So I lost 130 units in 3 hours

[fwb]

I lost 245 units today in about 5 hours, playing in some incredible conditions (3-4% adv). Saw the highest count of my life, and my 3 max bets, plus two doubles and a split, got beat by the dealer turning 6 into 21. Then my next 3 max bets got beat by dealer blackjack. **** happens. I'll be back in a couple days.

One of the best articles you could ever read: http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/longrun.htm

 

[Bondy3]

yea, I guess it just means that I do need to have more bankroll, Still variance can feel like a killer

 

[creeping panther]

Maz

So we have a few bj predators here do we? No offense Big Cat but playing your cushy games does not make anyone a predator, it actually makes them a soft domestic feline. Not saying you personally, just in general. Nothing wrong with playing the best games you can, thats what you're supposed to do. But, what makes a cold blooded predator, is being able to rip apart semingly bad games. Fighting for your ap existence against the odds and winning breeds predators. Being hand fed great games in ideal conditions while being a great situation, does not hone the killer instinct it takes to say, beat the A.C. crap. A.C. is very beatable to those that have hardened themselves to play the way needed to not let themselves get force fed the garbage. Getting fat in lean conditions is when you earn the right of being called a killer. Again I take nothing away from those that have a great game to play and take full advantage of it, way to go. But true predators cannot stay long in such places and need to move on, and when they do they need to be able to feed on the harder to beat games as well. As much as I love my food put out for me, I get off on taking it from the unwilling as well.

Thanks for the thoughts

Do we have Predators here....hell Ya! Playing great games does not in my opinion make one weak, it allows you to hone skillz that in trash games you cannot ever get a chance to employ and demands much more from the player in the vastly wider spectrum of strategy deviations, indices, STing etc. because of the choices you are being offered on fine games. AC games and wonging...if you are into standing around and wonging, fine, not my thing, I have better things to do with my time...AC STing, have at it, I know that is your thing... among others, but then again I know there are also some fine 6d HL games in AC, BJC talks of them regularly.

If newbies are into an asm, 75%, h-17, no rsa, no ls game, 6d-8d, and they think they can beat it, and reward the greedy ass casino that offers it, have at it, just don't whine when it rips the great majority of players a new A-hole and puts a big on the casinos bottom line.

Few players have your skillz Maz, few your intelligence, you can probably beat any game,,,most can't even come close. There are not alot of little genuine Maz's running around on these forums and probably never will be.

I have seen so many players, posting through the years, full of excitment and energy, studying, discussing back and forth, and then in time, not a long time.. disappear,,never to be heard from again, I mean.....POOF!!! some I have known personally, some hurt badly financially and emotionally by the experience. It is my intent to let the newbies know that this is not all fun and games, that it is far from easy and for most not attainable. That is the thought I want to place in their heads...others can tell them how sweet it can be, Kewl, step right up, I will tell them something else.

I think JG's Cigar A. magazine article says almost it all.


My Best,
CP

 

[creeping panther]

Rjt

This is fairly irrelevant to a beginner - you're discussing shuffle tracking which is far beyond what any beginner is going to be capable of. In fact it's far beyond what the majority of players will ever be capable of.
With reasonable penetration and good spread you could beat this game simply through counting - which is more achievable for a newbie. Counting isn't going to give a huge advantage and the player will probably never get the number of hands down to reach the long run and therefore guarentee profit, but it is technically possible to beat the game simply by counting. More than that though - i would never encourage a beginner to even attempt the strategies you're suggesting - it's simply bankroll suicide.
I genuinely think counting is little better than gambling - but in reality the loss discussed above is perfectly plausable even when using a counting system that gives the player an edge.
Also the opportunity you're discussing - that being a 6D game with good penetration and a trackable shuffle - is a very rare find inside the US and certainly not something that most players are going to encounter on any regular basis.
I agree with not blowing smoke - hence my recent posts in the New Team thread - but it should be a balanced view of what's achievable and until we know the details of the game (ie the penetration) it's difficult to say how beatable it is with counting.

RJT.

Thanks for the thoughts

My Best,
CP

 

[kewljason]

I have seen so many players, posting through the years, full of excitment and energy, studying, discussing back and forth, and then in time, not a long time.. disappear,,never to be heard from again, I mean.....POOF!!! some I have known personally, some hurt badly financially and emotionally by the experience. It is my intent to let the newbies know that this is not all fun and games, that it is far from easy and for most not attainable. That is the thought I want to place in their heads...others can tell them how sweet it can be, Kewl, step right up, I will tell them something else.
CP

So apparently you have decided to protect people from themselves by painting a gloomy less than favorable picture of the actual facts. I guess thats your right. Just seems in contradiction to a site named "Blackjackinfo" who's intent it is to provide acurate information.

