Sims VS Real World Results

k_c

Well-Known Member
#21
MangoJ said:
But I'm not quite sure how the super-compositional deck evolves after drawing a card.
Say, the super-compositional deck contains 1.4 Aces, so after drawing an Ace it should contain 0.4 Aces. But how one draws an Ace on a 0.4 Ace left - obviously the super-compositional deck cannot contain less Aces than zero, but on the other hand should always contain a inter-number of total cards.
(With normal compositional decks this problem does not arise, drawing an 0.0 Ace has zero probability, but drawing an 0.4 Ace has a non-zero probability).
I asked the same question. It seems the answer is this:

If you start with HiLo running count/pen with probabilities based only upon that, with no knowledge of anything else, a set of rank probabilities can be computed. Since at that point no aces (or tens) have been specifically removed prob(T) = 4*prob(A). Now specifically remove an ace. RC=RC-1, pen=pen-1 and compute with 1 ace specifically removed. For 6 decks in the new values prob(A) = 96/23*prob(T). In fact you can continue removing aces and until 24 of them have been specifically removed there is a prob > 0 that an ace can be drawn as long as RC/pen is such that prob of drawing a high card is greater than zero. You are dealing with prob(rank) and not how many of rank are present in this model.

An integral representative composition might be used to somewhat reasonably estimate a starting composition. From that point the dynamics of removing cards relative to a count is different from removing cards from an integral composition.
 
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