Simple hole carding idea
- Thread starter Ferretnparrot
- Start date
I guess since every card is an independent event, the next card could easily help me or hurt me 50%/50%. But knowing dealer's hole card is a small card has the advantage to stay. I felt I often took a ten that should be his when we both have stiff hands. Later when I figure out he could see the hole card, when both of us had stiff hands, when dealer has ten showing and he stayed, I stayed, too.
I am not familiar with hole carding. I think they should have something like Basic Strategy table. The only scenario I could take advantage of that day is the one like we stay at the stiff hand against dealer's small upcard. In the similar fashion, when dealer's upcard is ten and we know for sure his down card is small, we stayed instead of taking a card. We don't try to make our hands when we know the dealer has to take cards for sure. That is 15% advantage coming from.
Realistically his advantage was probably closer to 5-10% if he was holecarding. It could have been as high as 13% but you probably would have noticed his play sooner if he was playing that aggressively.
Trying to infer the holecard based on his play can be very dangerous. In many cases it will look like he is following regular basic strategy so you won't have anything to go on. In situations where he deviates from regular BS, trying to guess what he saw can easily lead you to a bad play.
There are quite a few different strategies based on how much information the spotter is getting. You probably won't know how much info he is getting (if any) on each hand so you will not know what strategy he is following. There are some cases where you will get enough info from him to make the correct play, but I would guess that the majority of the time he will be giving you little or no information that is helpful to the hand you are holding. There are even a few times when he will be giving you misleading info and causing you to make the wrong play.
This is all assuming that he was a skillful and knowledgeable holecard player. It is much more likely that you were following a lucky ploppy who was making improper plays in the first place.
-Sonny-
Trying to infer the holecard based on his play can be very dangerous. In many cases it will look like he is following regular basic strategy so you won't have anything to go on. In situations where he deviates from regular BS, trying to guess what he saw can easily lead you to a bad play.
There are quite a few different strategies based on how much information the spotter is getting. You probably won't know how much info he is getting (if any) on each hand so you will not know what strategy he is following. There are some cases where you will get enough info from him to make the correct play, but I would guess that the majority of the time he will be giving you little or no information that is helpful to the hand you are holding. There are even a few times when he will be giving you misleading info and causing you to make the wrong play.
This is all assuming that he was a skillful and knowledgeable holecard player. It is much more likely that you were following a lucky ploppy who was making improper plays in the first place.
-Sonny-
The only one scenario I deviate from Basic Strategy/Card Counting that day is when dealer show ten, both of us had stiff hands, if he stayed, I stayed, too. The down card turned out to be small EVERY TIME, eventually all people at the table figured this out. Actually I was the last one joining the bandwagon because I were so stubborn, insisting on using Basic Strategy/True Count to hit my stiff hands when dealer has high upcard shown. Since there is roughly 25% of chance for such hands (dealer high up card vs. player stiff hand), I figure out there is 12.5% advantage solely based on this play alone, plus 2.5% advantage from Blackjack, there should be at least 15% advantage on this game (if you can see the hole card is). The wheel chair is very low. When he plays at the regular table, he can easily see the hole card after a little training. That is the point.
Roulette table chairs work fairly well most of the time, since the roulette tables are usually just a little bit lower than normal tables, but not quite as low as the ones where the dealers actually sit, like baccarat. I've used a slot machine chair a few times before too, but never actually brought the chair to the table myself, since I think that would look pretty bad. I figure that if there is a chair sitting next to the table and I didn't have anything to do with bringing it there, it's free game for me to use. You need to be really careful when using these chairs though, because since you are sitting a lot lower you are probably going to get picked off a lot easier. Easy way to kill a game and probably not worth it IMO unless you actually need it.
Sonny said:
I wish that were true. 
Maybe for other games but not BJ, and nowhere near that for someone inferring the holecard from another player.
-Sonny-
Maybe for other games but not BJ, and nowhere near that for someone inferring the holecard from another player.-Sonny-
The guy in the wheel chair parked on the first base, actually almost on the dealer's side. (Because the wheel chair is so big, it invades the space to the other side.) He was looking UP because the chair is so low. That gives him the perfect view to dealer's down card. Also, he had his nurse or wife place the bets for him so he can park his wheel chair at the perfect spot to see dealer's down card when the dealer slides the card out of the shoe.
Best way to do this is with the blessings of a doctor. Say that your back hurts and you need a wheelchair since you can't walk very far. Might even be able to get a handicapped parking pass too. If I did that, I would not use my handicapped parking pass, instead opting to save it for people who really need it, but I would go around the casino in a wheelchair. If the casino accuses you of cheating or even forces you to move from your "lucky" first base seat, you can threaten to sue under the ADA.
It certainly would appear to be illigal activity. It would appear he repositioned the sign to his advantage. We here, know that if froggy says it wasn't intention and he did not realize it until after the fact, that this is so. His word is golden here. I don't think casino personel or other authorities viewing the tape would be so accepting. :laugh:
