The Halves Count Challenge

#1
Griffin, Sch., Wong, Qfit all recognize halves as perhaps the best count across many games that does not need a side count.

Qfit Modern blackjack chap 8
BJA Sch. refers to halves as the Cadillac of counts.
Sch. makes an argument that in a team setting a higher level player should be compensated more.
Wong "halves makes almost no error in estimating advantage"
.99 betting correlation.

The modern game focuses on betting with mostly shoe play and some form of Wonging, this plays to halves strength. Halves is also a dominant DD count.

Anything that one can do with hi lo can be done with halves: ST, watch multiple tables, talk, watch the pit , errors etc.

Halves outperforms hi lo while considering the same cards as hi lo, just in a different way, no side counts.

The law of large numbers means a 5% to 10% improvement in N0 is large. It's equivalent to hours less in a casino and/or fewer trips for the same result vs lower level counts. For camo, if your not there they can't bar you. If a 3 SD N0 is 200,000 hands to decrease that by 10,000 to 20,000 hands with a superior count equals many hours of play.

On errors:
If you can pass a skills test you are competent. If one passes an algebra test and another calculus is the calculus test invalid because its harder? Of course not, yet passing a skills test with a higher level count is somehow not valid. One could claim the only valid count is A5 because the others are to hard no matter your skills test success.

Count schizophrenia:
So many counts and info I think has led to confusion. Many ask what's the best count when they are already using a good one.

Indices:
Sch. Catch 22, fab 4 is the general standard. To not use any indices may drop return 25% where adding more indicies will add little.

Should one comment on a count being to hard to use if they have never tried it?

The challemge:
Find a basic bj game from cbjn where halves does not outperform every count that does not use a side count using ill 18 or catch 22 & fab 4, risk averse. Optimized bet ramp or spread for each count, the ramps will be different. Look at modern bj chap. 8

On side counts:
Near twice the effort for 5% to 10% more return. Also, cripples you when ST or watching multiple tables, one would have to drop side counts or other adjustments. In the modern game with mostly shoe play these side counts are blunted by multi deck games. We know through sims that being off 1 or 2 TC's for indices cost us little, so side counts are therefore not correcting any great error in playing. An example 10 vs 10 for doubling has a hi lo EV indice of 4? And RA of 6?, so anything in that range is fine. So what is the big gain an A side count is suppose to give?

What to do regarding counts?:
Stick with your current count, lower level counts are fine
Indices, at least catch 22, fab 4 Risk Averse
If want to go up a level; don't lose casino time, pick a similar count
Side counts are a lot of effort for little return
The above is subjective :)
 
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QFIT

Well-Known Member
#2
blackjack avenger said:
Griffin, Sch., Wong, Qfit all recognize halves as perhaps the best count across many games that does not need a side count.
Depends on the definition of "best." Personally, I don't like the count. Far too difficult for the gain.
 

psyduck

Well-Known Member
#3
blackjack avenger said:
The challemge:
Find a basic bj game from cbjn where halves does not outperform every count that does not use a side count
6deck, DOA, H17, LS, split to four, DAS, optimal 1 to 8 spread, base = $25, same number of indices (49):

Code:
count            level      winrate/h      SCORE       N0
Wong half        3          $21.48         17.66       56622
Mentor           2          $22.42         18.76       53309
 
#4
objective and subjective

QFIT said:
Depends on the definition of "best." Personally, I don't like the count. Far too difficult for the gain.
Your study shows the strength of halves.
Best in this case is objective return which you quantified.
Have you used halves?

I think to state halves is harder then hi lo is reasonable, to say unusable is a stretch, subjective of course ;)
 
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#5
outside the boundaries

psyduck said:
6deck, DOA, H17, LS, split to four, DAS, optimal 1 to 8 spread, base = $25, same number of indices (49):

Code:
count            level      winrate/h      SCORE       N0
Wong half        3          $21.48         17.66       56622
Mentor           2          $22.42         18.76       53309
To many indices, also I tried to be more specific on bet ramps. Optimized or optimized defined spread for each count. The bet ramps will be different. Also, you did not define cut.
 

psyduck

Well-Known Member
#6
blackjack avenger said:
To many indices, also I tried to be more specific on bet ramps. Optimized or optimized defined spread for each count. The bet ramps will be different. Also, you did not define cut.
80% cut. The rest I do not know exactly what you meant.

