Canceler said:
StandardDeviant –
One thing I guarantee you’ll find annoying is the difficulty of separating the luck component from the skill component.
With blackjack it’s easy; you make the correct BS or index play, and lose. Bad luck.
With poker you bet your nice hand, and your opponent happens to make his flush on the river, beating you. Bad luck? Maybe, or was there something you could have done earlier to induce him to fold before making his flush? A few of your losses will be clearly due to bad luck. But for most of them you will have these niggling doubts: Could I have gotten him to fold? Should I have folded earlier? Should I have recognized that my hand was second-best?
this is SO true. it's very easy to second-guess yourself and doubt your abilities at poker. if you don't show an immediate positive return, lots of people get frustrated and assume they suck or something.
truth is, variance in poker can be almost (or just as) brutal as in blackjack.
fun fact: it takes a lottttt longer for your expectation to regress to the mean in poker because you're getting something like 25 hands per hour (assuming live play), and you're folding around 85% of those hands.
this may be a horrible analogy, but imagine you were playing blackjack and you were, for some reason, wonging to the point that you only play when you'd have a max bet out. that opportunity comes along once every few shoes or so (not entirely sure, but that's close, right?). as soon as the TC drops below +5, you wong out. let's assume you average out to one max bet per shoe. how long would it take, in this obviously contrived example, for your expectation to regress to the mathematical mean?
my apologies for what is probably an absurd example, i'm still learning this whole wacky "blackjack" thing, where 74o is actually a hand worth playing.