Too good to be true!

V

Vanir

Member
#1
#1
Hi folks!

I am a novice in BJ. Got interested in the game. I have got trained by the BJ strategy trainer at the site and have downloaded a BJ software from another one. I have mastered the Basic Strategy at the 99% correct answers rate. My problem is that most of the time I win. Within a month I have won US$29K. What bothers me is either I am too lucky or smart (but I am not, for sure) or the PC programs have been designed especially to mock me in that believe and force me in the a real casino play. What do you think of that?
 
V

Vanir

Member
#3
#3
What is "betting too large"?

What is "betting too large"? I play $10 bet game and never exceed $50 after double or split. And I make a point for myself never use negative progression. It turns devastating! Besides do you know a standard deviation for the $10 bet game?
 
V

Vanir

Member
#6
#6
I agree it seems the software I pretty bad. It is good only for training BS. What HiLo do you suggest I or II. And what system is better? I know there are mush accurate systems that HiLo but they are too complicated.
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
#7
#7
Vanir said:
I agree it seems the software I pretty bad. It is good only for training BS. What HiLo do you suggest I or II. And what system is better? I know there are mush accurate systems that HiLo but they are too complicated.
Click to expand...
I suggest KO. zg
 
Mikeaber

Mikeaber

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
KO seems to be a pretty adequate system for a beginning counter. One thing to stress that oft times gets lost in the fog: Make sure you have an adequate bankroll to match your betting spreads.

I've tackled a casino 7 times now with KO using a 50 unit bankroll and a 1:10 spread (6-deck game.) I've pushed 4 times, won twice and lost once. The time I lost...I lost in the first shoe when the count was high and I had max bets out and lost each of those bets in addition to the minimum bets I'd lost when the count was bad! The point is, 50 units for a bankroll is not enough to feel comfortable that you are not going to lose it all before reaching a goal, even if that goal is breaking even!

Example, with a double deck game, a 100 unit bankroll betting a 1:5 spread yields somewhere aroung a 36% chance of losing the whole wad. That doesn't mean you have a 64% chance of winning. It means that 64% of the time, you'll walk away with at least 1 unit of your original bankroll!

I think maybe more beginning counters get discouraged because they are not aware of this factor than any other. They simply do not have the financial backing to give it a chance to work.
 
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S

ScottH

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
Mikeaber said:
KO seems to be a pretty adequate system for a beginning counter. One thing to stress that oft times gets lost in the fog: Make sure you have an adequate bankroll to match your betting spreads.

I've tackled a casino 7 times now with KO using a 50 unit bankroll and a 1:10 spread (6-deck game.) I've pushed 4 times, won twice and lost once. The time I lost...I lost in the first shoe when the count was high and I had max bets out and lost each of those bets in addition to the minimum bets I'd lost when the count was bad! The point is, 50 units for a bankroll is not enough to feel comfortable that you are not going to lose it all before reaching a goal, even if that goal is breaking even!

Example, with a double deck game, a 100 unit bankroll betting a 1:5 spread yields somewhere aroung a 36% chance of losing the whole wad. That doesn't mean you have a 64% chance of winning. It means that 64% of the time, you'll walk away with at least 1 unit of your original bankroll!

I think maybe more beginning counters get discouraged because they are not aware of this factor than any other. They simply do not have the financial backing to give it a chance to work.
Click to expand...
Shouldn't you have more like 100 maximum bets for your bankroll? A 50 or 100 unit bankroll seems way too small to have any chance of success.
 
E

E-town-guy

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
My total BR is about 100 max bets. Mikeaber might have been referring to your session BR, the money you bring to the casino on a given day. But you never know with ol'Mike ;)
 
Mikeaber

Mikeaber

Well-Known Member
#11
#11
Yes ETG....session BR is what I was talking about. I took 50-unit bankrolls. You are right and that was the point I was trying to make....that's WAY too small. A 100-unit bankroll is borderline in my opinion. From what I can determine from reading, a 100 unit bankroll gives you somewhere around a 36% or 37% Risk of Losing it all. But if you can double that to 200 units, that risk drops to around 23%. If you can go for 400 units, it drops to below 10%. Understand though that I'm talking about losing your entire BR. That does not imply that you are going to come out ahead if you dodge losing it all!

To further expound on the 7 sessions I referred to, on the sessions that I "pushed", I went down after several shoes, but came back after a few good counts and quit when I got back to even. These sessions were around 2 to 4 hours in duration....except for the one that I lost in the first shoe. Only in the one that I lost did I get down so far in the first shoe that I didn't have the bankroll to come back and had to pull back from the table in the early part of the second shoe. That was a SHORT session! Maybe 30 minutes.
 
NDN21

NDN21

Well-Known Member
#12
#12
Vanir said:
My problem is that most of the time I win.
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:laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

That there tells me either you don't have any idea of what you are doing and just getting lucky or are flat-out not telling the whole truth (probably the second one).
 
V

Vanir

Member
#13
#13
To NDN21

I guess I know what I am doing. First, I've mastered Basic Strategy and make it automatic to take decisions at a glance. I don't even think about whether I shall hit, stand, split or double down. 99% of these are correct. Second, nobody is getting lucky every day. Third, I studied theory of probabilities and social statistics at Columbia.

And being a lawyer, may I ask you a question what motive do I have to "flat-out not telling whole truth"? I don't see any.

Anyway, I agree with Zengrifter my soft is not adequate. It is good only for practicing BS.

