The best shoe I ever had and I still "lost" money!

[Wizard2be]

Hi all, I am a long time lurker and have been playing BJ for about 10 years, but more seriously in the last 3 years. I have learned and used the Hi-Lo and Hi-Opt counts and even attempted to use the Zen count, but in the past year have started using the Red 7 count exclusively. I enjoy the ease of its use and have found it overall quite powerful.

I recently experienced an incredible shoe that I may never see again (or at least for quite a while) and am afraid I may have messed up by not increasing my bet during the shoe. I was playing heads-up at one of the nicer strip casinos and things were going fairly average after about 1 hour of play and at the start of my final shoe I was down $900 or 18 units. At the end of my final shoe I was up $2200, making $3100 or 62 units. As this was a 6-deck shoe I started my Red 7 count at -12 and it NEVER increased from that point. The count was usually between -15 and -20. Despite this I was winning almost every hand. I was flat betting my 1 unit or $50. The cards just fell almost perfectly from double-downs to splits to dealer bust. I am not sure how many hands I lost, but I am sure it was no more than 6 or 7. At the end of the shoe I felt completely dumb-founded as perhaps I should have been increasing my bet and made a killing; "shoulda woulda coulda". Even the experienced dealer said it was probably the best shoe she ever saw. The dealer commented that she wished she could have come across the table during the shoe shook me, slapped me across the head and told me to bet more! I had a lot to learn about betting she said. When you "own" a shoe like I did, she said, it didn't matter what the count was, just take advantage of it. I have a lot of respect for this particular dealer and we actually spoke for quite some time after the shoe about various BJ related topics. So, although I was up during this session and relatively happy with the win, I can't help but feel like a bit of a loser in not recognizing the "opportunity".

I suppose the reason I posted this was to hear comments from others about my "missed opportunity". Or was it? Should I have continued to increase my bet into a consistently negative shoe?

Thanks...and I look forward to contributing more on this forum.

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

So, although I was up during this session and relatively happy with the win, I can't help but feel like a bit of a loser in not recognizing the "opportunity".

I suppose the reason I posted this was to hear comments from others about my missed opportunity. Or was it? Should I have continued to increase my bet into a consistently negative shoe?

No no no no NO. Winning and losing streaks are irrelevant. If you can accurately predict the future, that's one thing, but to look at a winning streak and think that you missed an "opportunity" is not looking at things the right way at all. I don't mean to be rude, but the fact that you're asking this question means that you may need to seriously brush up on the fundamental concepts of counting—why counting works, what the count means, etc. Good luck!

 

[HockeXpert]

Hi all, I am a long time lurker and have been playing BJ for about 10 years, but more seriously in the last 3 years. I have learned and used the Hi-Lo and Hi-Opt counts and even attempted to use the Zen count, but in the past year have started using the Red 7 count exclusively. I enjoy the ease of its use and have found it overall quite powerful.

I recently experienced an incredible shoe that I may never see again (or at least for quite a while) and am afraid I may have messed up by not increasing my bet during the shoe. I was playing heads-up at one of the nicer strip casinos and things were going fairly average after about 1 hour of play and at the start of my final shoe I was down $900 or 18 units. At the end of my final shoe I was up $2200, making $3100 or 62 units. As this was a 6-deck shoe I started my Red 7 count at -12 and it NEVER increased from that point. The count was usually between -15 and -20. Despite this I was winning almost every hand. I was flat betting my 1 unit or $50. The cards just fell almost perfectly from double-downs to splits to dealer bust. I am not sure how many hands I lost, but I am sure it was no more than 6 or 7. At the end of the shoe I felt completely dumb-founded as perhaps I should have been increasing my bet and made a killing; "shoulda woulda coulda". Even the experienced dealer said it was probably the best shoe she ever saw. The dealer commented that she wished she could have come across the table during the shoe shook me, slapped me across the head and told me to bet more! I had a lot to learn about betting she said. When you own a shoe like I did, she said, it didn't matter what the count was, just take advantage of it. I have a lot of respect for this particular dealer and we actually spoke for quite some time after the shoe about various BJ related topics. So, although I was up during this session and relatively happy with the win, I can't help but feel like a bit of a loser in not recognizing the "opportunity".

I suppose the reason I posted this was to hear comments from others about my missed opportunity. Or was it? Should I have continued to increase my bet into a consistently negative shoe?

