Spreading to multiple hands - Short answer questions

Dipsy

Dipsy

Member
#1
#1
This kind of question is probably asked a lot, but can you give advice to my situation?

GAME RULE:
4d
S17
BJ 3:2
DoA
NDAS
HSA
No resplit
SL
pen 50%

This blackjack machine in my local shop is countable and no virtually no heat, because rarely anyone plays it, so I can do whatever I like, like spreading from $1 to $50 (that's the "table" min and max) and playing 2 spots.

After some simming, my win rate is $13/hr betting optimally,
TC <1 = $1
1 = $10
2 = $20
3 = $30
4 = $40
5 = $50

I consider this win rate to be too low, and would like to spread to 2 hands of $50 at tc 5. How do I tweak my ramp? Sorry I don't know how this can be simmed in powersim.


Q1. I know that ramp 2 has less volatility but which ramp is superior when the effect of "eating up cards" is taken into account?

ramp1
TC
1 20
2 40
3 30x2
4 40x2
5 50x2

ramp2
TC 2 hands of
1 10
2 20
3 30
4 40
5 50

Q2. Is one of the ramps in Q1 close to optimal? The optimal ramp should double the win rate with the least increase in variance. If not please give advice!

Q3. Should I play 1 or 2 spots at - counts?

Q4. Is a $10,000 BR OK for this? (less than 5% RoR?)
 
Last edited:
J

jopke

Active Member
#2
#2
What are the rules for the game, how many decks, etc.

Also, what count system are you using?

Those will impact the optimal ramp and ROR calcs
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
#6
#6
Not simmed, just guess :

Questions -
Can we force a shuffle at anytime?
Or, wongout?
Can we bet 3 hands?

+1 - $10
+2 - $20x2
+3 - $30x2
+4 - $40x2
+5 - $50x2

Guess = $20/hr w/$7k BR req.
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
#7
#7
zengrifter said:
Not simmed, just guess :

+1 - $10
+2 - $20x2
+3 - $30x2
+4 - $40x2
+5 - $50x2

Guess = $20/hr w/$7k BR req.
Click to expand...
If someone would be so kind as to sim, I'd like to see how far off my guestimate was. zg
 
Dog Hand

Dog Hand

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
Some Answers

Dipsy,

Using CVData, I simmed a heads-up player using HiLo with I18 & Fab4 for a 4D, S17, DA2, NoDAS, HSA, Spl1, SpA1, LS (I assumed "SL" meant Late Surrender) game with 50% pen.

With your original 1-hand spread ($1 at 0 & below, $10xTC up to +5), CVData gives a winrate of $7.02/hr with an IBA of 1.224% and a c-SCORE of 30.11. Using CVCX, I find that betting $21 at +2, $33 at +3, $45 at +4, and $50 at +5 and up increases the winrate to $7.46/hr, with an IBA of 1.244%. A bankroll of $2500 gives a RoR of 13.3%. A $10K BR gives a RoR of 0.03%.

With your Ramp 2 (same as your original ramp, but playing two hands at positive TC's), CVData gives a WR of $10.66, an IBA of 1.255%, and a c-SCORE of 33.58. When I called CVCX, it suggested 1x$1 at 0 and below, 2x$11 at +1, 2x$25 at +2, 2x$37 at +3, and 2x$50 at +4 and above, for a WR of $12.48, an IBA of 1.267%, and a RoR of 0.5% for a $10K BR.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
#9
#9
Dog Hand said:
With your Ramp 2 (same as your original ramp, but playing two hands at positive TC's), CVData gives a WR of $10.66, an IBA of 1.255%, and a c-SCORE of 33.58. When I called CVCX, it suggested 1x$1 at 0 and below, 2x$11 at +1, 2x$25 at +2, 2x$37 at +3, and 2x$50 at +4 and above, for a WR of $12.48, an IBA of 1.267%, and a RoR of 0.5% for a $10K BR.
Click to expand...
My guesstimate was based on the assumed reliability of Dipsy's CV result. zg
 
B

BJgenius007

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
Dipsy said:
This kind of question is probably asked a lot, but can you give advice to my situation?

GAME RULE:
4d
S17
BJ 3:2
DoA
NDAS
HSA
No resplit
SL
pen 50%

This blackjack machine in my local shop is countable and no virtually no heat, because rarely anyone plays it, so I can do whatever I like, like spreading from $1 to $50 (that's the "table" min and max) and playing 2 spots.

After some simming, my win rate is $13/hr betting optimally,
TC <1 = $1
1 = $10
2 = $20
3 = $30
4 = $40
5 = $50

I consider this win rate to be too low, and would like to spread to 2 hands of $50 at tc 5. How do I tweak my ramp? Sorry I don't know how this can be simmed in powersim.


Q1. I know that ramp 2 has less volatility but which ramp is superior when the effect of "eating up cards" is taken into account?

ramp1
TC
1 20
2 40
3 30x2
4 40x2
5 50x2

ramp2
TC 2 hands of
1 10
2 20
3 30
4 40
5 50

Q2. Is one of the ramps in Q1 close to optimal? The optimal ramp should double the win rate with the least increase in variance. If not please give advice!

Q3. Should I play 1 or 2 spots at - counts?

Q4. Is a $10,000 BR OK for this? (less than 5% RoR?)
Click to expand...
When TC=+1, you don't have advantage. When TC=+2, your advantage is 0.5%, considering margin of the errors, I don't think you should play 2 hands. So this is my recommendation:

ramp 3:
TC Bet
+1 1
+2 10
+3 50x2
+4 50x2
+5 50x2

This will make you look less like a counter. I saw many Asians bet this way. They have two bet sizes. One table minimal and the other extreme high.
 
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