Streaks? Am I thinking like a ploppy?

Mr. T

Well-Known Member
#61
Renzey said:
Bojack,
Thank you for your view. It will be considered in the heart. I also welcome all others.

Mr. T,
Actually, I am not a true professional player, but a scientifically fanatical amateur who plays a couple of times a week -- the way some people play golf.

P.S. -- What about observing a player who is flirting with the idea of perhaps doubling down with say, 10 vs. 9? Would it be immoral to encourage him to do it by offering to go halves with him?

By his doubling for only half, he will now actually net a smaller EV than by just hitting -- but you will pick up a +7% EV that you never would've had. These things can creep into a grayish ethical area, unless you resolve stay out of others' hands.
Bojack,

You are right on the money. If the casino shows some weakness by flashing his hole card I try and knock out the casino by taking whatever money the casino has.

Renzey
Would it be immoral to encourage him to do it by offering to go halves with him?

Yes it would be immoral. Honesty or transparentcy dictates that. First of all you have to let him know where you are coming from. Let him know that according to the book and BS what the right play is. Then ask him if he want to try it you can go 50/50 with him. I myself would not do it because if you lose the bet some people will scew you for it.
 

Renzey

Well-Known Member
#62
Mr. T said:
Would it be immoral to encourage him to do it by offering to go halves with him?
I myself would not do it because if you lose the bet some people will screw you for it.
Interesting and thought-provoking thread -- I think!
Regarding hand interaction among players, I've found that the higher the table minimum, the more players like to get involved in these things. Seems nearly everyone's got an opinion and is willing to wheel and deal. Sometimes, deals are made several times per shoe.

I have never been involved in a disagreement over the result since I began specifying that we go full 50-50 partners on an entire split -- re-splits and doubles included. Sometimes it gets complicated when the partner refuses to double something like a resulting A/7 vs. 3 on split 7's. Then I just have to say, "Okay, then I'll have 2/3rds of whatever's left out here when it's over." Occasionally, it has even gone to 3/4ths. But it's always been settled amiably.

4 recent examples:
At a 2-handed table, third base went bust and asked the floorman for a marker. He then pushed the entire buy-in into the betting circle and was dealt 11 vs. 10. He turned to me and said, "I'm not takin' any more money -- do you wanna' double this?" I said, "Thanks, but what happens if you catch a small card?" He paused and said, "Yeah -- that's right!" We both then decided that he'd better go this one alone.

In a high limit room I was dealt 7/7 vs. 2 with a multi-unit bet up and paused a few seconds. The only other player encouraged, "Make money, make money!" I said, "I hate this hand -- I think it's a loser! He replied, "It's a great split, I'll buy the whole blankity-blank hand if you don't wanna' do it!" I said, "I think you'd be takin' the worst of it, but if you like it, be my guest". He bought it all. Don't remember the outcome.

A player was progressing his bets and had won maybe 4 in a row. He was now up to maybe a 7 unit bet and was dealt 11 vs. 5. Surprisingly, he hemmed and hawed. In near disbelif, I asked, "You're not gonna' double that?" He answered, "If I lose a double here, I'll be down on the whole run. Go 'head and take it if you want." I reminded him, "You're a big favorite on this hand -- what'ya' gonna be on the next one?" He answered, " Okay, I'll go for 3 -- I gotta save some profit." I took the rest.

There's a man at a local house who simply sits at the higher tables with a stack of chips and almost never plays a hand of his own. He just schmoozes the floorladies and kabitzes sports with the players. Whenever a scavenging opportunity arises, he manages to often get a piece of somebody's double or basic strategy split. That's basically his game! I have sold him pieces of my small pairs against small up-cards. I have to say, I don't feel guilty about it.

Reading all the posts, I can see other peoples' sides to some extent. I hope you can see mine.
 

tribute

Well-Known Member
#63
Katweezel said:
Once, two suits arrived at my BJ table and stood behind me. One said to me: "Sir; we noticed you made an error recently and the dealer did not pick it up." The dealer was then instructed to hand over $200 in chips to me. )

I'm not sure what happened here. If the player made a mistake, why was the dealer instructed to give him $200? What was the error?
 
#64
StandardDeviant said:
"Streaks" only exist in the past and have no predictive properties in BJ or other fair games involving chance.

I'm always amused by the people playing baccarat who so carefully track the streaks to make their next move. What a waste.
Isn't playing basic strategy a little like betting on a streak, that by following basic strategy, the odds will be in your favor every hand yet to be dealt? What about a shoe after the dealer burns a card. Isn't the group of 311 remaining cards a streak.

Which reminds me. Last Sunday was the 1st annual sheet wash. Sorry if you missed it. I forgot to report in until today.

I hope you're not the type to know the shape, size, and how the Universe begins and ends based on the information by those who control it's shape, size, and how it began and ends.
 
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ycming

Well-Known Member
#65
Leaveawinner said:
Isn't playing basic strategy a little like betting on a streak, that by following basic strategy, the odds will be in your favor every hand yet to be dealt? What about a shoe after the dealer burns a card. Isn't the group of 311 remaining cards a streak.

Which reminds me. Last Sunday was the 1st annual sheet wash. Sorry if you missed it. I forgot to report in until today.

I hope you're not the type to know the shape, size, and how the Universe begins and ends based on the information by those who control it's shape, size, and how it began and ends.
Pro bj by stanford wong has proved that the outcome of the current hand does not depend on the previous 2 hands ... page 239..


Ming
 

Billy C1

Well-Known Member
#66
Lonesome Gambler said:
p.s. Sorry for derailing the thread!
Thanks for "derailing" it. I've been curious to know other members thoughts about the ethicalness of holecarding for some time.
For me, it comes down to how much effort is put in to making it work. If a dealer inadvertently shows it, how can I not use the help playing that hand? That's where I draw the line and make no EFFORT to ever see it.
If a dealer showed it on a regular basis would I walk away? Probably not. The pit critters get paid to watch for such happenings so the opportunity would be quite short lived.
I'm also curious about shuffle tracking (ethical in my mind). The success rate must wildly vary, being so dealer dependent. Right?

BillyC1
 
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