Thanks...and I look forward to contributing more on this forum.

We've all experienced miracle shoes where the count never went +. Cc'ing is not an indicator that you ARE going to win more but rather that you SHOULD win more often or, in the long run, will start to realize a cumulative win IF you do everything correctly, aka don't increase in a - shoe.

This is little solace for an opportunity lost but cc'ing is a marathon, not a sprint and is not for the shy or the timid.

Stick to betting with the count and you'll be thankful in the long run.

 

[Sharky]

you just experienced some 'reverse' negative variance..the dealer had the advantage w/ the negative count, yet she didn't win...just like when we have the advantage w/ a positive count and lose...anyways, it happens, but NO you should not increase your bet in the negative counts - assuming no other AP opportunities - and you did just fine

also, NEVER talk AP w/ any casino employee no matter how friendly/trusting you think they are...playing DUMB (regarding AP) is SMART!

 

[aslan]

Hi all, I am a long time lurker and have been playing BJ for about 10 years, but more seriously in the last 3 years. I have learned and used the Hi-Lo and Hi-Opt counts and even attempted to use the Zen count, but in the past year have started using the Red 7 count exclusively. I enjoy the ease of its use and have found it overall quite powerful.

I recently experienced an incredible shoe that I may never see again (or at least for quite a while) and am afraid I may have messed up by not increasing my bet during the shoe. I was playing heads-up at one of the nicer strip casinos and things were going fairly average after about 1 hour of play and at the start of my final shoe I was down $900 or 18 units. At the end of my final shoe I was up $2200, making $3100 or 62 units. As this was a 6-deck shoe I started my Red 7 count at -12 and it NEVER increased from that point. The count was usually between -15 and -20. Despite this I was winning almost every hand. I was flat betting my 1 unit or $50. The cards just fell almost perfectly from double-downs to splits to dealer bust. I am not sure how many hands I lost, but I am sure it was no more than 6 or 7. At the end of the shoe I felt completely dumb-founded as perhaps I should have been increasing my bet and made a killing; "shoulda woulda coulda". Even the experienced dealer said it was probably the best shoe she ever saw. The dealer commented that she wished she could have come across the table during the shoe shook me, slapped me across the head and told me to bet more! I had a lot to learn about betting she said. When you own a shoe like I did, she said, it didn't matter what the count was, just take advantage of it. I have a lot of respect for this particular dealer and we actually spoke for quite some time after the shoe about various BJ related topics. So, although I was up during this session and relatively happy with the win, I can't help but feel like a bit of a loser in not recognizing the "opportunity".

I suppose the reason I posted this was to hear comments from others about my missed opportunity. Or was it? Should I have continued to increase my bet into a consistently negative shoe?

Thanks...and I look forward to contributing more on this forum.

This was only a good shoe in 20/20 hindsight. So far, no one to my knowledge has figured a way to see such a shoe coming beforehand (barring coolers, and that's illegal). Don't forget, all the billions of sims that have established the EV for your particular card counting system have included just such profitable runs in negative counts (depending on your wonging out guidelines, if any).

 

[Wizard2be]

No no no no NO. Winning and losing streaks are irrelevant. If you can accurately predict the future, that's one thing, but to look at a winning streak and think that you missed an "opportunity" is not looking at things the right way at all. I don't mean to be rude, but the fact that you're asking this question means that you may need to seriously brush up on the fundamental concepts of counting—why counting works, what the count means, etc. Good luck!

You are not rude. My comments about the supposed "lost opportunity" are a bit tongue and cheek because I am well versed in EV and counting and understand that one shoe does not equal the LONG RUN and increasing your bet into a negative count is not warranted. In fact this is exactly what I did by maintaining my 1 unit bet. I was just curious as to what others have experienced or done in a similar type situation wherein no matter what happened during the negative count you won...

 

[Wizard2be]

also, NEVER talk AP w/ any casino employee no matter how friendly/trusting you think they are...playing DUMB (regarding AP) is SMART!

I agree and respect this comment and I have always abided by this with the exception of this one time. The dealer and I were discrete (apart from Big Brother from above) and I understand that she is closely connected to the AP community.