Besides, excuse my ignorance: what does KO stand for?
 
Mikeaber

Mikeaber

Well-Known Member
#14
#14
Vanir said:
Besides, excuse my ignorance: what does KO stand for?
Click to expand...
KO stands for Knock Out Blackjack. This is a counting method developed by Olaf Vancura and Ken Fuchs. The book describing the methods is available here at this site in the "store.
 
U

user44

Member
#15
#15
Vanir

I'm in the same position as you to some extent...I played real BJ in an Indian casino a few years ago. When I couldn't work because of bad weather.
I'm a helicopter pilot, and was waiting for the weather to clear in some podunk town in Louisiana...

Went up to the 'stop n go' for a cup of coffee, and saw a stunning woman in a ball gown...Tried to hit on her in a nice way...Asked if she was late getting home..She said NO! she was on her way to work at the Casino just behind the stand of trees...

This was around 10.30am....Anyway, the Project Manager cut us loose around noon, based on the weather outlook for the day...So I hit the Casino (along with my Engineer) basically to try to find this woman...

Anyway, couldn't find her..(place is immense) so settled down to watch the BJ..Watched for a couple of hours and then started playing....

I'm not a gambler, and don't know anything about counting cards etc...But using a basic system of doubling every bet I lost, and then going back to the minimum table stake once I won again...I took out $1700.00 in around 7 hours..
Went back the next day (still bad weather) and won another 600...

This is with my basic strategy...meaning I haven't studied books etc..just common sense

Anyway, the way life is..I never got opportunity to play again...Until I found the online deal...The one I'm using is Casino Verite BJ...just a download from the web...I won $5700.00 on my first game (around 5 hours) and $1100.00 on my second game of around 3 hours...

I'm working in the UK at present and the Casino thing here is kinda
'Old Worldly'...It doesn't help that I despise the Brits after being here for 2 years (one year left on the contract)...

Anyway..My experience is not much better than yours...I'm no Pro!

First night was a joint called Grosvenor Casino....I walk out after 5 hours with £19700.00 which is around $34000.00...I could do no wrong...

Went back 3 nites later and won £6300.00 and then they asked me to leave...

I don't cheat (don't know how!) well dressed and sober....They said I could play poker etc, but no more BJ....The places are registered as private clubs, so they can admit (or deny admission) to anyone they want....

I have absolutely no idea idea how to cheat...In fact I'v got no idea how to play even...Just sucks though that if you have some luck (that's all it is) these guys can ban you..In fact I didn't ask them if I'm banned for life...But anyway....I don't know enough about the game to give you advice...But if it's beginners luck....Grab some while you can...

Best of luck....Thomas
 
U

user44

Member
#16
#16
By unit bankrolls......Do you mean the minimum bet factored by X

As in a game with a minimum bet of $10...would a 100 unit bankroll be 1000.00?...
 
Mikeaber

Mikeaber

Well-Known Member
#17
#17
user44 said:
By unit bankrolls......Do you mean the minimum bet factored by X

As in a game with a minimum bet of $10...would a 100 unit bankroll be 1000.00?...
Click to expand...
I was just going to answer with "yes", but you have to tpye in a reply of at least 10 characters so "Yes Sir, it is".
 
Mikeaber

Mikeaber

Well-Known Member
#19
#19
user44 said:
Thanks Mike....
Click to expand...
I'm basing that 100-unit BR on a double deck game, counting with KO and betting a 1:5 unit spread. 100 is not a really good BR. Needs to be more like 500 units if you are looking to have a more risk free run at the casino. I wish that I had that kind of BR to give myself a reasonable shot. I'll most likely crater but am determined to give it a shot.
 
U

user44

Member
#20
#20
Using basic strategy: No stupid moves, but the occasional error due being a neophyte....

Based on a long losing streak>>>

Bet 1 is 10...you lose
Bet 2 is 20...you lose (30 total)
Bet 3 is 40...you lose (70 total)
Bet 4 is 80...you lose (150 total)
Bet 5 is 160...you lose (310 total)
Bet 6 is 320 ...you lose(630 total)
Bet 7 is 640 ...you lose(1270 total)
Bet 8 is 1280...you lose(2550 total)
Bet 9 is 2000.00 (you win this or perhaps an earlier bet, where you started again at minimum bet)

Ok..The place I'm playing is 10.00 min to 2,000.00 max, so the last bet would be 2000...

So far (yes it's early days yet) I haven't gone more than about 6-7 hands without breaking even....What's the worst case scenario (if you don't get spooked and stay with basic tactics?)

Forgetting BJ odds 3:2 etc....

Using the basic system...Will this lead to ruination in the long term?

This is all I've done in my short BJ career, and yes, it's really tough to put the last couple of bets down. But I did it consistently and it worked.

Yes, I know I'm only getting my own money back to start again, but if sticking with basic strategy and going back to minimum bet each time you win. Why won't it work in the longer term...

I'm not trying to minimize the efforts a lot of you guys have made with various techniques etc..Just trying to understand the good luck I've been having, and I suppose wondering when it's going to come to an end?

If you don't hit the table limit (which where I am can be negotiated, don't know if this is standard?..But you can ask the manager to raise the limit for X amount of time!, maybe he will, maybe he won't, I never tried, but that's what the brochure says!)....

Any advice will be appreciated, unless it's from the sad SOB's who are jealous because a rookie can have a little luck, in this case blow it out your a** ...

Thomas
 
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