Should I take a shot at the big bucks?

[apex]

Lately I have had some crazy thoughts about using blackjack to reach some financial goals. In this post i am going to share some of my thoughts, as well as some bank roll numbers. I’ll begin with the end goal: $60,000 to use as a down payment for a business I want to purchase.

As of right now I am sitting on about $45k. Of that I would consider about $3,000 to be my blackjack bankroll. I could probably bump that up to about $5,000 and be comfortable losing it, but if I lost that much I would almost certainly stop playing blackjack(or anything else) for awhile. I do have a wife to think about, and it would be quite irresponsible for me to risk more.

I am new to counting but have been doing well. I have about 40 hours experience playing $5-$10 min tables spreading $5-$75 or $10 to 2X$75. I am up about $2000. I realize this has been a good short term run and can’t expect to win at this rate over the long run.

So here is my thought. I could take $3000-$5000 and take a shot at spreading $50-$400. If things went really well I could win/earn(do we say win or earn?) the rest of the money I need to buy the business I want. It would be a good life adventure and a great story if it worked out.

The more likely result would be losing the 5k, or stopping at some other point if playing that high makes me too nervous. If I lost the money my life wouldn’t change at all, though it would set me back about 4 months. Id continue to run my somewhat boring but bills paying business, probably keep playing small recreationally, and continue to save money.

What do you guys think?

 

[Machinist]

First off .....why the hell would you want to start a business in this country anymore anyhow???? You want to take a shot at becoming a weathy..rich..well to do business man... Havent you heard thats not the american way now??? Pretty damned selfish if you ask me......:laugh::laugh:
Secondly............I'm just kidding about the " First off"..........But some people dont kid about this..
Thirdly hell ya you should take a chance..... Your only talking 5 g here........but your gonna gamble with 60 grand for a business???? You already have 45G right? But you not willing to gamble that money........But if you made 60g at BJ you would gamble that money on a business????? Hmmmmmmmmm
How much money would this business generate for you yearly????? How much could you generate just playing BJ if you did somehow make 60g... Also what is your time line to make this 60G.....
IMO 5 grand aint much to play bj on or anything else for that matter......

Just some random thoughts on this wonderful crisp day in southern Ga.

Machinist

 

[shadroch]

You want to try a $50-400 spread with a BR of around $5000?
Seriously?
Good luck, you will need it.
I hope you have a better thought out business plan

 

[apex]

The business has made $80,000+ over the last 7 years, and has been around for 30 years. I have been looking at businesses for about 18 months now, and have seen plenty of crap for sale that I wouldn't touch. I am confident I know what I am doing as far as this is concerned.

You want to try a $50-400 spread with a BR of around $5000?
Seriously?
Good luck, you will need it.
I hope you have a better thought out business plan

I know. I would have to start off strong and run good. I would be far more likely to lose the Money, but would also have a fair chance to reach my $15,000 goal.

 

[apex]

Thirdly hell ya you should take a chance..... Your only talking 5 g here........but your gonna gamble with 60 grand for a business???? You already have 45G right? But you not willing to gamble that money........But if you made 60g at BJ you would gamble that money on a business????? Hmmmmmmmmm
How much money would this business generate for you yearly????? How much could you generate just playing BJ if you did somehow make 60g... Also what is your time line to make this 60G.....
Machinist

These are all fair points and good questions. From what I have read, I could take my 45k and have a play blackjack full time with a good chance of success. I do enjoy playing blackjack, but don't think playing professionally is for me. I feel business ownership is more secure/socially accepted.

Investing money into a business is somewhat of a gamble. The risk of ruin is probably higher than if I were to take it all and play $50-$400. In fact, I could go bankrupt and lose even more than I ever intended to risk since the $60 is just a downpayment on a $250k transaction.

Business ownership/purchasing is a different game, but it is beatable. I am confident the business I am looking to purchase would continue to perform as it has in the past an suit me suit me well. Yes, I am sure that is what I want to do if I can come up with the money .

 

[Machinist]

Apex.....lifes a gamble......i have always found that if i second guess myself and dont do what my "gut " says i should do,,, i always kick myself in the but later.....
Fortunately i haven't had to many of those issues.....
Hey if the business is a proven business........then go for it if the books look good...
Seriously though, like Shad has said.......5grand for the spread you are talking is basically throwing your money away....
I dont know what the ROR is but it's gotta be sickeningly high.....

