Slug values....

R

RJT

Well-Known Member
#1
#1
What i'm looking for is the frequency of occurance of each different count in a random 13 card slug using the hi/lo count and assuming a 6D game.
Any ideas where i can find this? Or can someone produce these figures?

RJT.
 
iCountNTrack

iCountNTrack

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
RJT said:
What i'm looking for is the frequency of occurance of each different count in a random 13 card slug using the hi/lo count and assuming a 6D game.
Any ideas where i can find this? Or can someone produce these figures?

RJT.
Click to expand...
That is not exactly what u looking for but I think it gives you a good idea.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=18835
I am away and don't have access to my computer but I will generate the figures you are looking for over the weekend.
 
R

RJT

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
iCountNTrack said:
That is not exactly what u looking for but I think it gives you a good idea.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=18835
I am away and don't have access to my computer but I will generate the figures you are looking for over the weekend.
Click to expand...
Appreciated ICNT. Unfortunately TC disributions don't suit my purpose. I really should have specified RC in the first place, but i think you'd picked that out anyway.

RJT.
 
K

k_c

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
RJT said:
What i'm looking for is the frequency of occurance of each different count in a random 13 card slug using the hi/lo count and assuming a 6D game.
Any ideas where i can find this? Or can someone produce these figures?

RJT.
Click to expand...
HiLo running count probs of 13 random cards remaining from 6 decks

Prob of running count -13 from 6 decks: 2.64705e-006 (all low, 2-6)
Prob of running count -12 from 6 decks: 2.29411e-005
Prob of running count -11 from 6 decks: 0.000127895
Prob of running count -10 from 6 decks: 0.000512282
Prob of running count -9 from 6 decks: 0.00165149
Prob of running count -8 from 6 decks: 0.0044203
Prob of running count -7 from 6 decks: 0.0101684
Prob of running count -6 from 6 decks: 0.0203849
Prob of running count -5 from 6 decks: 0.0361696
Prob of running count -4 from 6 decks: 0.0571996
Prob of running count -3 from 6 decks: 0.0812695
Prob of running count -2 from 6 decks: 0.104083
Prob of running count -1 from 6 decks: 0.120649
Prob of running count 0 from 6 decks: 0.126676
Prob of running count 1 from 6 decks: 0.120649
Prob of running count 2 from 6 decks: 0.104083
Prob of running count 3 from 6 decks: 0.0812695
Prob of running count 4 from 6 decks: 0.0571996
Prob of running count 5 from 6 decks: 0.0361696
Prob of running count 6 from 6 decks: 0.0203849
Prob of running count 7 from 6 decks: 0.0101684
Prob of running count 8 from 6 decks: 0.0044203
Prob of running count 9 from 6 decks: 0.00165149
Prob of running count 10 from 6 decks: 0.000512282
Prob of running count 11 from 6 decks: 0.000127895
Prob of running count 12 from 6 decks: 2.29411e-005
Prob of running count 13 from 6 decks: 2.64705e-006 (all high, T-A)
 
R

RJT

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
k_c said:
HiLo running count probs of 13 random cards remaining from 6 decks

Prob of running count -13 from 6 decks: 2.64705e-006 (all low, 2-6)
Prob of running count -12 from 6 decks: 2.29411e-005
Prob of running count -11 from 6 decks: 0.000127895
Prob of running count -10 from 6 decks: 0.000512282
Prob of running count -9 from 6 decks: 0.00165149
Prob of running count -8 from 6 decks: 0.0044203
Prob of running count -7 from 6 decks: 0.0101684
Prob of running count -6 from 6 decks: 0.0203849
Prob of running count -5 from 6 decks: 0.0361696
Prob of running count -4 from 6 decks: 0.0571996
Prob of running count -3 from 6 decks: 0.0812695
Prob of running count -2 from 6 decks: 0.104083
Prob of running count -1 from 6 decks: 0.120649
Prob of running count 0 from 6 decks: 0.126676
Prob of running count 1 from 6 decks: 0.120649
Prob of running count 2 from 6 decks: 0.104083
Prob of running count 3 from 6 decks: 0.0812695
Prob of running count 4 from 6 decks: 0.0571996
Prob of running count 5 from 6 decks: 0.0361696
Prob of running count 6 from 6 decks: 0.0203849
Prob of running count 7 from 6 decks: 0.0101684
Prob of running count 8 from 6 decks: 0.0044203
Prob of running count 9 from 6 decks: 0.00165149
Prob of running count 10 from 6 decks: 0.000512282
Prob of running count 11 from 6 decks: 0.000127895
Prob of running count 12 from 6 decks: 2.29411e-005
Prob of running count 13 from 6 decks: 2.64705e-006 (all high, T-A)
Click to expand...
That's exactly what i was looking for. Thanks k_c!