As for me telling them how sweet it can be....well I hardly think that is acurate. I have recently had one newbie, Billythekid, cuss me out for telling him that he was playing a losing game, while another called me a troll for the same. I just try to present them with as acurate of info as I can and let them make their own decisions.

 

[creeping panther]

Kewl

So apparently you have decided to protect people from themselves by painting a gloomy less than favorable picture of the actual facts. I guess thats your right. Just seems in contradiction to a site named "Blackjackinfo" who's intent it is to provide acurate information.

As for me telling them how sweet it can be....well I hardly think that is acurate. I have recently had one newbie, Billythekid, cuss me out for telling him that he was playing a losing game, while another called me a troll for the same. I just try to present them with as acurate of info as I can and let them make their own decisions.

Why are you so threatened by my warnings about playing trash games??

Do you feel that this may reflect on you for some reason, perhaps shaking your confidence........not being an enabler for your activities I have now become your foe? (That is not my intention.)

This is not about you Kewl, it is about others who may be about to make a life decision based on seeing the movie 21...not Kewljason,,,who already has made that decision.


My advice to those wannabees will be to get the Skillz, find fine games, do not give into the casino trickery, work a full time job, and attack BJ as a side project. And..if they must,, travel when possible to where the fine games are. This same advice has been put forward by plenty of others who have been around longer than me and alot wiser too.

My Best,
CP

CP

 

[1357111317]

Thanks for the thoughts

Do we have Predators here....hell Ya! Playing great games does not in my opinion make one weak, it allows you to hone skillz that in trash games you cannot ever get a chance to employ and demands much more from the player in the vastly wider spectrum of strategy deviations, indices, STing etc. because of the choices you are being offered on fine games. AC games and wonging...if you are into standing around and wonging, fine, not my thing, I have better things to do with my time...AC STing, have at it, I know that is your thing... among others, but then again I know there are also some fine 6d HL games in AC, BJC talks of them regularly.

If newbies are into an asm, 75%, h-17, no rsa, no ls game, 6d-8d, and they think they can beat it, and reward the greedy ass casino that offers it, have at it, just don't whine when it rips the great majority of players a new A-hole and puts a big on the casinos bottom line.


My Best,
CP

I think playing bad games hones your skills if you approach them correctly, thinking outside the box, finding ways to beat bad games. Makes you look for new opportunities. If I had a S17 LS and 5/6 game close to me I probably wouldn't havent nearly the skills as i do now. Instead I have a H17 4.5/6 game that I play with a score of ~300. While I agree that new players should not be playing bad games I think we are better off telling them the facts and trying to arm them with better ways of beating the game, IE spreading more, wonging more, using the SC etc.

 

[creeping panther]

135

I think playing bad games hones your skills if you approach them correctly, thinking outside the box, finding ways to beat bad games. Makes you look for new opportunities. If I had a S17 LS and 5/6 game close to me I probably wouldn't havent nearly the skills as i do now. Instead I have a H17 4.5/6 game that I play with a score of ~300. While I agree that new players should not be playing bad games I think we are better off telling them the facts and trying to arm them with better ways of beating the game, IE spreading more, wonging more, using the SC etc.

300 score,,,wow...nice. You must be close to retiring by now:laugh:

CP

 

[1357111317]

300 score,,,wow...nice. You must be close to retiring by now:laugh:

CP

Well unfortunatly they deal very very slowly. And the limits arent anything impressive either.

That number might be a bit high.. or low. I really don't know since I have based it off past results rather than calculated it. It was also calculated using an estimated hands per hour. If they deal less hands per hour then the number is higher and vice versa. 300 might be a bit optimistic but I can guarentee that it is 200 at a minimum.

 

[kewljason]

Why are you so threatened by my warnings about playing trash games??

Do you feel that this may reflect on you for some reason, perhaps shaking your confidence........not being an enabler for your activities I have now become your foe? (That is not my intention.)

This is not about you Kewl, it is about others who may be about to make a life decision based on seeing the movie 21...not Kewljason,,,who already has made that decision.