Machinist

 

[apex]

Ror

Can someone tell me what the chance of turning $5000 into $15,000 is?

Id probably do something like this: TC -2 WONG, TC 1 or worse $50, TC 2 $100, TC 3 $200, TC 4 $300, TC 5+ $400.

I'll take a guess at 33%, so 67% ROR

 

[kewljason]

This is a bad thread from the get go. I don't know much about business, but the idea of buying a business for $15,000 that makes a profit of $80,000 per year sounds like a long shot to me. Are you sure you know what you are talking about and/or that the seller isn't filling your head with unreasonable expectations?

Even if the opportunity is legit, your business plan of winning the money by gambling is pretty unrealistic. And yes that is exactly what we are talking about here, gambling! :sad: A top wager of $400 with a $3000 -$5000 BR is nothing more than gambling! It doesn't show sound business judgement. My recommendation is to take a parttime job to raise the funds. Ask family and friends to lend you the money or invest in your business or even sell some blood. Gambling to raise funds to buy a business is just a poor business plan.

As for making a good story....yes it would! It would also make a good story if you jumped from a bridge, spread your arms and flew. I don't recommend you try either. :laugh:

 

[moo321]

I want to backtrack a little. I don't think you should invest your whole life savings in a business. It's the same reason we don't put our whole portfolio into one stock. Personally, I have some of my money in stocks, some in blackjack, and some in a business.

As you get more wealthy, it's more important to diversify, so you NEVER get wiped out. So, I would recommend you put some money into blackjack, put some into stocks, maybe buy some real estate investments, maybe buy/start a business. Maybe you could stake some card-counters with a small portion of your total money.

Also, you're going to be drastically overbetting with the amounts you're proposing. Assuming you put the whole $45K into your bankroll, I wouldn't have a max bet of more than $500, and that would be quite aggressive. $300 would be a lot safer.

 

[apex]

I don't know much about business, but the idea of buying a business for $15,000 that makes a profit of $80,000 per year sounds like a long shot to me. Are you sure you know what you are talking about and/or that the seller isn't filling your head with unreasonable expectations?

The business would sell for $250,000 and require a $60,000 down payment, of which I already have $45,000. The business has been reviewed by a major bank that is willing the finance the other $190,000, which I can tell you is extremely rare. Most business transactions are seller financed because they are too risky for banks to touch.

 

[apex]

This is a bad thread from the get go. .

I want to backtrack a little. I don't think you should invest your whole life savings in a business. It's the same reason we don't put our whole portfolio into one stock. Personally, I have some of my money in stocks, some in blackjack, and some in a business.

As you get more wealthy, it's more important to diversify, so you NEVER get wiped out. So, I would recommend you put some money into blackjack, put some into stocks, maybe buy some real estate investments, maybe buy/start a business. Maybe you could stake some card-counters with a small portion of your total money.

Also, you're going to be drastically overbetting with the amounts you're proposing. Assuming you put the whole $45K into your bankroll, I wouldn't have a max bet of more than $500, and that would be quite aggressive. $300 would be a lot safer.

Bad thread, I agree. This is not a place to discuss business, so lets talk blackjack. What are the chances of turning $5000 into $15000?

 

[Southpaw]

Can someone tell me what the chance of turning $5000 into $15,000 is?

Id probably do something like this: TC -2 WONG, TC 1 or worse $50, TC 2 $100, TC 3 $200, TC 4 $300, TC 5+ $400.

I'll take a guess at 33%, so 67% ROR

I ran the following simulation to determine the variables needed to calculate the RoR for you.

I assumed the following game:

Six-Deck, H17, Split to 4, Resplit Aces, 3:2 BJ, DOA2, LS, Pen = 1.4 Decks cut off, DAS, 1 other player.

I used the spread you suggested.

I assumed Hi-Lo with the I18 and Fab 4 indices.

I used 1 deck resolution and a rounded TC. Therefore, you were wonging really at TC <= -1.51.

Here are some stats (assuming 100 hands seen per hour):

Win rate per hour: $62.39
You played only 57 hands per hour
TBA = .995%
Hourly Standard Deviation: $1,157.10

Now for the RoR. I'll use a double-barrier; either you tap out or reach the goal of 15k.