RJT.
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
k_c said:
HiLo running count probs of 13 random cards remaining from 6 decks

Prob of running count -13 from 6 decks: 2.64705e-006 (all low, 2-6)
Prob of running count -12 from 6 decks: 2.29411e-005
Prob of running count -11 from 6 decks: 0.000127895
Prob of running count -10 from 6 decks: 0.000512282
Prob of running count -9 from 6 decks: 0.00165149
Prob of running count -8 from 6 decks: 0.0044203
Prob of running count -7 from 6 decks: 0.0101684
Prob of running count -6 from 6 decks: 0.0203849
Prob of running count -5 from 6 decks: 0.0361696
Prob of running count -4 from 6 decks: 0.0571996
Prob of running count -3 from 6 decks: 0.0812695
Prob of running count -2 from 6 decks: 0.104083
Prob of running count -1 from 6 decks: 0.120649
Prob of running count 0 from 6 decks: 0.126676
Prob of running count 1 from 6 decks: 0.120649
Prob of running count 2 from 6 decks: 0.104083
Prob of running count 3 from 6 decks: 0.0812695
Prob of running count 4 from 6 decks: 0.0571996
Prob of running count 5 from 6 decks: 0.0361696
Prob of running count 6 from 6 decks: 0.0203849
Prob of running count 7 from 6 decks: 0.0101684
Prob of running count 8 from 6 decks: 0.0044203
Prob of running count 9 from 6 decks: 0.00165149
Prob of running count 10 from 6 decks: 0.000512282
Prob of running count 11 from 6 decks: 0.000127895
Prob of running count 12 from 6 decks: 2.29411e-005
Prob of running count 13 from 6 decks: 2.64705e-006 (all high, T-A)
Click to expand...
What would be the probabilities for a slug of 26 cards?
 
K

k_c

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
Additional Data

I've had a request for additional data so I temporarily rewrote my program to output all running counts for a pen of 26 cards remaining so it would output everything at once rather than having to make a separate input for each individual RC.

The program can handle any counting system but a more complicated count such as Wong Halves requires more computing power than I have. I can do Wong Halves for up to 2 decks but no more.

HiLo, 26 cards remain from 6 decks
RC: -26 Prob: 2.54826e-012
RC: -25 Prob: 5.0214e-011
RC: -24 Prob: 5.47908e-010
RC: -23 Prob: 4.24921e-009
RC: -22 Prob: 2.59297e-008
RC: -21 Prob: 1.3137e-007
RC: -20 Prob: 5.71318e-007
RC: -19 Prob: 2.18114e-006
RC: -18 Prob: 7.42867e-006
RC: -17 Prob: 2.28447e-005
RC: -16 Prob: 6.40248e-005
RC: -15 Prob: 0.000164738
RC: -14 Prob: 0.000391471
RC: -13 Prob: 0.000863331
RC: -12 Prob: 0.00177408
RC: -11 Prob: 0.00340834
RC: -10 Prob: 0.00613923
RC: -9 Prob: 0.0103924
RC: -8 Prob: 0.0165661
RC: -7 Prob: 0.0249091
RC: -6 Prob: 0.0353787
RC: -5 Prob: 0.0475201
RC: -4 Prob: 0.0604199
RC: -3 Prob: 0.0727739
RC: -2 Prob: 0.0830832
RC: -1 Prob: 0.0899429
RC: 0 Prob: 0.0923506
RC: 1 Prob: 0.0899429
RC: 2 Prob: 0.0830832
RC: 3 Prob: 0.0727739
RC: 4 Prob: 0.0604199
RC: 5 Prob: 0.0475201
RC: 6 Prob: 0.0353787
RC: 7 Prob: 0.0249091
RC: 8 Prob: 0.0165661
RC: 9 Prob: 0.0103924
RC: 10 Prob: 0.00613923
RC: 11 Prob: 0.00340834
RC: 12 Prob: 0.00177408
RC: 13 Prob: 0.000863331
RC: 14 Prob: 0.000391471
RC: 15 Prob: 0.000164738
RC: 16 Prob: 6.40248e-005
RC: 17 Prob: 2.28447e-005
RC: 18 Prob: 7.42867e-006
RC: 19 Prob: 2.18114e-006
RC: 20 Prob: 5.71318e-007
RC: 21 Prob: 1.3137e-007
RC: 22 Prob: 2.59297e-008
RC: 23 Prob: 4.24921e-009
RC: 24 Prob: 5.47908e-010
RC: 25 Prob: 5.0214e-011
RC: 26 Prob: 2.54826e-012