I used 1 to 8 optimal spread so that each system had about the same hourly wager which is important when comparing systems.

All I can say is for the game I play, Mentor is the best without sidecount.
 
#7
for the challenge

psyduck said:
80% cut. The rest I do not know exactly what you meant.

I used 1 to 8 optimal spread so that each system had about the same hourly wager which is important when comparing systems.

All I can say is for the game I play, Mentor is the best without sidecount.
Risk averse catch 22, fab 4 indices,
Optimized 1 to 8 is fine.
Each count should have different bets, right?

If you use personally more indicies that is fine.

Assuming the bet ramps are correct, can you post?
Probably the extra indices is what pushes mentor ahead. Probably with the catch 22 fab 4 RA halves is ahead.
 
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QFIT

Well-Known Member
#8
blackjack avenger said:
Your study shows the strength of halves.
Best in this case is objective return which you quantified.
Have you used halves?

I think to state halves is harder then hi lo is reasonable, to say unusable is a stretch, subjective of course ;)
I ignored error-rate in that study. No, I haven't used it. I have no problem with a level-2 count. Level-3 is far more work to count by pairs.
 

psyduck

Well-Known Member
#9
blackjack avenger said:
Risk averse catch 22, fab 4 indices,
Optimized 1 to 8 is fine.
Each count should have different bets, right?

If you use personally more indicies that is fine.

Assuming the bet ramps are correct, can you post?
Probably the extra indices is what pushes mentor ahead. Probably with the catch 22 fab 4 RA halves is ahead.
Here is the optimal 1-8 spread based on initial hand advantage:
Code:
TC            Wong half         Mentor
<=1            1                  1
2              2                  1
3              4                  2
4              5                  2
5              6                  3
6              8                  4
7                                 5
8                                 5
9                                 6
10                                7
11                                7
>=12                              8
 
#10
See if you can find a count; without side count, that outperforms halves using SCORE and N0.

Indicies RA or EV:
Sweet 16
Or
Illustrious 18
Or
Catch 22
And
Fab 4 if surrender

A game in cbjn, must give city.
No 6-5 bj as this is not bj

Bets:
Open ended optimal
Or
Defined optimized ramp, ex. 1 to 10
The bets will be different.

Enter & exit points:
3 or more decks anything from TC -3 and up.
DD or SD play all.

Must post sim.

Calculating TC must be consistent if applicable.

I expect a count in a rare game may win, but not common games.

Did I miss anything? If so I will edit this post.

I would suggest looking at online Qfits "modern blackjack" chapter 8 on strategy
comparisons. Especially notice the better the cut the more halves outperforms, even hand held games.
 
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psyduck

Well-Known Member
#11
No need to be that complicated

The only requirement to make Wong halves a sure winner is no index plays, because its only strength is higher BC compared to other level 2 systems without sidecount.
 
#12
opinion?

QFIT said:
I ignored error-rate in that study. No, I haven't used it. I have no problem with a level-2 count. Level-3 is far more work to count by pairs.
The error rate is in the tags of lower level counts compared to EOR. A built in error rate.

Halves gets easier when cancelling by pairs. Trust me .:)

Halves 22 positive tags per deck, .99 BC
Hi lo 20 positive tags per deck, lower BC

Betting isnt everything but its very important.

On counting errors, either one tests out or doesn't.
Is an A not valid on a hard math test?
 
#13
not common

Most probably use indices
Most would probably suggest indices
The limited indices for the challenge are considered standard?
So a fair comparison would probably include some indices.

Full indice comparison would probably hurt halves, as you suggest.

A lot of discussion on PE when in the modern game BC is far more important, where halves dominates.
 
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#14
I use HIOPT II with an ace side count. My tests on myself for speed and accuracy show:

I count more accurately using the ace side count but I count 20% faster without the side count. I do make more mistakes WITHOUT the side count.

This probably is not the case with most people but I have been side counting aces for decades. It has become second nature. My speed rarely slows up the game because I am bankroll challenged so I rarely get to play heads up. So for my situation the loss in speed is meaningless. The increase in accuracy and profit from the added focus I employ when the side count is added is very meaningful.
 
#17
Some relevant sim results.

I have sim results that were sent to me. They compare most popular counts for both wonging and play all.

