Sitting out negative shoes

[Brian]

Hey fellow card counters -
I'm not sure where I read about this technique, but I'm wondering if anyone practices it. When a shoe turns negative, say -4 (TC) or more with half the shoe aleady dealt, I usually "take a break" until the end of the shoe so that I can avoid playing during these times. "Taking a break" means can mean several things: Checking on the wife's play in the slot area, heading to the bathroom, getting a drink, checking for cell phone messages, taking a "fake" phone call, or becoming curious about what's going on at another table that has become noisy. The risk is that you will miss some good play if the shoe suddenly turns positive. But over the course of two or three days I've avoided some terrible playing conditions. When you return, the other players at the table will sometimes tell you voluntarily as to how things went during your absence. You can always take note of their stacks when you leave and when you return to get some idea as to what happened.

 

[AussiePlayer]

Brian, have you read any posts in the card counting forum?

 

[winnawinna]

Hey fellow card counters -
I'm not sure where I read about this technique, but I'm wondering if anyone practices it. When a shoe turns negative, say -4 (TC) or more with half the shoe aleady dealt, I usually "take a break" until the end of the shoe so that I can avoid playing during these times. "Taking a break" means can mean several things: Checking on the wife's play in the slot area, heading to the bathroom, getting a drink, checking for cell phone messages, taking a "fake" phone call, or becoming curious about what's going on at another table that has become noisy. The risk is that you will miss some good play if the shoe suddenly turns positive. But over the course of two or three days I've avoided some terrible playing conditions. When you return, the other players at the table will sometimes tell you voluntarily as to how things went during your absence. You can always take note of their stacks when you leave and when you return to get some idea as to what happened.

Brian a long time AP has said that a shoe has roughly a 20% chance of turning positive after being really negative (TC-3-4). That being said it makes sense to sit out the neg counts. Me however play all and take my chances unless it really tanks (TC >=5). I also play 2 hands which eats up the low cards and lowers my variance.

 

[Gamblor]

I don't think taking a phone call is a good wong out technique.

 

[aslan]

Sometimes it's best just to quit and move to another table. At least, moving provides an alternative to continual bathroom breaks, and you may be able to find a table just getting under way for less down time.

 

[sagefr0g]

I don't think taking a phone call is a good wong out technique.

me either, for real it looks so phoney. pun intended

 

[aslan]

me either, for real it looks so phoney. pun intended

:laugh: :laugh: That's very phuney!

 

[21forme]

me either, for real it looks so phoney. pun intended

It all depends how good your act is. One of the funniest ones I saw was an AP friend of mine wong out with a fake phone call. He was about to sit back down, said "goodbye," etc., then saw a bunch of big cards come out, so he interrupted his fake phone call with a fake second call on call waiting

 

[tthree]

If you are checking your phone like it is ringing and telling the dealer that is not important I'm not going to take it. After about ten of those, when you say this is a work call I have to take it you look a lot more believable.

 

[BJgenius007]

Hey fellow card counters -
I'm not sure where I read about this technique, but I'm wondering if anyone practices it. When a shoe turns negative, say -4 (TC) or more with half the shoe aleady dealt, I usually "take a break" until the end of the shoe so that I can avoid playing during these times. "Taking a break" means can mean several things: Checking on the wife's play in the slot area, heading to the bathroom, getting a drink, checking for cell phone messages, taking a "fake" phone call, or becoming curious about what's going on at another table that has become noisy. The risk is that you will miss some good play if the shoe suddenly turns positive. But over the course of two or three days I've avoided some terrible playing conditions. When you return, the other players at the table will sometimes tell you voluntarily as to how things went during your absence. You can always take note of their stacks when you leave and when you return to get some idea as to what happened.

If you read my stories in the counters' table, you know how much I hate AP who sat out the negative count. There is this mystery casino. All other tables at this casino are either 6 decks or 8 decks. So naturally all counters come to this 2 deck table. But sometimes there is a greedy counter who sat out the negative count. Sometimes he made it worse by saying he felt the shoe is bad or other excuse. Hello, everybody here is a counter. We know you sat out because the count is super negative.