 

[aslan]

You are not rude. My comments about the supposed "lost opportunity" are a bit tongue and cheek because I am well versed in EV and counting and understand that one shoe does not equal the LONG RUN and increasing your bet into a negative count is not warranted. In fact this is exactly what I did by maintaining my 1 unit bet. I was just curious as to what others have experienced or done in a similar type situation wherein no matter what happened during the negative count you won...

Personally, I just ride it out. I never wong out on a winning hand, and have had occasion to ride a negative count below RC -20 before losing a hand. But I only flat bet in such a situation, just as you did.

 

[Blue Efficacy]

The math geeks will tell you did the right thing. I disagree. First it is good for cover. Also, if you're betting big after a nice winning streak has established itself, if you do start losing you're just giving back money you "shouldn't" have won in the first place. It is more likely that when the count goes negative, the little cards will come out. However, other times it will just keep dropping! You have to know when the best time to ride the negative tide is though, and certain AP skills will help you out with that.

And as for best shoes, twice I won every hand in a 4 deck shoe. Or should I say, didn't lose any. One of those times was headsup.

I will absolutely never wong out of a table I am continuing to win at.

 

[bigruss]

I never regret not betting big on shoes like this. In fact, I feel very fortunate that I was able to win most of my minimum bets on such a shoe and just glad it gives me a little more to bet when the numbers get hot.

I played a shoe just like that recently and a guy next to me kept telling me to increase my bet. Of course I didn't cause I knew in the long run it's fool's gold.

A little later on a different shoe, I watched him a lot of his money cause he hit a couple of black jacks with a big bet in and assumed the same thing was happening again, when in actuality his black jacks and other high cards on the table pulled the count down low. The next few hands he's betting big and getting crap cards and the dealer keeps running up fours, five and sixes to good hands. She basically castrated him so much during this time that when the high count came at the end of the shoe he was betting minimum out of fear.

He was not a counter and I came out way ahead of him at the end. Stick to your guns, it's the only way to win in the long run.

 

[bigruss]

The math geeks will tell you did the right thing. I disagree. First it is good for cover. Also, if you're betting big after a nice winning streak has established itself, if you do start losing you're just giving back money you "shouldn't" have won in the first place. It is more likely that when the count goes negative, the little cards will come out. However, other times it will just keep dropping! You have to know when the best time to ride the negative tide is though, and certain AP skills will help you out with that.

And as for best shoes, twice I won every hand in a 4 deck shoe. Or should I say, didn't lose any. One of those times was headsup.

I will absolutely never wong out of a table I am continuing to win at.

If I was afraid of not winning big on "hot shoes" with negative counts, I'd just use some type of simple positive betting progression. This would give great cover and as I understand it, they generally don't perform much worse than flat betting in the long run for a straight Basic Strat. player. The casino I play has about as much heat as Antarctica, so I don't worry about cover very much.

I am interested though in how AP skills can help you ride a negative tide. Read quite a few BJ books and read here often, never heard anything here that sounds like AP play regarding that, more voodoo stuff.

 

[aslan]

I never regret not betting big on shoes like this. In fact, I feel very fortunate that I was able to win most of my minimum bets on such a shoe and just glad it gives me a little more to bet when the numbers get hot.

I played a shoe just like that recently and a guy next to me kept telling me to increase my bet. Of course I didn't cause I knew in the long run it's fool's gold.

A little later on a different shoe, I watched him a lot of his money cause he hit a couple of black jacks with a big bet in and assumed the same thing was happening again, when in actuality his black jacks and other high cards on the table pulled the count down low. The next few hands he's betting big and getting crap cards and the dealer keeps running up fours, five and sixes to good hands. She basically castrated him so much during this time that when the high count came at the end of the shoe he was betting minimum out of fear.

He was not a counter and I came out way ahead of him at the end. Stick to your guns, it's the only way to win in the long run.

You can practice oppositional betting in a negative count, but I hardly ever do it. It smacks too much of those who swear by catching winning streaks. But when I do, it goes something like this. If the count goes down, I double my bet. If it goes down again, I bet three units. If it goes down again I continue to bet three units. If I lose anywhere along the line, I wong out.

 

[bigruss]

You can practice oppositional betting in a negative count, but I hardly ever do it. It smacks too much of those who swear by catching winning streaks. But when I do, it goes something like this. If the count goes down, I double my bet. If it goes down again, I bet three units. If it goes down again I continue to bet three units. If I lose anywhere along the line, I wong out.

