Top 6 cover play deviations from BS ?

[UK-21]

Opinions on this ?

I've read of these two:-

Always take even money - this is incorrect play at minus counts, but would be correct play at pos counts where there are more chips on the table?

Always stand on 16 v dealer 10 - again, incorrect play when there's only the minimum on the table but correct play when the shoe (sorry, only shoe games in the UK) warms up?


What about other borderline plays? Hitting a 12 v 4 perhaps or standing on an A6 v 7 or A7 v 9 at high neg counts? Are there 10 such variances to BS that fall have roughly the same effect (ie effect on the edge) ?

In a book I have, there is a list of BS plays and their beneficial or detrimental effect on the edge (in %age terms) - trouble is I've lent this to a friend, and won't be getting it back for a while.

Newb99

 

[jack.jackson]

Opinions on this ?

I've read of these two:-

Always take even money - this is incorrect play at minus counts, but would be correct play at pos counts where there are more chips on the table?

Always stand on 16 v dealer 10 - again, incorrect play when there's only the minimum on the table but correct play when the shoe (sorry, only shoe games in the UK) warms up?


What about other borderline plays? Hitting a 12 v 4 perhaps or standing on an A6 v 7 or A7 v 9 at high neg counts? Are there 10 such variances to BS that fall have roughly the same effect (ie effect on the edge) ?

In a book I have, there is a list of BS plays and their beneficial or detrimental effect on the edge (in %age terms) - trouble is I've lent this to a friend, and won't be getting it back for a while.

Newb99

Only take even $, In modest or higher counts.

Stand 16vsX,12vs4,@ 0 or higher.

Always hit A6vs7 even at xtreme - counts

Always stand A7vs8(technically you can hit this at xtreme - counts, but its so rare just forget about it.

LEARN, THE ILLUSTRIOUS 18!

 

[zengrifter]

Only take even $, In modest or higher counts.

Stand 16vsX,12vs4,@ 0 or higher.

Always hit A6vs7 even at xtreme - counts

Always stand A7vs8(technically you can hit this at xtreme - counts, but its so rare just forget about it.

LEARN, THE ILLUSTRIOUS 18!

But what about COVER PLAYS? zg

 

[jack.jackson]

But what about COVER PLAYS? zg

Not sure I understood the original question of the poster, but if hes asking, what are the most popular deviations from BS, that happen to look like bad plays to the pit-bulls. Then Id have to say the I18 are it.

 

[QFIT]

See

http://www.blackjackincolor.com/cardcountingcover5.htm

and

http://www.blackjackincolor.com/cardcountingcover6.htm

​

 

[Sonny]

Also see Ian Anderson's Burning the Tables in Las Vegas and Don Schlesinger's Blackjack Attack for more info about cheap cover moves.

-Sonny-

 

[BJinNJ]

Since you don't have your BJA3 with you...

I found these posts in the archives of cardcounter.com

<<The question of good "bad plays" is an old one. Here is a short list of some good "bad plays"... why, because they are how ploppies play, and they don't cost too much. Standing on 15 vs. T is VERY expensive.

Stand on A-7 vs. 9, T, or A
Stand on 12 vs. 3
Don't double A-7 against anything.
Don't double 8 vs. 5/6 in single deck.
Stand on A-8 vs. 5,6 in single deck.
Don't split 9's against an 8.

Just a few...

The problem with standing on T-5 vs. T is that it is a play advantage players often make. It looks like an advantage play, not a stupid ploppy play. Now, standing on A-3 vs. T, that would be a ploppy play -- next time, if you want to spend a lot of EV on a play, at least get your money's worth.
--Mayor

========================================================

Grossjean's "18s" and other dumb-ones
Posted by zengrifter on 20-Nov-2002 02:22:02 (#739)

Beyond Counting's JGrossjean recommends misplaying certain of the '18s', most of which stand out when played correctly - A7v9-10-A, 99v8-9, I also like splitting 1010v2,7,8 (small bet) which establishes me as a 10splitter - another, 22v8-9, looks worse than it is.

The key of course is to use 'dumb-plays' sparingly - on a recent visit to a small-stakes 1D casino I stood on A6v7 - in yet another (while appearing moderately drunk) I doubled for less 16v7 (I only put up a dollar extra, for the dealer!). zg >>

link: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/cc/4.php
(these posts are pretty far down the page.)

BJinNJ

 

[Bashful C. Stupid-Butt]

Colorado was AWESOME!

My last trip to the casino resulted in a win of $130.00 over 3 complete shoes. I made a few bad plays and the table was kind of hard on me even though my bad plays resulted in a loss for me and a win for most of the table.

those plays were,

Double Down on A7 and A8 against dealers' 3-6
Standing on A6 against dealer's any
And hitting 12 against dealer's 3 and 4

My explanations to the table were DD on soft 18, 19 gives me an advantage over the house because I am raising my bet after being able to see the dealer's up card

Standing on A6 was due to the complaints

And hitting 12 against the dealer's 3 and 4 was because I had to be right 50% of the time.

I still walked away a winner and so did everyone else at the table, and one guy was still there with a big stack of 5 dollar chips when I left.

 

[Sonny]

Colorado was AWESOME! My last trip to the casino resulted in a win of $130.00 over 3 complete shoes.