Probability of reaching goal: 49.47%

Remember, though, that this implies perfect play and no cover. Keep these things in mind.

Edit: I should mention that I did not incorporate a find new table delay. This will not affect your risk, but it would lower your hourly wage and S.d.

Edit #2:

Double-barrier RoR; either tap out or turn the 5k into 20k.

Probability of reaching goal: 44.80%

I think that this demonstrates the fact that once you get your BR up to 15k, you are likely to make it to 20k. In other words, the casino, if they get you, will likely get you early on.

SP

 

[apex]

Thanks!

Thanks SP!

 

[kewljason]

The business would sell for $250,000 and require a $60,000 down payment, of which I already have $45,000. The business has been reviewed by a major bank that is willing the finance the other $190,000, which I can tell you is extremely rare. Most business transactions are seller financed because they are too risky for banks to touch.

My apologizes for misunderstanding. I still recommend you seek other mean of completing your financing. As a person who makes his living playing blackjack, I cannot state enough that as all your plan really is only gambling.

 

[kewljason]

Bad thread, I agree. This is not a place to discuss business, so lets talk blackjack. What are the chances of turning $5000 into $15000?

You actually need to win $15,000. Turning $5000 into $15,000 is only a net win of $10,000 and would leave you with $55,000. You need to turn $5000 into $20,000, which is even a steeper hill to climb. :sad:

 

[moo321]

My apologizes for misunderstanding. I still recommend you seek other mean of completing your financing.

Seems like it would be a lot easier to get a loan, or a partner, or some other means of financing this. Maybe the current owner would finance the rest of the purchase price out of earnings from the business? This is quite common in business sales.

 

[Southpaw]

As soon as I turned off my PC, I, too, realized that apex had actually meant he wanted to profit by 15,000 (which is different than turing 5k into 15k), even though his words indicated otherwise.

I recalculated his RoR for this case. Check my original post.

SP

You actually need to win $15,000. Turning $5000 into $15,000 is only a net win of $10,000 and would leave you with $55,000. You need to turn $5000 into $20,000, which is even a steeper hill to climb. :sad:

 

[apex]

5k into 15k is Gambling!

Agreed, though it would be better thank putting 5k on red and letting it ride!

Gambling is something I am comfortable with. I have only been playing with an advantage for a little over a month. Before that I was a gambler shooting craps, playing blackjack, and making sports bets.

I have a different approach than a lot of people here. For you pros/semi pros it would be crazy to play 50/400 with a 5k bankroll. For me, it would be...well also crazy but gambling/fun/nerve-racking and potentially help me do something I have been wanting to do for several years. SP calculates that I have nearly a 50% chance of success! Thats higher than I would have thought. Still, I have never risked/lost more than $2000.

I make decent money from my current business and can save another 15k in about 10 months, but the business might be gone by then. I have been looking at businesses for about 18 months and this one looks to be the best fit/deal I have seen so far. It is more like buying a job than a machine that prints 80k per year. I don't expect y'all to understand, but this is how I most want to invest/spend my money. I could probably get the money from my family/friends, but am uncomfortable with that. I could also just play it safe, invest in stocks, try to build my current business, etc. but that isn't what I want to do either.

Anyway, thanks for your thoughts! If I decide to go for it ill let you guys know the results:grin:

 

[Southpaw]

SP calculates that I have nearly a 50% chance of success!

If you check my 2nd edit, you'll see that in theory it's more like 45%. In actuality, I would put it closer to when 35-40% when you account for occasional betting errors, playing errors and maybe even cover.

I am convinced that NO ONE plays like CVData can. I started counting 8 months ago and I have played CVBJ for 4-6 hours per day for over 6 months now, on top of other non-computer practice, yet I still make the occasional betting error or misplay a departure because I was off on my deck estimation slightly (CVBJ, if you don't know already has error flagging features). It is my opinion that these small errors do become significant.

SP

 

[Cass]

In my experience with a spread like that, you would probably have a 10-20% chance of losing it all (5k) on the first session. I have lost 20 top bets in a single session many times. How are you going to feel if you are down $3500 after a couple hours of play? I wouldnt walk into a casino betting like that unless I have at least 9k on me. You are definitely gambling pretty heavy here, but life is a gamble. Just be emotionally prepared to lose it all when you walk into the casino.