HiLo, 26 cards remain from 4 decks
RC: -26 Prob: 8.5097e-013
RC: -25 Prob: 1.93093e-011
RC: -24 Prob: 2.34757e-010
RC: -23 Prob: 1.99747e-009
RC: -22 Prob: 1.32257e-008
RC: -21 Prob: 7.21053e-008
RC: -20 Prob: 3.35168e-007
RC: -19 Prob: 1.3599e-006
RC: -18 Prob: 4.89787e-006
RC: -17 Prob: 1.58569e-005
RC: -16 Prob: 4.65965e-005
RC: -15 Prob: 0.000125239
RC: -14 Prob: 0.000309784
RC: -13 Prob: 0.000708772
RC: -12 Prob: 0.00150624
RC: -11 Prob: 0.00298359
RC: -10 Prob: 0.00552471
RC: -9 Prob: 0.00958681
RC: -8 Prob: 0.015622
RC: -7 Prob: 0.0239471
RC: -6 Prob: 0.0345826
RC: -5 Prob: 0.0471061
RC: -4 Prob: 0.0605812
RC: -3 Prob: 0.0736172
RC: -2 Prob: 0.084578
RC: -1 Prob: 0.091908
RC: 0 Prob: 0.0944873
RC: 1 Prob: 0.091908
RC: 2 Prob: 0.084578
RC: 3 Prob: 0.0736172
RC: 4 Prob: 0.0605812
RC: 5 Prob: 0.0471061
RC: 6 Prob: 0.0345826
RC: 7 Prob: 0.0239471
RC: 8 Prob: 0.015622
RC: 9 Prob: 0.00958681
RC: 10 Prob: 0.00552471
RC: 11 Prob: 0.00298359
RC: 12 Prob: 0.00150624
RC: 13 Prob: 0.000708772
RC: 14 Prob: 0.000309784
RC: 15 Prob: 0.000125239
RC: 16 Prob: 4.65965e-005
RC: 17 Prob: 1.58569e-005
RC: 18 Prob: 4.89787e-006
RC: 19 Prob: 1.3599e-006
RC: 20 Prob: 3.35168e-007
RC: 21 Prob: 7.21053e-008
RC: 22 Prob: 1.32257e-008
RC: 23 Prob: 1.99747e-009
RC: 24 Prob: 2.34757e-010
RC: 25 Prob: 1.93093e-011
RC: 26 Prob: 8.5097e-013
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
k_c said:
I've had a request for additional data so I temporarily rewrote my program to output all running counts for a pen of 26 cards remaining so it would output everything at once rather than having to make a separate input for each individual RC.

The program can handle any counting system but a more complicated count such as Wong Halves requires more computing power than I have. I can do Wong Halves for up to 2 decks but no more.

HiLo, 26 cards remain from 6 decks
RC: -26 Prob: 2.54826e-012
RC: -25 Prob: 5.0214e-011
RC: -24 Prob: 5.47908e-010
RC: -23 Prob: 4.24921e-009
RC: -22 Prob: 2.59297e-008
RC: -21 Prob: 1.3137e-007
RC: -20 Prob: 5.71318e-007
RC: -19 Prob: 2.18114e-006
RC: -18 Prob: 7.42867e-006
RC: -17 Prob: 2.28447e-005
RC: -16 Prob: 6.40248e-005
RC: -15 Prob: 0.000164738
RC: -14 Prob: 0.000391471
RC: -13 Prob: 0.000863331
RC: -12 Prob: 0.00177408
RC: -11 Prob: 0.00340834
RC: -10 Prob: 0.00613923
RC: -9 Prob: 0.0103924
RC: -8 Prob: 0.0165661
RC: -7 Prob: 0.0249091
RC: -6 Prob: 0.0353787
RC: -5 Prob: 0.0475201
RC: -4 Prob: 0.0604199
RC: -3 Prob: 0.0727739
RC: -2 Prob: 0.0830832
RC: -1 Prob: 0.0899429
RC: 0 Prob: 0.0923506
RC: 1 Prob: 0.0899429
RC: 2 Prob: 0.0830832
RC: 3 Prob: 0.0727739
RC: 4 Prob: 0.0604199
RC: 5 Prob: 0.0475201
RC: 6 Prob: 0.0353787
RC: 7 Prob: 0.0249091
RC: 8 Prob: 0.0165661
RC: 9 Prob: 0.0103924
RC: 10 Prob: 0.00613923
RC: 11 Prob: 0.00340834
RC: 12 Prob: 0.00177408
RC: 13 Prob: 0.000863331
RC: 14 Prob: 0.000391471
RC: 15 Prob: 0.000164738
RC: 16 Prob: 6.40248e-005
RC: 17 Prob: 2.28447e-005
RC: 18 Prob: 7.42867e-006
RC: 19 Prob: 2.18114e-006
RC: 20 Prob: 5.71318e-007
RC: 21 Prob: 1.3137e-007
RC: 22 Prob: 2.59297e-008
RC: 23 Prob: 4.24921e-009
RC: 24 Prob: 5.47908e-010
RC: 25 Prob: 5.0214e-011
RC: 26 Prob: 2.54826e-012

