Thrashed again!
- Thread starter blackchipjim
- Start date
No i do agree. You may have an advantage over the dealer but you never know what cards are going to come, say you are on a TC of +6 (like i was when just playing by my self yesterday).
I put a nice stack of chips down, i get a 4 and a 5, dealer gets king. I obviously hit, i get a jack, stick, dealer gets another king!
Next hand i stick another nice stack of chips down, i get 17 dealer gets 20 again.
It basicly went on like that all night, i just couldn't win.
I put a nice stack of chips down, i get a 4 and a 5, dealer gets king. I obviously hit, i get a jack, stick, dealer gets another king!
Next hand i stick another nice stack of chips down, i get 17 dealer gets 20 again.
It basicly went on like that all night, i just couldn't win.
It's a really great option for people who don't want to lose all their money, you should look into it.
It can even work for civilian gamblers, you know, those guys who want to just go out, kill some time, and have some fun gambling. If they bet small enough and play for short enough time, they're never going to run out of money either, despite playing at a disadvantage the whole time. Like if Warren Buffet was a red-chip player once a year.
It can even work for civilian gamblers, you know, those guys who want to just go out, kill some time, and have some fun gambling. If they bet small enough and play for short enough time, they're never going to run out of money either, despite playing at a disadvantage the whole time. Like if Warren Buffet was a red-chip player once a year.
Kasi said:
Is there any chance at all that you've been "fortunate" to never lose 50% of roll because you know you are playing at a pretty low ROR to begin with when you play and you know the chances of losing 50% of your roll before you play? 
-Sonny-
sagefr0g said:
what the heck causes swings?
just plain ole Lady Luck?
just plain ole Lady Luck?
It is when the luck is good!
Although if I could get rid of the luck completely I would be much happier. If I always earned my EV at the end of every hour of play this game would be much more tolerable. That’s another reason why it’s important to play with the biggest advantage you can get. The bigger your advantage (relative to the variance) the sooner you can expect to earn your paycheck. For example, I once found a game with a N0 of 50 hours. Unfortunately it was burned out by the time I got back to play it, but there are times when the long run is only a few days away. If you can get a big enough advantage, the variance can become insignificant. The goal of any serious player should be to minimize luck and maximize skill.-Sonny-
None. How many lottery players win money? Less than 1% maybe? How many APs win money? More than 90% maybe? I much prefer those odds. Also, just because you get lucky and win millions of dollars doesn't mean you won't go broke. There have been many lucky lottery winners who blew their money on useless things. A smart person can make that money last forever. I would much rather be smart than lucky. The risk of ruin is much lower.
-Sonny-
-Sonny-
And it only takes one bad bet to blow it all. Give a man a fish and he'll eat for a day, but teach him some skills and he'll never go hungry again. I'd still rather be smart than lucky. Today's lucky man is tomorrow's unlucky man. A smart man can create his own luck.
It depends on how good he is. The more skillful he is, the sooner he'll get that home run. Also, an AP doesn't need to hit a home run the way a gambler does. For an AP, just a little extra income is often enough to nurture into a very healthy nest egg. It's like I say in every single post I've ever made, "It's not the size of your bankrol..." well you know the rest.
-Sonny-
It depends on how good he is. The more skillful he is, the sooner he'll get that home run. Also, an AP doesn't need to hit a home run the way a gambler does. For an AP, just a little extra income is often enough to nurture into a very healthy nest egg. It's like I say in every single post I've ever made, "It's not the size of your bankrol..." well you know the rest.
-Sonny-
Black chipper
Shoe, like 6 or 8 decks? Did they offer surrender? Great rules?
Do you play to win with discipline or just *need* to play.
When I read a post such as yours I think there is more to it, that maybe you brought it on by your personal choices in regards to choice of games, mental, physical condition etc.
What is missing here?
CP
Shoe, like 6 or 8 decks? Did they offer surrender? Great rules?
Do you play to win with discipline or just *need* to play.
When I read a post such as yours I think there is more to it, that maybe you brought it on by your personal choices in regards to choice of games, mental, physical condition etc.
