This Stuff Works

[DonR]

As you know from my previous posts, I've only started counting very recently, and I think I can say that it made a significant difference in my game. Playing only BS for years, I was losing, not much, but losing nevertheless. Since I started counting, combined with wonging and BS adjustments, I started winning.

My last 10 trips to casinos ended in 8 winning sessions, 1 losing and 1 even. The total is 110 bet units won. Not a lot, but a very nice change. I have never, ever been on such a streak in the past. Some may say it's good luck only, but I think it's gotta be more than that.

Not having the stomach (not yet anyway) for the proper (wide) spreads and all the roller coaster rides that come along with them, I am only spreading 1-4, sometimes even lower, maybe 1-3. I am however trying to compensate for this, by wonging out, usually around -1, or -1.5. Also, I set my stop wins to anything between 10 and 15 bets. If I reach this, I leave. So far, I had quite a few pretty short sessions, reaching this goal in anything between 20 minutes (that was an extreme one) and 2 hours. If on the other hand I go down initially, then I spend more time fighting my way back, trying to get back as much money as I can. Once I was 35 units down (lost all the high count / high bets hands), and it took me another 5 hours to get back to -5 units, and then I left.

Anyway, definitely not your typical AP type of play, but so far I'm pretty happy with these results. I'd say much better than BS only.

Thank you again for all the useful info. This is a great forum!

 

[Sonny]

I'd say much better than BS only.

No doubt. Thanks for sharing your progress.

-Sonny-

 

[standard toaster]

i would not suggest putting a win stop to your game.. maybe a lose stop but you have an advantage why not play and keep it going? the more you play the more you make the lquicker you reach the long run

 

[DonR]

i would not suggest putting a win stop to your game.. maybe a lose stop but you have an advantage why not play and keep it going? the more you play the more you make the lquicker you reach the long run

I don't know...based on the way I play (very modest spreads), I most likely shouldn't expect anything more than maybe 1 unit per hour, or so. Don't have a simulator, so I don't know what the exact expectations might be. So, I'm thinking if I'm up 10, 12, or 15 units in about 2 hours of play, is it a good idea to carry on, potentially making it an 8 or 10 hours session, getting tired along the way, and maybe not even making any more money in the total.

I'm thinking of making sessions as short as I can, provided I'm up and if I reach my goal for the day. On bad days however, I'll have to dig in and try to fight back, using the advantage that I hope I still have with rather modest spreads, but combined with wonging.

And I think you are right about stop losses. I should probably set some limits there.

One thing is certain: this is way more fun than before, with BS only. Probably because I had a pretty good streak. Now for bad days, as Sagefr0g said, I'll try to dance around, bob and weave, and keep the hands up, trying to avoid the counter punch that could annihilate most winnings in just a few hours. The way I see it, wonging should be a powerful weapon in my hands.

 

[callipygian]

I am only spreading 1-4, sometimes even lower, maybe 1-3. I am however trying to compensate for this, by wonging out, usually around -1, or -1.5.

I personally advocate the mentality that you should spread higher because you have to, not because you should. I'd rephrase this as, "I wong out at -1 or -1.5, so I only need to spread 1-4 to play the game."

You can break even in most shoe games simply by Wonging in at +1 and Wonging out at -1. Anything you spread adds to your win, but you've already "beaten" the game simply with Wonging. Spreading your bet increases your EV but also increases your variance. Wonging increases your EV without increasing your variance. Wonging will drop your win rate because you will play fewer hands per hour (EV x hands/hr = win rate), but if you are in a "target rich environment" (cue Top Gun theme), this effect is minimal.

Not that I'm an expert or anything, but it seems to me if you're in a place where you can Wong effectively (e.g. Las Vegas Strip), your best bet is to Wong more aggressively and spread less aggressively. Only when you're tied to one casino or one pit (e.g. Indian gaming or riverboat) should you Wong less and spread more.

 

[DonR]

You can break even in most shoe games simply by Wonging in at +1 and Wonging out at -1. Anything you spread adds to your win, but you've already "beaten" the game simply with Wonging.