HiLo, 26 cards remain from 4 decks
RC: -26 Prob: 8.5097e-013
RC: -25 Prob: 1.93093e-011
RC: -24 Prob: 2.34757e-010
RC: -23 Prob: 1.99747e-009
RC: -22 Prob: 1.32257e-008
RC: -21 Prob: 7.21053e-008
RC: -20 Prob: 3.35168e-007
RC: -19 Prob: 1.3599e-006
RC: -18 Prob: 4.89787e-006
RC: -17 Prob: 1.58569e-005
RC: -16 Prob: 4.65965e-005
RC: -15 Prob: 0.000125239
RC: -14 Prob: 0.000309784
RC: -13 Prob: 0.000708772
RC: -12 Prob: 0.00150624
RC: -11 Prob: 0.00298359
RC: -10 Prob: 0.00552471
RC: -9 Prob: 0.00958681
RC: -8 Prob: 0.015622
RC: -7 Prob: 0.0239471
RC: -6 Prob: 0.0345826
RC: -5 Prob: 0.0471061
RC: -4 Prob: 0.0605812
RC: -3 Prob: 0.0736172
RC: -2 Prob: 0.084578
RC: -1 Prob: 0.091908
RC: 0 Prob: 0.0944873
RC: 1 Prob: 0.091908
RC: 2 Prob: 0.084578
RC: 3 Prob: 0.0736172
RC: 4 Prob: 0.0605812
RC: 5 Prob: 0.0471061
RC: 6 Prob: 0.0345826
RC: 7 Prob: 0.0239471
RC: 8 Prob: 0.015622
RC: 9 Prob: 0.00958681
RC: 10 Prob: 0.00552471
RC: 11 Prob: 0.00298359
RC: 12 Prob: 0.00150624
RC: 13 Prob: 0.000708772
RC: 14 Prob: 0.000309784
RC: 15 Prob: 0.000125239
RC: 16 Prob: 4.65965e-005
RC: 17 Prob: 1.58569e-005
RC: 18 Prob: 4.89787e-006
RC: 19 Prob: 1.3599e-006
RC: 20 Prob: 3.35168e-007
RC: 21 Prob: 7.21053e-008
RC: 22 Prob: 1.32257e-008
RC: 23 Prob: 1.99747e-009
RC: 24 Prob: 2.34757e-010
RC: 25 Prob: 1.93093e-011
RC: 26 Prob: 8.5097e-013
Click to expand...
k_c
Can I say in 6-deck that a random half-deck slug will have a value between +3 and +8, or between -3 and -8, 50% of the time?
 
K

k_c

Well-Known Member
#11
#11
aslan said:
k_c
Can I say in 6-deck that a random half-deck slug will have a value between +3 and +8, or between -3 and -8, 50% of the time?
Click to expand...
The probabilities are additive. All of the possible probabilities should sum to 1. I get a sum of a little over .25 for RC=3 to RC=8 or RC=-3 to RC=-8 so a random (26 cards/6 deck) slug RC will be either +3 to +8 or -3 to -8 a little over 50% of the time. (3 <= absolute value of RC <= 8 a little over 50% of the time.)

The assumption is slug is completely random.
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
#12
#12
k_c said:
The probabilities are additive. All of the possible probabilities should sum to 1. I get a sum of a little over .25 for RC=3 to RC=8 or RC=-3 to RC=-8 so a random (26 cards/6 deck) slug RC will be either +3 to +8 or -3 to -8 a little over 50% of the time. (3 <= absolute value of RC <= 8 a little over 50% of the time.)

The assumption is slug is completely random.
Click to expand...
Thank you.
 
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