 

[kewljason]

Here's my thoughts on negative counts.....Don't play them!

I think some of you guys are putting too much thought and effort into your act and such. Much of this is wasted on the dealer. The dealer could care less if you are taking a call from your wife, work, or the President calling for your advise. He just dosen't want you on the phone at the table, which is a problem for him. So get up and step away. You don't own him any explanation.

Now back to the OP, Brian. Yes get out of negative counts. But set your target earlier than -4 tc. -4 true counts like +4 true counts happen very infrequently and you will still be playing most of the disadvantageous negative counts. Get out much earlier. I am very aggressive and exit about -1, most people are not that aggressive and go a little longer to maybe -2ish. But get out far before -4.

Winnawinna, says the chances of a -4 count turning positive are 20%. Seems high to me, but ok, I'll accept that, but the goal isn't just a positive count. It is a significantly positive count where we, the player has a decent advantage, maybe +3 or more and the chances of a -4 tc going to +3 tc anytime in that shoe is a lot less than 20%. On the rare occasion that this does happen it will be at the very end for probably just a hand or two and you will have played through many, many negative count hands to get there. Not worth it! (IMO)

Now concerning these bathroom breaks and returning to the same table after 15 minutes just in time for the shuffle. You do know that this is 15 minutes of wasted time, right. And time is money. Far too many players seem somehow attacthed to that particular table and willing to waste 15 minutes like that. I realise some, playing in small venues with only a few table have no choice, but jeez, even a place with 4 tables ought to have another game starting before 15 minutes. Just up and move. Again, you don't owe the dealer an explanation. If you somehow feel you must give one, tell him he feels unlucky to you or he looks like another dealer that hammered you recently.

 

[tthree]

I know this is anecdotal but the last shoe I played started out quickly in negative territory. The TC went down below -2 in a couple rounds of an 8 deck shoe. The cut card was set great on the shoe at about 1 deck so I decided to be patient. After a couple of more decks were played the TC was up to about 3. I count level 2 so that is not that high but you now have an advantage. By the end of the shoe the TC was over +10!! I made about 20 units on that shoe. I never really crushed them on any round but I was playing 2 hands and always won at least one and had a lot of split and doubles thrown in at or near max bet that I won. With worse penetration I would have walked. The point is what is the chance the shoe will recover at the point you consider departing. Penetration is a big factor in that decision.

 

[psyduck]

If you read my stories in the counters' table, you know how much I hate AP who sat out the negative count. There is this mystery casino. All other tables at this casino are either 6 decks or 8 decks. So naturally all counters come to this 2 deck table. But sometimes there is a greedy counter who sat out the negative count. Sometimes he made it worse by saying he felt the shoe is bad or other excuse. Hello, everybody here is a counter. We know you sat out because the count is super negative.

I am just curious. What will the dealer do if every player wants to sit out?

 

[zengrifter]

Hey fellow card counters -
I'm not sure where I read about this technique, but I'm wondering if anyone practices it. When a shoe turns negative, say -4 (TC) or more with half the shoe aleady dealt, I usually "take a break" until the end of the shoe so that I can avoid playing during these times. "Taking a break" means can mean several things: Checking on the wife's play in the slot area, heading to the bathroom, getting a drink, checking for cell phone messages, taking a "fake" phone call, or becoming curious about what's going on at another table that has become noisy. The risk is that you will miss some good play if the shoe suddenly turns positive. But over the course of two or three days I've avoided some terrible playing conditions. When you return, the other players at the table will sometimes tell you voluntarily as to how things went during your absence. You can always take note of their stacks when you leave and when you return to get some idea as to what happened.