I wasn't really aware of this. It sounds very promising. However, I can't really do it as much as I'd love to, simply because of the fact that I am not in a "target rich environment", so I can't be too aggressive.

Not that I'm an expert or anything, but it seems to me if you're in a place where you can Wong effectively (e.g. Las Vegas Strip), your best bet is to Wong more aggressively and spread less aggressively. Only when you're tied to one casino or one pit (e.g. Indian gaming or riverboat) should you Wong less and spread more.

Wouldn't spreading more aggressively also draw more attention, when you are tied to one or two casinos. My reasoning is if they are familiar with your face, it won't be too difficult to figure out what you are doing, once you start spreading more aggressively. I'm under the impression that it actually might be less obvious to go with more Wonging and less spreading, under these circumstances. Of course, I may be wrong. I think that with either method, if you are too aggressive, it won't take them very long to figure it out.

Thanks for your input, callipygian. I never realized before how important Wonging is. And speaking about it, I finally ordered Stanford Wong's book a couple of days ago.

 

[ihate17]

Wouldn't spreading more aggressively also draw more attention, when you are tied to one or two casinos. My reasoning is if they are familiar with your face, it won't be too difficult to figure out what you are doing, once you start spreading more aggressively. I'm under the impression that it actually might be less obvious to go with more Wonging and less spreading, under these circumstances. Of course, I may be wrong. I think that with either method, if you are too aggressive, it won't take them very long to figure it out.

My thoughts
Every casino is different but something you might consider when going to a bigger spread in a casino that knows you well.

The good part:
They have known you for years as a BS player and loser. Most pits are lazy and if they have already an elvaluation of you in their minds they may stick with it for a long period of time. Most eyes are understaffed and do not evaluate players unless alerted by the pit.

The bad part:
If they do re-evaluate you and decide that you are now a threat, since they have known you for a period of time they are no very likely to forget you.

Or you could play less, wonging in at +2 with a small spread and playing every hand at an advantage. Of course, they might figure that out also, especially if these places are not large.

You decide.
ihate17

 

[sagefr0g]

i would not suggest putting a win stop to your game.. maybe a lose stop but you have an advantage why not play and keep it going? the more you play the more you make the lquicker you reach the long run

your right about the win stop lol.
i think my play environment is similar to DonR's. tough games and all, 8decks, poor pen, crowded and local main joint to play. thing about the stop win in that sort of conditions, get a little lucky maybe you best your expectation for a game that's got better conditions. you can't really wong the joint affectively. but hey if you up and leave the table your effectively wonging long as you don't leave a positive shoe. and say you do that, maybe wong a shoe or two after that.
but on the stop loss, i hardly know what to say. i'm trying to figure an angle on that but comming up blank. :joker::whip: just what i do as far as that goes is i hardly ever carry much of a trip bankroll on any one trip, so lose it well, no big deal nothing life changing.

Originally Posted by DonR
One thing is certain: this is way more fun than before, with BS only. Probably because I had a pretty good streak. Now for bad days, as Sagefr0g said, I'll try to dance around, bob and weave, and keep the hands up, trying to avoid the counter punch that could annihilate most winnings in just a few hours.

lol, that's it champ. don't forget i'm in your corner (hiding lmao).
wish i knew what to do about those bad days, that's part the problem with the stop loss stuff is it might undercut those good days that help offset the bad days. but if your up and you know the shoe isn't advantageous it won't hurt you to leave the shoe, that's for sure.
but anyway eventually you'll find that it would be really, really helpful to you if you can figure out just what to expect for the way you play. that's where a simulator such as cvcx and a spread sheet like Kasi's would really be helpful.

 

[EasyRhino]

Don, I think a large portion of your results (many wins) is due to the win stop. After all if you bet 4x on one hand, and split and double each... that's already a 16 unit swing. And the losses you have have a potential to be a doozy.

If you add some wonging in to the wonging out, then I think you've still probably got a modestly winning game.

 

[takinfromindians97]

This game is a roller coaster ride. The other day i was playing at one of my favorite casinos. I could not lose a hand at all as long as i was playing $25 or under and it was a negative or nuetral count. As soon as the count would get good at all and i would raise my bets in any way, BOOM dealer would pull 21 or 20 or any nice combination that would smash my hand. Towards the end of the night i finally got some winning hands with big bets out but still only came out a little above even. Just another fun night with the indians.