If I ever play in the states, I'm sure I will probably need to do a little something to give some cover, but the casino I play at just simply doesn't seem to care about the small tables, which is where I play. Sometimes I just watch the big tables, but haven't seen one AP at any of them that I can recognize. The low end tables are filled with counters who start side betting on other boxes (sometimes the whole table) when the count goes up. The pit boss comes over and watches it until the shoe ends and walks away. Never does a thing about it. I assume they just don't care as long we're not going to the bigger tables. So, I feel trying to do any kind of betting cover just reduces my profit in the long run.

 

[aslan]

If I ever play in the states, I'm sure I will probably need to do a little something to give some cover, but the casino I play at just simply doesn't seem to care about the small tables, which is where I play. Sometimes I just watch the big tables, but haven't seen one AP at any of them that I can recognize. The low end tables are filled with counters who start side betting on other boxes (sometimes the whole table) when the count goes up. The pit boss comes over and watches it until the shoe ends and walks away. Never does a thing about it. I assume they just don't care as long we're not going to the bigger tables. So, I feel trying to do any kind of betting cover just reduces my profit in the long run.

Where there is no heat, there is no need for camo.

 

[Blue Efficacy]

Where there is no heat, there is no need for camo.

The best hunters in nature are never seen until their teeth are in the target's throat.

No visible heat does not mean you for sure have a free pass. Not by any means. Maybe the sky is watching you, maybe critter is watching you on tv on his podium, maybe they don't want you to become skittish, which will make it harder to confirm you're AP.

With all due respect this is very bad advice. Unless it is well established that the store will tolerate you, camo is always necessary to some degree if you play there with any regularity, unless you play for very small stakes. Even then, they might tolerate it for a while. But if you keep winning...

 

[Blue Efficacy]

If I was afraid of not winning big on "hot shoes" with negative counts, I'd just use some type of simple positive betting progression. This would give great cover and as I understand it, they generally don't perform much worse than flat betting in the long run for a straight Basic Strat. player. The casino I play has about as much heat as Antarctica, so I don't worry about cover very much.

I am interested though in how AP skills can help you ride a negative tide. Read quite a few BJ books and read here often, never heard anything here that sounds like AP play regarding that, more voodoo stuff.

Exactly, positive progression won't cost you much. You'll only lose what you've already won. Voodoo, yes a little, life is one long BJ session, blah blah. If you can get branded as a progressionist, too, this can be very beneficial in your relations with the pit.

And as for winning in negative counts, let's say you had a way of knowing that it was going to get MUCH MORE NEGATIVE. In practice that would be like a positive count, no? Think about it.

 

[MangoJ]

Exactly, positive progression won't cost you much. You'll only lose what you've already won. Voodoo, yes a little, life is one long BJ session, blah blah.

@Blue, I hope you realize your ploppy talk. There are no such things as "winning streaks" and "losing streaks" - not to mention "riding them".
If you get dealt a series of blackjacks, there is no winning streak. It is more likely to get crappy hands because many good cards have already been dealt.
Rising your bets on "riding" this streak is simply stupid.

 

[Solo player]

@Blue, I hope you realize your ploppy talk. There are no such things as "winning streaks" and "losing streaks" - not to mention "riding them".

I'm sure Blue is well aware of his ploppy tone. Blue does have 1200 plus posts. I'm thinking he's been around the block a time or two,

Sounds like some good cover plays to me. Something I never thought of.

 

[aslan]

The best hunters in nature are never seen until their teeth are in the target's throat.

No visible heat does not mean you for sure have a free pass. Not by any means. Maybe the sky is watching you, maybe critter is watching you on tv on his podium, maybe they don't want you to become skittish, which will make it harder to confirm you're AP.

With all due respect this is very bad advice. Unless it is well established that the store will tolerate you, camo is always necessary to some degree if you play there with any regularity, unless you play for very small stakes. Even then, they might tolerate it for a while. But if you keep winning...

Examine my words carefully.

 

[aslan]

If lack of camo creates heat, then there is need for camo. Let's not get into semantics. Which came first, the chicken or the egg? If in the first instance you don't practice camo, there is heat, then there is heat, and you need camo. The heat is measurable by the amount of camo needed to overcome it. If the sweaty eye is watching carefully and the pit is watching with peaked interest, but my camo is terrific and they cannot see what I am doing, can you say there is no heat? Where there is no heat, there is no need for camo.