For play all the conditions are 6 deck, 75% penetration, S17, DAS, DOA, no RSA, no LS using a 1 to 16 optimal spread for each count.

AO2 and Halves are so close they are listed for the same SCORE and N0. The only count to outperform in these categories is HIOPT II with ace side count which BA didn't want to be used in the comparison (no side count).

For the wonging sim results you only play at the approximate equivalent of HILO TC +1 or higher for each count, spreading 1 to 8 optimal for each count. This results in playing about 27% of the hands. The wonging affect was achieved by setting the bet size to 0 for hands below the threshold and running a play all sim. The rest is the same as the above sim.

The wonging sim result is the same for order of finish. AO2 and Halves are tied listed at the top of level 2 systems without side counts. No distinction is made between the 2 for N0 or SCORE. HIOPT II with ace side count again beats every system listed in both categories.

An unexpected result was AO2 performed worse when side counting aces. I am not sure if this indicates a problem with the sim or if this small decrease in SCORE and increase in N0 indicates you are better off not side counting aces with AO2.
 
#18
indicies?

tthree said:
I have sim results that were sent to me. They compare most popular counts for both wonging and play all.

For play all the conditions are 6 deck, 75% penetration, S17, DAS, DOA, no RSA, no LS using a 1 to 16 optimal spread for each count.

AO2 and Halves are so close they are listed for the same SCORE and N0. The only count to outperform in these categories is HIOPT II with ace side count which BA didn't want to be used in the comparison (no side count).

For the wonging sim results you only play at the approximate equivalent of HILO TC +1 or higher for each count, spreading 1 to 8 optimal for each count. This results in playing about 27% of the hands. The wonging affect was achieved by setting the bet size to 0 for hands below the threshold and running a play all sim. The rest is the same as the above sim.

The wonging sim result is the same for order of finish. AO2 and Halves are tied listed at the top of level 2 systems without side counts. No distinction is made between the 2 for N0 or SCORE. HIOPT II with ace side count again beats every system listed in both categories.

An unexpected result was AO2 performed worse when side counting aces. I am not sure if this indicates a problem with the sim or if this small decrease in SCORE and increase in N0 indicates you are better off not side counting aces with AO2.
I agree hi op II with A side count beats halves; it better, nearly twice the work for 5% to 10% more.

With Ao2 & halves what indices were used? I guess all?, which is why Ao2 closed the gap.
 

johnnyb

Well-Known Member
#19
tthree said:
I have sim results that were sent to me. They compare most popular counts for both wonging and play all.

For play all the conditions are 6 deck, 75% penetration, S17, DAS, DOA, no RSA, no LS using a 1 to 16 optimal spread for each count.

AO2 and Halves are so close they are listed for the same SCORE and N0. The only count to outperform in these categories is HIOPT II with ace side count which BA didn't want to be used in the comparison (no side count).

For the wonging sim results you only play at the approximate equivalent of HILO TC +1 or higher for each count, spreading 1 to 8 optimal for each count. This results in playing about 27% of the hands. The wonging affect was achieved by setting the bet size to 0 for hands below the threshold and running a play all sim. The rest is the same as the above sim.

The wonging sim result is the same for order of finish. AO2 and Halves are tied listed at the top of level 2 systems without side counts. No distinction is made between the 2 for N0 or SCORE. HIOPT II with ace side count again beats every system listed in both categories.

An unexpected result was AO2 performed worse when side counting aces. I am not sure if this indicates a problem with the sim or if this small decrease in SCORE and increase in N0 indicates you are better off not side counting aces with AO2.
Assuming these simulations are accurate, why is Hi-Opt II suddenly outperforming AO2 and Halves? The ace side-count must raise the advantage insignificantly on a 6D game, so where are these changes coming from? And I thought Hi-Opt II was mainly a pitch game count. :confused:

I trust the accuracy of Qfit's data, but I also respect other simulations made as well due to both sims being ran by AP's. I'm really trying to step it up from TKO to a level 2 count and I was going to take FLASH's advice and work with Zen for a gain in advantage but I see contradiction through different oppinions and these simulations, so I'm really not sure which path I should take.

Can someone please explain?? Thanks.
 
#20
AO2 without Aces would perform no better than HO2 without Aces.
Neither would be competitive with Halves, without Aces. Both are obsolete relics. zg
 
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