 

[DonR]

Thanks for all your replies, guys.

but anyway eventually you'll find that it would be really, really helpful to you if you can figure out just what to expect for the way you play. that's where a simulator such as cvcx and a spread sheet like Kasi's would really be helpful.

Since I don't have any simulators, would it be too much to ask if someone could run a simulation for me, when time allows?

My game is 8D, 0.75 pen, dealer stands on soft 17, doubles after splits allowed, up to 4 splits, no surrender

Let's assume I wong out at -1.5 (no wonging in). My bet spread is as follows:

between -1.5 and +2 - 1 unit
+2 - 2 units
+3 - 3 units
+4 and greater - 4 units

Perfect BS, with I18 adjustments. What should I expect in the long run?

Thanks

 

[sagefr0g]

Thanks for all your replies, guys.



Since I don't have any simulators, would it be too much to ask if someone could run a simulation for me, when time allows?

My game is 8D, 0.75 pen, dealer stands on soft 17, doubles after splits allowed, up to 4 splits, no surrender

Let's assume I wong out at -1.5 (no wonging in). My bet spread is as follows:

between -1.5 and +2 - 1 unit
+2 - 2 units
+3 - 3 units
+4 and greater - 4 units

Perfect BS, with I18 adjustments. What should I expect in the long run?

Thanks

about three cents per hour give or take a few cents maybe. :1st:

 

[zengrifter]

Not having the stomach (not yet anyway) for the proper (wide) spreads and all the roller coaster rides that come along with them, I am only spreading 1-4, sometimes even lower, maybe 1-3. I am however trying to compensate for this, by wonging out, usually around -1, or -1.5. Also, I set my stop wins to anything between 10 and 15 bets. If I reach this, I leave. So far, I had quite a few pretty short sessions, reaching this goal in anything between 20 minutes (that was an extreme one) and 2 hours. If on the other hand I go down initially, then I spend more time fighting my way back, trying to get back as much money as I can. Once I was 35 units down (lost all the high count / high bets hands), and it took me another 5 hours to get back to -5 units, and then I left.

How much is your 4u bet? zg

 

[Kasi]

How much is your 4u bet? zg

What color is your white horse?

 

[DonR]

How much is your 4u bet? zg

Usually I play $10 or $15 tables, so $40-$60.

 

[sagefr0g]

Usually I play $10 or $15 tables, so $40-$60.

oh, ok i was going by a five dollar unit.
if it's a ten dollar unit, then $0.07/hr!:cow::whip:
i'd stay offa them $15 tables.
can't you find $5 tables?

edit: oh yeah and i was going by a full table sort of conditions.......

 

[Sonny]

My game is 8D, 0.75 pen, dealer stands on soft 17, doubles after splits allowed, up to 4 splits, no surrender

Let's assume I wong out at -1.5 (no wonging in). My bet spread is as follows:

between -1.5 and +2 - 1 unit
+2 - 2 units
+3 - 3 units
+4 and greater - 4 units

Perfect BS, with I18 adjustments. What should I expect in the long run?

A better bet spread would be:

<+1 = $15
+1 = $40
>+1 = $60

You would earn about $3/hour. With a $30k bankroll you would have about a 16% RoR. Now, compare that to a bigger 1:9 spread:

<+1 = $15
+1 = $40
+2 = $100
+3 = $130

Now you’re earning about $15/hour with only a 4.5% RoR. If you can spread to two hands then you can reduce that RoR even more (or increase the EV). Using a bigger spread will actually decrease your overall risk significantly if you do it properly. Like I always say, “It’s not the size of you’re bankroll, it's how you leverage it.”

-Sonny-

 

[DonR]

oh, ok i was going by a five dollar unit.
if it's a ten dollar unit, then $0.07/hr!:cow::whip:
i'd stay offa them $15 tables.
can't you find $5 tables?

