Taking insurance on a Blackjack

[ihate17]

He is a dealer, he knows no better

So, should we assume that the original poster was just trying to lead us astray? Or just giving another opinion?

The vast majority of dealers learned how to play blackjack from the poor players they deal too. Insurance (or even money) becomes a good bet when the count is over +3 but a poor bet at a count under. Since most players do not count and since basic strategy is not based upon a count, insuring a blackjack is a very poor bet.
Now if they removed all of one of these 2-9 from the stack and there were 12 denominations of cards with 4 of them being 10's, then insurance would be an even money proposition off the top. Since we have 13 it is poor.

But when the big bet theory is thrown out there:
The counter knows the count means take even money.
The basic strategy player may take even money because he wants to get paid on the big bet, it may be wrong but it is understandible.

ihate17

 

[eps6724]

But in their yearly gambling column,it always says take even money on BJ against an Ace.I assume they are ill-informed,not deceitful.
I've met very few dealers who give proper advice, but I think most of them are well-intentioned.

Interesting. I am still learning, but I can't think of anything I've read where insurance was mentioned as anything but a scam unless it could be substantiated by the count. For that matter, I can't think of anyplace where a dealer has been listed as really knowing what they were talking about. Nice guys all, but rather untrustworthy in their advice!

-EPS

 

[ScottH]

I hope he was not intentionally giving bad advice,but who knows.
I have subscribed to a newsletter called The Bottom Line for many years and made quite a bit of money off some of their advice. But in their yearly gambling column,it always says take even money on BJ against an Ace.I assume they are ill-informed,not deceitful.
I've met very few dealers who give proper advice, but I think most of them are well-intentioned.

They probably give "ploppie" advice because the mass of blackjack players are ploppies. Nobody wants to hear that they are wrong, so they publish bad advice. Or it could be that they just dont know any better as well.

 

[shadroch]

They probably give "ploppie" advice because the mass of blackjack players are ploppies. Nobody wants to hear that they are wrong, so they publish bad advice. Or it could be that they just dont know any better as well.

Their advice is intended to help the casual player last longer,and lose at a slower pace.Its intended for the businessman attending a convention.

 

[Mr. T]

Where I play just about everybody buy Insurance.
I have been adviced by the dealers once or twice that I should buy insurance. I don't actually see this as the dealers advice, but for my own good he is telling me that if I don't, the other players would see me as a weird player and a possible spoiler of the game to all the other players.

 

[eps6724]

I have subscribed to a newsletter called The Bottom Line for many years and made quite a bit of money off some of their advice..

Which newsletter would this be? I did a google search, and...well, let's just say that the description of the mag was...well, descriptive...

 

[mdlbj]

Yes, I understand. Hence my curiosity about EVER having such a monster bet out that you would even question an insurance bet. Given that a large bet is out SHOULD indicate that the count warrents an even money call, anyway, seems that for counters this would be a rather redundant idea.

The post about having a bj against an ace up is 1 in 13, however, might beg the question-at what point does insuring THAT be worthwhile, or wouldn't it still just be by the count? (Did any of this even make sense?)

-EPS

It would be based on the count. A true count @ +3. Yet at the same time, with a 50 to 100k bet out there. I would lean towards insuring the bet no matter that the count.

 

[shadroch]

Where I play just about everybody buy Insurance.
I have been adviced by the dealers once or twice that I should buy insurance. I don't actually see this as the dealers advice, but for my own good he is telling me that if I don't, the other players would see me as a weird player and a possible spoiler of the game to all the other players.

how could taking or not taking insurance affect the other players?It doesn't even effect the sacred flow of the cards?

 

[NDN21]

I think we need to examine this question from a different angle than has already been discussed.

So far everyone has talked about the angle of right then and there, the moment the decision of insurance has to be made.

I would like to address the moments after you win/push the blackjack. If $100,000 is such a large and disproportionate bet that you would insure it no matter the circumstances then I feel you should address what is going to be done with the money once the bet is won.

If all you are going to do with the winnings (either $100,000 or $150,000) is to keep gambling at such a high bet amount (for you by definition outlined in the quesiton) then I feel that the player is better off just trying to going for the 3:2 blackjack. If you are going to continue to gamble at this amount then what better conditions are you going to get? The shoe is already in a great condition with a very high count (you wouldn't make such a extraordinarily high bet with a negative count, would you?) and you already have a blackjack, all that you are waiting for is to see if it is a push or a win. If you are going to keep gambling at this very high bet amount then just go for the unpushed blackjack, you won't find better conditions.

However if you are going to back off big-time on the amount you bet (down to $5,000) or even quit for the day then perhaps you should just go ahead and take the for sure win, especially if you are going to do something worthwhile and substantially life-changing with the money like pay down on a house.

I would seriously consider what I was going to do with the winnings when I consider taking insurance or not.

 

[blck90vette]

all intresting replies,,,first of all, i`m not trying to lead anyone astray from this posting,,,let`s be real, not every bj player is a professional counter,,and for sure we all aren`t going to make 50,000 dollar bets,,,all i`m saying is, a win, is a win, is a win, whether it`s a 50 dollar bet, a 100 dollar bet,75 dollar bet etc.....i mean alot you agreed you would take insurance on a HUGE bet,,,so why not on a moderate bet,,,like i said this is just my opinion and i appreciate hearing yours,,and "XFILES",,In my years of dealing, i could show you cheating moves,that would blow you away,,,,,

 

[shadroch]

Which newsletter would this be? I did a google search, and...well, let's just say that the description of the mag was...well, descriptive...

