Elusive and frustrating
Although the mathematical aspects noted are true and accurate, the shuffle varies slightly from shuffle to shuffle and dealer to dealer. This remains very constant as I notice dealers break down the cards fairly precisely for doing the house shuffle, which remains constant at a given casino. This makes the mathematical breakdown noted in the previous posts sound theory. What will seem to vary greatly are the remaining cards in the shoe that are plugged into the discard rack. Even though it’s the same number of “plugs” of cards going into the discard rack from the remainder of the shoe, their placement is not an exact science and will vary from shuffle to shuffle and from dealer to dealer. Watching these cards getting plugged in closely and determining how this changes where that little group you are concerned about, that astounding run of 9 aces coming out of 12 cards played, that whacky and seemingly endless supply of face cards, etc. means everything, I would think. This plugging of remaining cards into the discard rack is the biggest variable involved.
In around 25 years of playing blackjack, I have become as good as it gets when it comes to counting even to the extent of gauging deviation from basic strategy based on those “neutral cards” not being so very neutral and going way beyond just your basic high/low count. I have gone to great lengths to try and learn to clump track/shuffle track for many long hours for some years now. It seems like the final step, the final thing to be the best possible blackjack player---a “holy grail of blackjack” of sorts…but it has been elusive and frustrating to me. I have practiced eyeing the discard rack, breaking it down by deck, used little pieces of paper (“post-it” notes of various colors) to note placement, separated all the aces in the deck placing them in a random spot and then perform standard house shuffle to see if I can determine where they go to, etc. but I have worked so hard to achieve so little. I have worked on every conceivable method of trying to learn or develop this and in all this time have not gained what I could honestly call any reasonable mastery of it. I avidly read any and all posts on this subject to see if and how they can help me in this regard and this is primarily why I originally joined this group (No, it was not so I could gain criticism of my various “bizarre screed” that shows my insensitivity from Flash and Shad). At best I can determine a “ballpark” of one given clump to place it into the middle of the shoe or to at least avoid having it end up behind the cut card at the end of the shoe. This is not exactly a stellar result given the amount of effort I have put into this.
Zen, other panel of experts…somebody? I have heard of people that do this and are proficient at this---do you know any of them first hand? Can you substantiate what CountNTrack has to say (Obviously he does not play in Atlantic City as I have never seen them simply place the remainder of the shoe on the top of the discard rack and them begin the shuffle, they always as part of the standard house shuffle split the cards up into 3 "plugs" inserted in somewhat even distribution)? Am I chasing a pipedream and this is merely myth and legend? Is it a matter of this not being a clearly definable thing to attain any constant measure of success at? Am I trying for the unattainable and the “holy grail of blackjack” does not actually exist??? Is the monumental effort required much more than any significant advantage that can possibly be attained? Worse yet is the notion that maybe in a few more years of tedious detailed effort I finally gain what can be defined as true ability at this just about the time all casinos go to ASM’s!!! I have worked so hard to achieve so very little at this…it has been elusive and frustrating.