Wow!...Only $0.07/hr...that sounds scary and almost fully justifies my win stops. I guess that my winning streak of 110 units won in 10 sessions (for the total of around 15 hours of play) was nothing more than good luck...extraordinary good luck. I still feel that wonging out and my win stops had to do something about it as well, at least I hope so.

$5 tables are very tough to find, in my case. Even $10 are not very easy to find, and quite a few times I couldn't even find a spot at a $15 table. Casinos are just way too greedy.

Thanks, sagefr0g

A better bet spread would be:

<+1 = $15
+1 = $40
>+1 = $60

You would earn about $3/hour. With a $30k bankroll you would have about a 16% RoR. Now, compare that to a bigger 1:9 spread:

<+1 = $15
+1 = $40
+2 = $100
+3 = $130

Now you’re earning about $15/hour with only a 4.5% RoR. If you can spread to two hands then you can reduce that RoR even more (or increase the EV). Using a bigger spread will actually decrease your overall risk significantly if you do it properly. Like I always say, “It’s not the size of you’re bankroll, it's how you leverage it.”

-Sonny-

Very interesting figures, thanks Sonny.

 

[sagefr0g]

Wow!...Only $0.07/hr...that sounds scary and almost fully justifies my win stops. I guess that my winning streak of 110 units won in 10 sessions (for the total of around 15 hours of play) was nothing more than good luck...extraordinary good luck. I still feel that wonging out and my win stops had to do something about it as well, at least I hope so.

$5 tables are very tough to find, in my case. Even $10 are not very easy to find, and quite a few times I couldn't even find a spot at a $15 table. Casinos are just way too greedy.

Thanks, sagefr0g



Very interesting figures, thanks Sonny.

like Sonny says changing the bet structure around makes a differance.
i just put the figures you gave me in my cvcx simulator. for conditions that seemed likely (big crowds).
but yes, perilously close to voodoo here, the luck thing is quite possibly very much a factor. thing is for the price of a simulator such as cvcx (about equivalent price to a losing night of blackjack or less) and a free download of Sonny's and Kasi's spread sheet you would be able to put some quantification on the factor of luck, standard deviation, expected value and other considerations such as shooting for goals and trip risk of ruin, ect.
that way you'd know just what to expect as far as expectation, standard deviation, luck, risk of ruin and probabilities of reaching goals ect.
this would give you a handle to ponder over the various scenerio's you might end up in, to where you can think about how you want to deal with the various situations.
but voodoo i know still thinking of your situation (similar to mine ) you might ask questions such as what are my bankroll realities, what level of financial stress can i handle, what are the best conditions can i find.
as an example Sonny threw out a $30K roll and a bet ramp and spread and expectations, ROR sort of thing. another factor in that is variance and standard deviation and your skill level. just a thought, know that a perfect card counter could lose that $30k roll. i'm just gonna guess and say at least that counter could expect one heck of a wild roller coaster ride as far as how that roll goes up and down, lol.
so but maybe, champ you can weigh the prospects of losing a $30k roll and the prospects of perhaps a lesser roll such as you have now i suspect, up against playing how you are now with a virtual break even game and the wild ride that just that probably affords.
going perilous close to voodoo again here, champ, lol. just maybe put some thought into it all lol (maybe don't take the science more seriously than your self sort of thing), protect your self at all times, keep those hands up, bob & weave, dance, rope that dope.

 

[callipygian]

I'm under the impression that it actually might be less obvious to go with more Wonging and less spreading

It depends how good you are at Wonging. Backcounting is probably more obvious than bet spreading, and you'll attract attention if you don't do it well. The main reason people overlook the obviousness of Wonging is that they don't realize that surveillance is much more concerned about chip thieves than card counters. If you're lurking around a table with no obvious purpose in mind, you might be suspected of looking to steal chips.

I never realized before how important Wonging is.

Not important - powerful. It has its downsides, and if you're playing at the same casino over and over again, honestly, it's going to be hard to Wong aggressively.

Also keep in mind the difference between EV and win rate. Wonging will raise your EV, but lower your win rate. If you're counting regularly, you probably care more about win rate than EV; it's mostly casual counters with low bankrolls that will care about EV more than win rate.