That is all good... BUT you should get out much sooner, like -2. If you use the cell-phone angle, try to keep watching so you can get back in, Also, IF there are plenty of other fresh tables, try to go immediately to the next shoe, rather than wait for yours. zg

 

[zengrifter]

me either, for real it looks so phoney. pun intended

Its easy to not look phony with phone. Especially if you stay at the table and make them tell you to back away (keep forgetting the rule). zg

 

[kewljason]

I know this is anecdotal but the last shoe I played started out quickly in negative territory. The TC went down below -2 in a couple rounds of an 8 deck shoe. The cut card was set great on the shoe at about 1 deck so I decided to be patient. After a couple of more decks were played the TC was up to about 3. I count level 2 so that is not that high but you now have an advantage. By the end of the shoe the TC was over +10!! I made about 20 units on that shoe. I never really crushed them on any round but I was playing 2 hands and always won at least one and had a lot of split and doubles thrown in at or near max bet that I won. With worse penetration I would have walked. The point is what is the chance the shoe will recover at the point you consider departing. Penetration is a big factor in that decision.

I will concede, that if you have a situation where the pentration is excellent, you may want to be a little more patient, but that said, if this excellent penetration was casino-wide, or throughout the pit, I would still probably exit. If it was limited to just that dealer, I would be a little more patient.

As for your response in general, I find it amusing when I offer advise, which are always based on longterm results and someone immediately comes back with a situation where he went against it and it worked out. And that is nothing against you, tthree, many folks here do so. It's just a case of I am thinking longterm as I always tend to. I mean you could wong into a table with a negative true count of -5, and hit 3 blackjacks in a row, but guess what? That still doesn't make it a good idea. :laugh:

Longterm thinking. If player A, exits the shoe 1 deck in with a tc of -3 100 times and finds a new shoe and starts to play, while player B continues playing through the original -3 count shoe, 100 times, who will have better long-term results?

 

[kewljason]

That is all good... BUT you should get out much sooner, like -2. If you use the cell-phone angle, try to keep watching so you can get back in, Also, IF there are plenty of other fresh tables, try to go immediately to the next shoe, rather than wait for yours. zg

Or you could have just said, "for once I agree with KJ". :laugh:

 

[tthree]

I will concede, that if you have a situation where the pentration is excellent, you may want to be a little more patient, but that said, if this excellent penetration was casino-wide, or throughout the pit, I would still probably exit. If it was limited to just that dealer, I would be a little more patient.

As for your response in general, I find it amusing when I offer advise, which are always based on longterm results and someone immediately comes back with a situation where he went against it and it worked out. And that is nothing against you, tthree, many folks here do so. It's just a case of I am thinking longterm as I always tend to. I mean you could wong into a table with a negative true count of -5, and hit 3 blackjacks in a row, but guess what? That still doesn't make it a good idea. :laugh:

Longterm thinking. If player A, exits the shoe 1 deck in with a tc of -3 100 times and finds a new shoe and starts to play, while player B continues playing through the original -3 count shoe, 100 times, who will have better long-term results?

That cut was great for the casino and the dealer. I agree with what you are saying. I just wanted people to realize your decision is based on the chance that the shoe will present an opportunity not just the TC. Penetration, how far you have played into the shoe and how close you are to the cut card all factor into your decision. If there are only a round or 2 left in the shoe why walk. If you decide to be patient you want to observe an immediate trend to the positive to continue your patience.

Blackjack attack has a great analysis of your players along with a player C.

 

[winnawinna]

That cut was great for the casino and the dealer. I agree with what you are saying. I just wanted people to realize your decision is based on the chance that the shoe will present an opportunity not just the TC. Penetration, how far you have played into the shoe and how close you are to the cut card all factor into your decision. If there are only a round or 2 left in the shoe why walk. If you decide to be patient you want to observe an immediate trend to the positive to continue your patience.

Blackjack attack has a great analysis of your players along with a player C.

I also play two hands and have to admit that during the neg counts, you usually pull out one hand. Hitting that 14 or 15 against a dealer 10 becomes a whole more interesting. Getting an open table is almost impossible at the stores I play so you need to stick around a bit.

 

[BJgenius007]

I am just curious. What will the dealer do if every player wants to sit out?

It happened all the time at the counters' table. I wish they just shuffled but they didn't.

The dealer just took all the cards from the shoe. Fan out the cards at the table. When someone returned or there was a new comer, he or she put cards back to the the shoe. And the shoe resumes.