The logic of doubling 10 vs 10

[Sir Counts-A-Lot]

Hello. This is probably a dumb question but I am having trouble getting my puny brain to grasp the concept of doubling a 10 vs the dealers 10 even when the count is sky high. I have no doubt that it is the right thing to do mathematically I just can't understand the logic behind it. Most other indices seem to make perfect sense to me but this one seems like a stalemate. Isn't a deck rich with 10's going to give the dealer a 20 just as often as give you a twenty resulting in a push? And following the same logic isn't he exactly as likely to pull an ace or any other card from the deck as you? It seems putting more money on the table when the count is very high would be the same as having the original bet to me. How does this correlate to any advantage for the player?

 

[bj bob]

Hello. This is probably a dumb question but I am having trouble getting my puny brain to grasp the concept of doubling a 10 vs the dealers 10 even when the count is sky high. I have no doubt that it is the right thing to do mathematically I just can't understand the logic behind it. Most other indices seem to make perfect sense to me but this one seems like a stalemate. Isn't a deck rich with 10's going to give the dealer a 20 just as often as give you a twenty resulting in a push? And following the same logic isn't he exactly as likely to pull an ace or any other card from the deck as you? It seems putting more money on the table when the count is very high would be the same as having the original bet to me. How does this correlate to any advantage for the player?

The way I see it is that you have already got the locked 10 .That's a given fact. The other given fact is that you know that the dealer, in fact, does not have an ace underneath. At that point of the deck, given the high +TC, you stand a better chance to achieve a 20, 21 while the dealer's hand is still up in the air.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Double the Fun.

If the dealer has an A under you just lose your original bet and not the double bet, at least in USA casinos.

If you and the dealer have 20 that is a push; however, if the dealer has 17, 18, 19 or breaks then you win twice as much.:joker::whip:

One does not win as often doubling but you win twice as much when you do win.

 

[hawkeye]

Most places check to see if the dealer has the ace or not. If they don't check where you play, then I'm not sure.

But if they do check and he doesn't have the natural, then you know a 20 will push. Why double? For the chance that you'll beat him, pushing a double down bet is the same as pushing a regular bet. If the count is high enough, it's worth it to take the chance.

 

[callipygian]

At high counts you get to stand on 15's and 16's, but the dealer has to hit them.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

All the reasons given are good ones. If both you and the dealer end up with stiffs he still has to hit his, and now there are a bunch of 10's to help you out.

Also, most people are counting aces too and we know the dealer doesn't have one of those (in US rules at least.) Would that I could only pull an ace on a doubled 10 like i can on a doubled 11!

 

[cardcounter0]

Because it is highly likely you are going to pull a ten for 20.
If the dealer has a face underneath, it doesn't matter what you did, it's a push.

If he doesn't have a face and has 7,8,9 you win twice as much.

If he doesn't have a T,9,8,7 he has to hit and likely will get a ten and bust.
Again, you win twice as much.

Even if you don't get the ten for 20, dealer likelyhood of busting is increased, and you win twice as much.

Sometimes, you don't push or win, and you lose twice as much. In high counts of +4 or more, you win more times than you lose, therefore the double.

 

[shadroch]

I'm not sure I would say highly likely to. The chances of you pulling a ten are about 67% against you.

 

[cardcounter0]

I was talking about a count of +4 or more, and don't forget about the aces.
(one of which is NOT under the dealer's up card, and two of your cards aren't ten or ace).

 

[Renzey]

Hello. This is probably a dumb question but I am having trouble getting my puny brain to grasp the concept of doubling a 10 vs the dealers 10 even when the count is sky high. I have no doubt that it is the right thing to do mathematically I just can't understand the logic behind it. Most other indices seem to make perfect sense to me but this one seems like a stalemate. Isn't a deck rich with 10's going to give the dealer a 20 just as often as give you a twenty resulting in a push? And following the same logic isn't he exactly as likely to pull an ace or any other card from the deck as you? It seems putting more money on the table when the count is very high would be the same as having the original bet to me. How does this correlate to any advantage for the player?

The one glaring difference is that at high counts you can catch an Ace -- but the dealer can't have one (in standard peek games).

 

[EasyRhino]

Also, if you get a stiff like a 15 or 16, you wouldn't have to hit (which you wouldn't do in such a high count), while the dealer would.

Note that many people, smart people, recommend "risk averse" indexes for plays like this, because doubling what's probably a max bet already is damn risky, and the variance can contribute more in risk of ruin than you make up in EV.

A risk averse 10v10 index would be skyer-higher than even the regular index.

... but it's damn fun when it works!

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Also, if you get a stiff like a 15 or 16, you wouldn't have to hit (which you wouldn't do in such a high count), while the dealer would.

That reason kind of goes out the window anyway with doubling, because you're not going to be able to hit any stiff.

Note that many people, smart people, recommend "risk averse" indexes for plays like this, because doubling what's probably a max bet already is damn risky, and the variance can contribute more in risk of ruin than you make up in EV.

A risk averse 10v10 index would be skyer-higher than even the regular index.

... but it's damn fun when it works!

Yes, that play is by far the riskiest index play. I double it at the same index where you'd stand on 15 vs. 10. As well as split 10's and double 9 vs. 7.

 

[EasyRhino]

That reason kind of goes out the window anyway with doubling, because you're not going to be able to hit any stiff.

That's my point. You'd only want to take another card with 10v10 if you get a 2,3, or 4. Everything else is a "stand" anyway.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

That's my point. You'd only want to take another card with 10v10 if you get a 2,3, or 4. Everything else is a "stand" anyway.

Ah OK that's right, the relative value of doubling goes up because the likelihood that you will want another card goes down. I suppose the value of taking another card goes down too because you are more likely to bust a 12-14.

I like the DD 10 vs. A play even more. It looks scarier to a ploppy but in reality it's slightly less risky.