Bottom Line Personal.and I've subscribed to BL Health on and off as well. Quite often,the free gifts you get for subscribing dwarf the cost of the subscription.

 

[Mr. T]

how could taking or not taking insurance affect the other players?It doesn't even effect the sacred flow of the cards?

It doesn't affect the flow of cards, but the other players would see this as having a weird player and a possible spoiler of the game in their midst.

 

[mdlbj]

all intresting replies,,,first of all, i`m not trying to lead anyone astray from this posting,,,let`s be real, not every bj player is a professional counter,,and for sure we all aren`t going to make 50,000 dollar bets,,,all i`m saying is, a win, is a win, is a win, whether it`s a 50 dollar bet, a 100 dollar bet,75 dollar bet etc.....i mean alot you agreed you would take insurance on a HUGE bet,,,so why not on a moderate bet,,,like i said this is just my opinion and i appreciate hearing yours,,and "XFILES",,In my years of dealing, i could show you cheating moves,that would blow you away,,,,,

Usually with a 50k bet out its spread over a few betting spots, not on one spot. I do follow my insurance practices no matter what the bet size yet, guaranteeing that you will at least have even money. . Insuring with a high count is playing with mathematical facts and making sure you will get at least even money. I nor anyone I know has ever place 50k on one spot.

Film your cheating moves and put them on youtube.. Would like to see it.

 

[eps6724]

I remember reading in Blackbelt for Blackjack that Snyder insured a blackjack even tho the count didn't call for it, but because he had a certain amount of money he was after, he was very close, he was at the end of his playing time, and an insured even money) blackjack guaranteed the money. So, maybe the question should be-when (outside of the count) would YOU insure a bj?

This, of course, would be a personal choice, and would be interesting to hear from seasoned players on their personal ideas.

 

[ihate17]

I think you are sincere, but just wrong

all intresting replies,,,first of all, i`m not trying to lead anyone astray from this posting,,,let`s be real, not every bj player is a professional counter,,and for sure we all aren`t going to make 50,000 dollar bets,,,all i`m saying is, a win, is a win, is a win, whether it`s a 50 dollar bet, a 100 dollar bet,75 dollar bet etc.....i mean alot you agreed you would take insurance on a HUGE bet,,,so why not on a moderate bet,,,like i said this is just my opinion and i appreciate hearing yours,,and "XFILES",,In my years of dealing, i could show you cheating moves,that would blow you away,,,,,

It is a high house advantage bet for the non counter. When the question of a huge bet comes up, then I certainly understand the personal choice to take the money.
So you are promoting more money for the house by not understanding that you will only have a blackjack when showing an ace 4 of 13 times. If it were 4 of 12, then even money would be an even bet.

At the same time, as a card counter who has done this for nearly 30 years, I also understand that players making mistakes like taking even money adds to the houses profits, which helps keep the game playable for me. So I would never, unless asked by a player, say anything to you if you gave that advice on a table we were sharing but this is a place where people exchange ideas on improving their net results in blackjack and not their results from one single hand.

ihate17

 

[xfiles]

all intresting replies,,,first of all, i`m not trying to lead anyone astray from this posting,,,let`s be real, not every bj player is a professional counter,,and for sure we all aren`t going to make 50,000 dollar bets,,,all i`m saying is, a win, is a win, is a win, whether it`s a 50 dollar bet, a 100 dollar bet,75 dollar bet etc.....i mean alot you agreed you would take insurance on a HUGE bet,,,so why not on a moderate bet,,,like i said this is just my opinion and i appreciate hearing yours,,and "XFILES",,In my years of dealing, i could show you cheating moves,that would blow you away,,,,,

I KNEW IT !!!!!

You should write a book ! You could make a million .

 

[supercoolmancool]

Like Zengrifter said, regardless of the count, if you have a huge bet like 6% or more of your bankroll, then taking even money is the correct play.

 

[RJT]

But doesn't this offset the return? If a 3:2 BJ is such an addition to a counter,wouldn't insuring every bj just negate it and make it as good as a 6:5 game?

-EPS

Sorry ESP, i should have been more clear. I always insure my blackjack's against a dealer A. I would not take insurence on any other hand than blackjack. As getting a BJ against a dealer A is fairly uncommon hand it is a low cost cover play and doesn't nearly undo the 3:2 advantage (especially if you consider that if i have a high bet out, the count is clearly high so in most instances it's the right play to make). If you want the figures for that play - and others like it - pick up a copy of Ian Andersen's Burning the Tables in Las Vegas. One of my most highly recommended books from one of the world's best players with all the maths and sims done by Stanford Wong.

RJT.

 

[eps6724]

Sorry ESP, i should have been more clear. I always insure my blackjack's against a dealer A. I would not take insurence on any other hand than blackjack. As getting a BJ against a dealer A is fairly uncommon hand it is a low cost cover play and doesn't nearly undo the 3:2 advantage

RJT.

RJT:
O.K., that makes sense. Do you (personally) EVER insure a non-bj hand even when the count calls for it?
Thanks!

EPS

 

[RJT]

Insurance is a play that is a huge giveaway if they are watching your play. Infact from my understanding of such things, it is one of the plays that they use as a key indicator when they are looking for a counter. However if i was playing by the count, yes i certainly would take insurance. It is a very profitable play in the right circumstances.
As the games i play are trackable and i play through high card packets rather than playing by the count, it doesn't have the same giveaway qualities - as when i'm betting high it's often the inverse of what the count would dictate.

RJT.