deck H-17, LS, DOA, DAS with 75% penetration. I was getting hard 12,13,14,15 & 16 on most of my max bets (15 units/ 15+15 or 12 or 14+14). Splits/Double down on max bets never worked, many times I was getting a deuce when doubling on 11 on a TC +6, i think of maybe 30 max bets of that night, got only 2 doubles that made money, the rest i got a stiff & busted or just surrendered my 14-15-16 in digust. I count the decks to near perfection so there definitely was no error in counting. BTW my spread was TC-0 :1 unit, TC 1 :2 units, TC 2 : 4 units, TC 3 : 8 units, TC 4 : 12-16 units or 2 hands of 12-14 units. On negative counts left the table or went to bathroom.

I know people will say "Variance is a B***H" but what's a probability of being down 250 units+ in 1 session of less than 6 hrs of play? Any other similar experience? what's the probability of another 250+ units loss on a next session?

Thanks a lot, learning a lot from this wonderful forum!
 
kewljason

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
StandardDeviant said:
I get ~0.02% for having another session, i.e., being 500 units down after 12 hours total.
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I think maybe you have worded this wrong. The number you gave .02% is the probabiltity of having (2) 250 unit losing sessions prior to the first session. Now that the first session has already taken place, the probability of a second losing session is still .1%.
 
K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
TrueCount said:
I had the my worst session ever in my local casino the other day, down 250 units in about 5.5 hrs of play in a 6 Deck H-17, LS, DOA, DAS with 75% penetration. I was getting hard 12,13,14,15 & 16 on most of my max bets (15 units/ 15+15 or 12 or 14+14). Splits/Double down on max bets never worked, many times I was getting a deuce when doubling on 11 on a TC +6, i think of maybe 30 max bets of that night, got only 2 doubles that made money, the rest i got a stiff & busted or just surrendered my 14-15-16 in digust. I count the decks to near perfection so there definitely was no error in counting. BTW my spread was TC-0 :1 unit, TC 1 :2 units, TC 2 : 4 units, TC 3 : 8 units, TC 4 : 12-16 units or 2 hands of 12-14 units. On negative counts left the table or went to bathroom.

I know people will say "Variance is a B***H" but what's a probability of being down 250 units+ in 1 session of less than 6 hrs of play? Any other similar experience? what's the probability of another 250+ units loss on a next session?

Thanks a lot, learning a lot from this wonderful forum!
Click to expand...
Don't you think itmight be a little a hard to tell while, on the 1 hand you say, "TC-0 :1 unit" and, on the other hand say "On negative counts left the table"?

Let alone 12-16 units at TC +4, let alone "or 2 hands of 12-14 units"?

Maybe try betting in a disciplined fashioned for 5.5 hours (it's only 5.5 hours)so it would actually be easy to know rather than all this other stuff which, basically only means, you bet whatever you want when the count gets big, probably depending on how far ahead or behind you are at the time and maybe bet varting amounts of time when count is minus.

How about this - how likely would you say your analysis of however you bet were for your results after each hour? Or each session?

For heaven's sake, even if we could tell you the "right" answer maybe ask yourself "why do I have to ask strangers in the first place to know"?

Learn how to catch fish so you can eat forever.
 
S

shadroch

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
Obviously, the casino is cheating. Please start at least three threads telling us about it.:joker:
Seriously, **** happens. Not to rub salt in your wounds, but I'd bet there was at least one ploppie making stupid moves that won at your table, no?
 
StandardDeviant

StandardDeviant

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
kewljason said:
I think maybe you have worded this wrong. The number you gave .02% is the probabiltity of having (2) 250 unit losing sessions prior to the first session. Now that the first session has already taken place, the probability of a second losing session is still .1%.
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Your are right KJ. The probability of having another session is 0.1%. The odds of having 2 such sessions is 0.01%. Thanks for pointing this out.
 
creeping panther

creeping panther

Banned
#11
#11
TrueCount

TrueCount said:
I had the my worst session ever in my local casino the other day, down 250 units in about 5.5 hrs of play in a 6 Deck H-17, LS, DOA, DAS with 75% penetration. I was getting hard 12,13,14,15 & 16 on most of my max bets (15 units/ 15+15 or 12 or 14+14). Splits/Double down on max bets never worked, many times I was getting a deuce when doubling on 11 on a TC +6, i think of maybe 30 max bets of that night, got only 2 doubles that made money, the rest i got a stiff & busted or just surrendered my 14-15-16 in digust. I count the decks to near perfection so there definitely was no error in counting. BTW my spread was TC-0 :1 unit, TC 1 :2 units, TC 2 : 4 units, TC 3 : 8 units, TC 4 : 12-16 units or 2 hands of 12-14 units. On negative counts left the table or went to bathroom.

I know people will say "Variance is a B***H" but what's a probability of being down 250 units+ in 1 session of less than 6 hrs of play? Any other similar experience? what's the probability of another 250+ units loss on a next session?

Thanks a lot, learning a lot from this wonderful forum!
Click to expand...
You are not spreading enough! The bigger the spread the more you win.:laugh:

5.5 hours of getting your ass kicked and you stayed at that table?????? I would have left after an hour or maybe less.

Hey,,,,what happened in the negative counts, forgot, you ran to the potty.

Are you trying to get rich playing BJ?

Variance isn't a BITCH, it is a KILLER, keep this strategy up and you will be demoralized and broke and:eek:

75%, and h17.. how generous.

Just remember what greats like JG say and Pro21, "counting alone is not advantage play"!:eek:

I suggest you really dig into this game before it is to late for you. And don't buy into all the CW:rolleyes:

CP
 
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T

TrueCount

Active Member
#12
#12
shadroch said:
Obviously, the casino is cheating. Please start at least three threads telling us about it.:joker:
Seriously, **** happens. Not to rub salt in your wounds, but I'd bet there was at least one ploppie making stupid moves that won at your table, no?
Click to expand...
Some ploppies came and stayed for less than hour made some money and left.
At the same casino the previous week I was down about -240 units at one point and recovered half of that after about 10 hrs of play. can you call crazy 'variance' ?
 
StandardDeviant

StandardDeviant

Well-Known Member
#13
#13
TrueCount said:
can you call crazy 'variance' ?
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Psychologists tell us that losing is 3 times more painful than winning is pleasurable. We think we're supposed to win because we are taking proactive action (counting, bet ramping, etc.) to influence the outcome. Then, when we don't win, we think that something is wrong. Our play is wrong. The casino is cheating. That ploppie took my hit card. Today is not my day. The sun got in my eyes. And on it goes...

Variance isn't crazy. It just is. Players have crazy ideas about variance.
 
G

Grisly Dreams

Well-Known Member
#14
#14
Don't listen to these "experts." At a true count of +2, you've got an advantage over the house of like .5%. Multiply that by the 12-14 units you're betting at that advantage, and that comes out to. . .let's see. . .I figure if you aren't seeing 6% returns, the casino is obviously cheating.
 
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