What is missing here?
CP
Technically, lottery AP is possible. Some state lotteries have records of when the top instant lottery prizes are claimed and in situations where there is a high density of big prizes left among the remaining unsold tickets you could have +EV.
It also may be possible to play progressive jackpot games like Powerball for +EV. First you have to wait for the jackpot to be high enough such that the game is +EV for a single jackpot winner. Then you have to make an estimate of how many tickets will be sold to calculate the chances of you having one or more partners if you do win the jackpot. You can tweak this by buying your tickets during conditions that are likely to depress the sales of lottery tickets e.g. hurricanes, major blackouts. I believe lottery sales data (as a function of jackpot value) is available as public record.
Disclaimer: I have never actually tried any of this!
It also may be possible to play progressive jackpot games like Powerball for +EV. First you have to wait for the jackpot to be high enough such that the game is +EV for a single jackpot winner. Then you have to make an estimate of how many tickets will be sold to calculate the chances of you having one or more partners if you do win the jackpot. You can tweak this by buying your tickets during conditions that are likely to depress the sales of lottery tickets e.g. hurricanes, major blackouts. I believe lottery sales data (as a function of jackpot value) is available as public record.
Disclaimer: I have never actually tried any of this!
Richard Pugh said:
I do the same - I was beaten all ends up in one casino a while ago, so I opened a new account somewhere else and made it all back plus more over a couple of sessions.
It doesn't make it any easier for you today but just remember if the bad shoes are in front of you, then someone else somewhere else is having the session of a lifetime as the ying/yang overall variance thing happens.
...and sooner or later you'll be ying and not yang - now can someone tell me where to play today?
It doesn't make it any easier for you today but just remember if the bad shoes are in front of you, then someone else somewhere else is having the session of a lifetime as the ying/yang overall variance thing happens.
...and sooner or later you'll be ying and not yang - now can someone tell me where to play today?
I got roasted - from a starting point of £400 I got to £475 (+19%) and all the way back to £0 (-100%) in about 120 hands
Variance, Voodoo and SD seemed to be with me winning an average of 1 out of every 2 hands. I was drawing some nice naturals and collecting my doubles which helped me get ahead. Then all of a sudden (I tried for too long to reach 25%) harmony was restored and the tide turned. Nothing went right and the dealer even started pushing my BJ's
Still £500 up for May/June tho' - I'm sure some of that will get invested another day
Quick question - I can't count and I was online anyway (CSM, so call me a BS Ploppy as I can't get an advantgage even if I knew how) - but I just wondered do the AP players out there always play BS like a robot or are there times when you duck out on a hunch - like standing on a 12 vs 2 because a big bet is out, you have a 'feeling' it's a 10 at the top and you'd prefer him to win it (hole of 5,6,7,8,9) than to bust it yourself.
Taking the 12v2 situation (and without teaching anyone to suck eggs) can I check my maths? I'm not talking about making a hit or stand decision in accordance with the count which is an obvious AP play (although after 3 cards the count must be weak anyway and that in itself weakens my theory as an 'AP' player wouldn't have that big bet out unless steaming) but I'm talking about purely going against BS for the 'heck' of it or is that impossible once you can count?
Assuming your playing heads up from a fresh 6 deck shoe (and ignoring your hand composition as it's neglible in the 309:312 'up-card' scheme of things), there's an 8:5 chance (62.5%) chance the dealer will lose? Either he won't be able to stand after one more card i.e hole card of A,2,3,4 or will bust after one more 10,J,Q,K). You could argue that 62.5% of the time you'll catch a low one from the shoe so I suppose you have a 12.5% advantage by hitting but you can choose and he can't?
And if he's stiff already his chances of winning reduce with every additional hit he has to make
I know in theory every time you go against BS you surrender a bit to the house but in one round it can't be a huge amount (?) and there were a few times today when I played a marginal hunch (e.g. standing on a 14/15/16 vs a Dealer 10) and as if I was 'in sync' with the shoe (RNG) most of them worked ?
Didn't last long tho' and when the tide turned I played pure BS but nothing was gonna stop that rollercoaster today
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