Tales of a new counter

[21gunsalute]

Just read a little further down. He changed his mind.

Originally Posted by MrSmith

It all started because a friend has been counting for years and has won a substantial amount. He uses the Hi-Lo count so that's what I decided to learn.
...
I continued practicing counting down a full deck and playing 21 Pro several hours a day for 2 weeks before I decided to purchase the book Color of Blackjack. After reading the book I decided this was the strategy for me.

I take it this is a KO book then. I didn't know that. I think this had a lot of us confused.

 

[Zero]

I take it this is a KO book then. I didn't know that. I think this had a lot of us confused.

That's understandable. And I'd call Color of Blackjack a TKO book, or at least one man's vision of TKO, but Vancura and Fuchs should still be considered a prerequisite.

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[Young Man]

The Color of Blackjack book starts the IRC at Zero for a freshly shuffled deck or shoe.

Haven't read that book but under the KO system for 6 decks you begin at minus 20 for a shuffled shoe.

 

[MrSmith]

Hi MrSmith, welcome to the forums. Not sure if this is the kind of feedback you're looking for but if you played 100 hands/hr during those 33 hours, you're about 1.7 standard deviations away from expected (or 4.25%). If you played less, say 60 hands/hr, you're quite a bit further out at 2.3 standard deviations (or 1%). If it's closer to the later I believe the chances are greater that there's a problem with your game than you're experiencing that level of variance (which I interpret as anything > 2).

Note: I had to make a few assumptions about your ramp of 1-7.5 as it would map to the 1-10 spread for 6D on COB, to come up with a win rate of $.08/hand and a Std Dev of $30.337/hand.


Color of Blackjack was given a rave review by Ken himself.

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Actually, this is exactly the kind of feedback I'm looking for. Am I correct in assuming that your data suggests I was making counting errors? What do you suspect is the most likely cause? I'm determined to find any errors I may have made. Any suggestions welcome. Thanks!

 

[MrSmith]

Haven't read that book but under the KO system for 6 decks you begin at minus 20 for a shuffled shoe.

The Color of Blackjack system has already taken that into account. The link to the bet ramp chart below may help clear up the confusion. The way I understand the system is that instead of starting at -20 and placing a big bet at +4 with the KO System the Color of Blackjack system starts at 0 and big bets are placed at +24. You arrive at the same relative number. See links below.

Here is link to all the charts:
(Dead link: http://www.thecolorofblackjack.com/charts/index.html)

Direct link to 6 deck shoe bet ramp chart:
(Dead link: http://www.thecolorofblackjack.com/charts/pdfs/deck-6-bet-ramp.pdf)

IRC starts at 0. TC conversion done for you by the chart by deck estimation and RC without having to do this formula in your head between each hand.

TC = [RC - (4*Decks played)]/Decks Unplayed

If you pick any point on the chart and run it through the formula you end up with a cold zone = house advantge, warm zone = slight player advantage, and Hot zone = big player advantage. Must adjust RC for initial house advantage based on game rules you decide to play. The first paragraph of the first link above explains it better than I just did.

 

[kewljason]

First of all, welcome to you MrSmith. Off the top of my head, your losses seem pretty severe to me for the amount of time played. I am not going to try to make a judgement as to whether you are doing anything wrong or have just had the misfourtune to start out with horrible negative varience, but I did notice that you had 3 sessions of longer than 2 hours. They were all losing sessions and account for over 70% of your total losses. This could be significant because while we all sometimes think we are playing well, we are in fact human, (at least most here are) and as such are prone to making mistakes and mistakes occur more frequently when you get tired. Also discipline breaks down easier during marathon sessions when a player gets tired. Not speaking of you specifically...just stating a fact. For a relatively new player, sessions of more than 2 hours seems a lot. Most serious experienced players know to take frequent break, even if for only 15 minutes to clear your head.

 

[Thunder]

Given your spread, your losses seem highly unusual. I'm a bit skeptical that it is simply variance. IMO, Hi-Lo is the better count to use anyway because it will have you betting more at times earlier in the shoe whereas KO tends to have you betting more later in the shoe. If you feel you're getting crushed, it never hurts to take a break and maybe try another table. You can see my story from several days ago for an example.

 

[MrSmith]

Thanks Thunder. I read your post and it reads like the autobiography of my $1830 loss. Big counts everywhere and couldn't win a hand to save my life. I completely trusted the math and against my better judgement I kept sitting there and pulling out money. If I had it to do all over again I guess I would do the same thing. I've spent hours trying to get to high counts. I had a buddy with me and we both agreed the counts were there but I just couldn't catch a break. Not only did I lose every 19 & 20 I was dealt but the dealer was pulling 4 & 5 card 21's into TC6. Before I started counting I would have walked away down about $200 at most so it really rattled my confidence. As you can see I regrouped 2 days later and promptly lost another $450 in the exact same conditions. High counts, big bets, couldn't win a hand. I guess there's nothing you can do but suffer through it.