My advice to those wannabees will be to get the Skillz, find fine games, do not give into the casino trickery, work a full time job, and attack BJ as a side project. And..if they must,, travel when possible to where the fine games are. This same advice has been put forward by plenty of others who have been around longer than me and alot wiser too.

My Best,
CP

CP

I am not at all "threatened" by your warnings. I just feel it irresponsible for you to provide inaccurate information, because you believe it is in thier best interest.

When you tell the OP that the game he is playing, 6d, H17, das, doa, NS can't be beaten whether spreading 1-12, 1-20 or 1-40, its just wrong, factually! Simulations and personal experience and results of myself and other players proves so.

First of all as I said earlier, since there was no mention of penetration, I wonder how you figured out just how bad a game he was playing?

As for foes, well I certainly hope we are not foes. I thought we were just having a discussion here.

ps. I won't even ask about the statement where you told the OP that "you are playing a weak game, you and that game you play, suck." :laugh:

 

[psyduck]

Okay CP and kewljason

I am sure you are both winners at your own game. My impression is CP has access to better games and he would win less if he played Jason's game due to less favorable rules. On the other hand, Jason would win more if he played CP's game.

CP does not recommend Jason's game because the win rate is lower than CP's expectation. I got the impresson that CP plans to have his own casino some day! Am I wrong?

Sorry, I did not mean to disrupt your discussion.

 

[kewljason]

I am sure you are both winners at your own game. My impression is CP has access to better games and he would win less if he played Jason's game due to less favorable rules. On the other hand, Jason would win more if he played CP's game.

CP does not recommend Jason's game because the win rate is lower than CP's expectation. I got the impresson that CP plans to have his own casino some day! Am I wrong?

Sorry, I did not mean to disrupt your discussion.

Whoa! "Jason's game" ?? I am not responsible for those crap games. I just play some of them. Blame Gary Loveman and the other HET exec for some of that crap. :laugh:

CP wouldn't fair worse at the less favorable games, I am pretty sure he would never play them. (correct me if I am wrong CP)

And I am not asking that he recommend anything. As a matter of fact he can recommend that people not play crap games. That's fine. I would recomment that as well. Just don't continually state that you can't beat some games with less favorable conditions, when mathematics prove that you can.

 

[sagefr0g]

yea, I guess it just means that I do need to have more bankroll, Still variance can feel like a killer

i guess you haven't stated what your bankroll is.

what ever, i'd take a breather on this game if it's a $10 min table.

if you play all as your post suggests and if you use some spreads that have been bandied about then:

if you have a ten grand roll and bet a 1:12 spread you'd have circa ror = 22%
at 1:40 spread a circa ror = 38%

if you had a twenty grand roll and bet 1:12 spread you'd have circa ror = 4.2%
at 1:40 spread a circa ror = 14.7%

you'd have from eighty eight thousand hands to forty four thousand hands to N0 with those spreads. the way the typical bj game goes with all the bull crap and slow ass dealers it would take a long, long time to get there.

i doubt you want to put that kind of money to that kind of risk, no?
for a little perspective, most pro's as i understand it would prefer a ror < 1% and by the way many of them don't even play with their own money.

 

[creeping panther]

Kewl,

ps. I won't even ask about the statement where you told the OP that "you are playing a weak game, you and that game you play, suck." :laugh:

Kewl,

You are mistaken, I never told him he sucks,,,,not my style, that is wrong and misleading...FACTUALLY, and irresponsible.

CP

 

[psyduck]

Whoa! "Jason's game" ?? I am not responsible for those crap games. I just play some of them. Blame Gary Loveman and the other HET exec for some of that crap. :laugh:

I meant the game you have access to or are kind of forced to play.

 

[RJT]

You are playing a weak game...you...and that game you play,, sucks,,,,

CP

CP - I understand that may not have been what you meant, but the above quote kinda comes across that way.....


RJT.

 

[Blue Efficacy]

I get more money playing the one pass shuffle 3.2/4 game, but I get more satisfaction shuffle tracking the two pass 2.8/4 game with a stepladder.

I definitely feel more like a predator when I play the latter heads up and somehow the count is negative when I reach the cutcard each time :grin:

But of course I am only human and thus spend more time with the former as it is much less mentally taxing. We could all learn to shuffletrack if we all had good shuffles. But I feel much more accomplished as an AP knowing I can take on something more difficult.

Of course I have a special trick I use to tackle the stepladder.