The shoe from hell - ten units up

[aslan]

I had occasion to play a $10 game before breakfast this week. The count went south and stayed south for the entire shoe. I was supposed to wong out after the first several hands. I was playing head up with the dealer. Because I was the only player and was the first player that morning, having watched the lengthy washing and shuffling of the cards for the first time, I felt uncomfortable wonging out so early on. So I hung in there figuring it was only a $10 game. It was a very funny shoe. My hands were lousy and yet I was winning far more hands than the dealer. She was busting or coming up second best, plus I got all the blackjacks but one. I played one 8-deck shoe and won 10 1/2 units. The count never got even close to positive the entire shoe. I was one happy cat. :cat:

 

[tthree]

negative count streaks

From my positive progression betting days long ago any extremely long win streak almost always came in a very negative count (also long losing streaks). Very positive situations tended to be choppy with many more wins than losses but not the most extreme winning streaks. Hard to say how much the actual correlation is but that was my experience. MY longest if I remember right was 19 hands in a row negating pushes.

 

[Most Interesting Man]

Did the count continue dropping as you were winning?

 

[steamboat1983]

tthree, I've noticed the same thing. I'm early in my card counting 'career', but in one shoe with a negative count most of the time, was up majorly. Second shoe, with a positive count, actually lost most of it. It was probably my first lesson in good and bad variance.

 

[bj21abc]

Not that surprising - count going down means high cards coming out the shoe - player advantage...

In contrast think back to the shoes from hell where you have max bets out, count keeps climbing and you keep losing. Same argument, in reverse.

tthree, I've noticed the same thing. I'm early in my card counting 'career', but in one shoe with a negative count most of the time, was up majorly. Second shoe, with a positive count, actually lost most of it. It was probably my first lesson in good and bad variance.

 

[tthree]

Did the count continue dropping as you were winning?

If you were asking me it happened so many times I cannt remember the 19 run specifically. I will say I was using HIOPT I at the time which had me hitting lots of stiffs against dealer stiffs in those situations. BS would have gotten killed but I turned the garbage into wins. I might be hitting 15 v 2 or 14 v 6 on these extreme counts. The ploppies thought I was the luckiest lunatic out there.

 

[aslan]

Did the count continue dropping as you were winning?

No. I was using KO, an unbalanced counting system that begins at -28 for an 8-deck game. The count first dove down to the negative 30's, lingered there for a while, move back to the negative 20's, stayed there most of the shoe, rose to the low negative teens, but never got beyond -12 RC. For those who don't know KO, -6 RC is the key count (1/2% advantage), and +4 RC is the pivot point (2% advantage). The recommended exit points (wong out points) for KO are -32 for one deck dealt, -27 for two decks dealt, -22 for three decks dealt, and - 17 for four decks dealt.

 

[aslan]

If you were asking me it happened so many times I cannt remember the 19 run specifically. I will say I was using HIOPT I at the time which had me hitting lots of stiffs against dealer stiffs in those situations. BS would have gotten killed but I turned the garbage into wins. I might be hitting 15 v 2 or 14 v 6 on these extreme counts. The ploppies thought I was the luckiest lunatic out there.

Yes, I may have hit a couple of stiffs that were not called for by BS, but not knowing the actual indexes I was eyeballing it. I was hitting 12's against dealer 2's and 3's and 16's against dealer tens with absolute confidence, but that is only BS anyway.

 

[tthree]

UP was down bad was good

Its kind of funny looking back on it . My opinion on the most important indices was totally backwards with the positive progression. I eventually saw my biggest bets were on the negative extreme counts. These indices most counters would see as the least important, I felt were most important. The most frequently used indices and those which affect your highest bets are most important. I realized the extremely negative indices were the ones that affected my highest bets. Everything was totally backwards to the way I memorize now. I might not even think those indices are worth memorizing any more.

 

[zengrifter]

I had occasion to play a $10 game before breakfast this week. The count went south and stayed south for the entire shoe. I was supposed to wong out after the first several hands. I was playing head up with the dealer. Because I was the only player and was the first player that morning, having watched the lengthy washing and shuffling of the cards for the first time, I felt uncomfortable wonging out so early on.

No need to feel uncomfortable if the decision to exit is out of your hands.
Just answer the imaginary cell-call and the casino will direct you to exit. zg

 

[aslan]

No need to feel uncomfortable if the decision to exit is out of your hands.
Just answer the imaginary cell-call and the casino will direct you to exit. zg

True. With them directing you to step back from the table, I mean, what can you do but comply? Good call, zg.

 

[bj bob]

I had occasion to play a $10 game before breakfast this week. The count went south and stayed south for the entire shoe. I was supposed to wong out after the first several hands. I was playing head up with the dealer. Because I was the only player and was the first player that morning, having watched the lengthy washing and shuffling of the cards for the first time, I felt uncomfortable wonging out so early on. So I hung in there figuring it was only a $10 game. It was a very funny shoe. My hands were lousy and yet I was winning far more hands than the dealer. She was busting or coming up second best, plus I got all the blackjacks but one. I played one 8-deck shoe and won 10 1/2 units. The count never got even close to positive the entire shoe. I was one happy cat. :cat:

One happy cat, huh? You are not even supposed to get near a casino, let alone a BJ table. What happened to self-discipline and self-control, not to mention sacred Lenten vows. It's been barely two weeks and you're returning to good old fashioned heathenism. I know some goodly old man who is just dying to hear all about it, Sats 1:00-4:00 p.m.:whip:

 

[aslan]

One happy cat, huh? You are not even supposed to get near a casino, let alone a BJ table. What happened to self-discipline and self-control, not to mention sacred Lenten vows. It's been barely two weeks and you're returning to good old fashioned heathenism. I know some goodly old man who is just dying to hear all about it, Sats 1:00-4:00 p.m.:whip:

I beat the Devil:devil: at his own game! What's to confess!!! :laugh::laugh::laugh:

 

[21gunsalute]

I had occasion to play a $10 game before breakfast this week. The count went south and stayed south for the entire shoe. I was supposed to wong out after the first several hands. I was playing head up with the dealer. Because I was the only player and was the first player that morning, having watched the lengthy washing and shuffling of the cards for the first time, I felt uncomfortable wonging out so early on. So I hung in there figuring it was only a $10 game. It was a very funny shoe. My hands were lousy and yet I was winning far more hands than the dealer. She was busting or coming up second best, plus I got all the blackjacks but one. I played one 8-deck shoe and won 10 1/2 units. The count never got even close to positive the entire shoe. I was one happy cat. :cat:

I had that happen the other day. I was betting up to 20 units for a couple of shoes straight and doing very well. Then the next 2 shoes went way into negative territory and stayed there for the entire shoe, and I won almost every hand both shoes. I felt silly making mostly 1 unit bets while I was doing so well. The dealer didn't say anything, but he had a rather bewildered look on his face. I probably did too.