Without going into boring detail, I've been able to win about $1000 back since my last post. If I get up $200 regardless of time or if I'm there over 2 hours I just leave. It's very refreshing to have high counts finally payoff, though. I've had to scale back my big bets due to bankroll destruction but I'm excited to play again.

Thank you, everyone, for your thoughts and feedback. It has forced me to further analyze my play and delve deeper into the mechanics of card counting. I hope to have enough knowledge to contribute to the forum soon. Thanks.

 

[CoolMike]

I think your spread is too small Mr. Smith.

Do you have the CV Suite to run a sim? 1-5 probably gets you just above break even, and 1-7.5 probably gives you a decent yet small edge. I wouldn't be surprised if your ROR was close to 40% given your recently damaged bankroll. Anyways, see if you can set up a sim of your play and just double check to make sure your happy with the edge you have created for yourself by counting.

Perhaps you could try playing the ultra-wonging game for now. Back count until the count would normally call for a 2 unit bet, and then jump in. In this sense you get to use a 'phantom unit' that is half of the table min (you should set your standard unit to table min with such a small bankroll). Now your spread effectively doubles and your max bet stays the same. You will have to wong back out after either 2 rounds or after the count drops back down to the point where you would have to place a single unit bet, whichever is the longer. Use whatever act or cover you think is necessary to make this happen. For what its worth, I've back counted excessively at some east coast properties and not had any real problems. One thing is you will find that you don't end up playing a lot of hands, but at least you will know that your playing with a decent edge. In terms of dollar per hour blackjack just doesn't make sense with a small BR anyways, so take your time and try and build it up slowly.

Good luck at the tables!

Edited to add: I just wanted to add some more advice: A 1-10 or 1-12 bet spread is probably a more exceptable target for you once you get your bankroll built up a little.

 

[metronome]

Given your spread, your losses seem highly unusual. I'm a bit skeptical that it is simply variance. IMO, Hi-Lo is the better count to use anyway because it will have you betting more at times earlier in the shoe whereas KO tends to have you betting more later in the shoe. If you feel you're getting crushed, it never hurts to take a break and maybe try another table. You can see my story from several days ago for an example.

You are correct Thunder re: KO. The Color Of Blackjack takes that recognized fact and morphs KO into a TKO. That is where the "warm line", "hot line" connotation comes from. Earlier betting opportunities.
Mr.Smith, buy Vancura & Fuchs' book, and then re-visit Dravots book. Pay particular attention to Vancura & Fuchs version of the Illustrious 18.

 

[MrSmith]

You are correct Thunder re: KO. The Color Of Blackjack takes that recognized fact and morphs KO into a TKO. That is where the "warm line", "hot line" connotation comes from. Earlier betting opportunities.
Mr.Smith, buy Vancura & Fuchs' book, and then re-visit Dravots book. Pay particular attention to Vancura & Fuchs version of the Illustrious 18.

Great advice. I'm going to buy it online right now. Thanks.

 

[MrSmith]

I think your spread is too small Mr. Smith.

Do you have the CV Suite to run a sim? 1-5 probably gets you just above break even, and 1-7.5 probably gives you a decent yet small edge. I wouldn't be surprised if your ROR was close to 40% given your recently damaged bankroll. Anyways, see if you can set up a sim of your play and just double check to make sure your happy with the edge you have created for yourself by counting.

Perhaps you could try playing the ultra-wonging game for now. Back count until the count would normally call for a 2 unit bet, and then jump in. In this sense you get to use a 'phantom unit' that is half of the table min (you should set your standard unit to table min with such a small bankroll). Now your spread effectively doubles and your max bet stays the same. You will have to wong back out after either 2 rounds or after the count drops back down to the point where you would have to place a single unit bet, whichever is the longer. Use whatever act or cover you think is necessary to make this happen. For what its worth, I've back counted excessively at some east coast properties and not had any real problems. One thing is you will find that you don't end up playing a lot of hands, but at least you will know that your playing with a decent edge. In terms of dollar per hour blackjack just doesn't make sense with a small BR anyways, so take your time and try and build it up slowly.

Good luck at the tables!

Edited to add: I just wanted to add some more advice: A 1-10 or 1-12 bet spread is probably a more exceptable target for you once you get your bankroll built up a little.

Thanks for the advice. I downloaded the file named cvdatas551.exe from the qfit website but I haven't played with it much. It's a little overwhelming the first time you open it. My goal is to figure it out this week. Shouldn't be that hard to figure out.

I don't currently back count before I sit down but I normally don't have any trouble finding a fresh shoe where I play. I do Wong out of bad shoes all the time, however. I have set limits for each deck played in the shoe. If the RC isn't there I'm out. It might be a little hard backcounting where I play because it seems like there is always an open table but I'll give it a try until I feel like I'm being watched.

Thanks again for the advice.