You were playing in Colorado? That's a lot to win in 3 shoes with a $5 table max.

-Sonny-

 

[Bashful C. Stupid-Butt]

No. I was playing in Joliet, Ill., before my vacation. I just got back. I told the story already, I was just going into detail on a few hands, possible bad plays.

Central City in Colorado has 1-5 dollar tables. Not much room for winning and definitely no room to make up losses.

I can see where anyone would be confused considering the title has nothing to do with the content, won't happen again.

 

[Renzey]

Opinions on this ?
Always take even money - this is incorrect play at minus counts, but would be correct play at pos counts where there are more chips on the table?
Always stand on 16 v dealer 10 - again, incorrect play when there's only the minimum on the table but correct play when the shoe (sorry, only shoe games in the UK) warms up?
What about other borderline plays? Hitting a 12 v 4 perhaps or standing on an A6 v 7 or A7 v 9 at high neg counts?
Newb99

I don't like taking Even Money as a matter of course. In a neutral count it costs 3.8% of the original bet and occurs about once every 280 hands.

I don't like routinely standing with 16 vs. 10. Neutral cost is only 0.5% of the bet, but the occurance is about once every 30 hands.

Hitting 12 vs. 4 is okay with me at near neutral counts -- a truly negligible play; comes up about once every 130 hands.

Standing with A/6 vs. 7 costs a full 16% -- never do it!

Standing with A/7 vs. 9 costs 8.5% -- I can't do that, especially when I'm going to have to hit A/7 vs. 10 because it comes up nearly four times as often.

There are lots of other hands that cost much less and can fit into the ploppy image. One or two of them come up very often and you can pick and choose when to make them.

 

[TENNBEAR]

I use few cover plays, however double a 10 against dealer 10 seems to always draw attention as a dumb play while giving up very little. If you pretend to slowly struggle with your multi-card totals, and hesitate slightly when making difficult BS decisions. They will not realize your counting, they will think you are another ploppy: the only trick here is not to over do it, you are still playing nearly perfect BS.

 

[callipygian]

I personally don't ever use cover plays any more, because I honestly haven't ever needed them. Remember that cover plays are only for people who would otherwise get heat. If you're playing low stakes, you might not get heat even if you sat there blatantly Wonging in at +2 and spreading 1:20. I tend to Wong in / Wong out pretty aggressively, so even if they suspect me of counting from the beginning, they'll get maybe 10-15 minutes of data before I typically leave.

I always do take even money, though, but not as a cover play. I forget where I read this, but there's another reason to take even money - variance. By taking even money, you give up some EV but you lower your variance. I'll take a sure $1.00 rather than risk it for $1.02-$1.04, and of course, at high counts it's the right play to make anyway.

When I did use cover plays, I always preferred the ones that were correct at higher counts, which means they cost less money because you're playing correctly when you have big bets out.

- Take even money.
- Stand on hard 16 vs. dealer 10.
- Stand on hard 12 vs. dealer 3.
- Double hard 9 vs. dealer 2.
- Double soft 18 vs. dealer 2 (back when most Vegas games were S17 and the correct play was to stand).

 

[UK-21]

I will endeavour to recover the book I lent out and will publish (in this thread) the top 10 lowest neg %age plays. Those that have already been referred to I'm sure will be in the list.

The 14 v XX at high neg counts is an interesting one. If there is a high neg count it would signify that there is a greater number of 2-6s than 10s in the offing. So hitting this would have a higher chance of resulting in a better hand. And there is of course the 7s that will pull a 21. I'm working my way through learning the Red7 system (thought the I18 and F4 would be the final brain damage), and so half the 7s would contribute to the high neg count? Haven't done any sums to come up with numbers to qualify this though. Thoughts?

The issue of cover play is something most of the books I've read don't go into in too much detail. Where I play, I think anyone who religiously sticks to BS (I'm pretty sure learning it is part of the dealers training programme - along with taking a turn being a floor waiter), spreads bets only around 20% of the time (pos counts) and tends to make most of their winnings when doing so, will stand out. Add into the mix spreading exact multiples of £x and you might as well wear a fluroescent green t-shirt with a big "C" on it. Although in the UK, things are probably not as finely tuned as in the States, I don't think for one minute the people working in the relatively few regional casinos are silly. I think most of the dealers where I have played were students or recent graduates filling in some time and making a few bob, and as such will be bright enough to see trends in play.

Thanks for all contributions, but please don't be shy with further comments and feedback.

Newb99.

 

[callipygian]

The 14 v XX at high neg counts is an interesting one. If there is a high neg count it would signify that there is a greater number of 2-6s than 10s in the offing. So hitting this would have a higher chance of resulting in a better hand.

If the count is so negative that you're considering hitting 14 vs. dealer 2-6, you're almost certainly better off taking a bathroom break than putting a single dime on the felt.

You want your cover plays to be correct at high counts, not correct at low counts. That's how you'll minimize the cost.

 

[Cardcounter]

Doubling for less!

Doubling for less on a hard 12 vs a 2 or doubling for less on a hard 16 vs a 7! Double down for $1 you aren't going to want another card no matter what. So you only give up about 25 cents in value.

 

[UK-21]

Thanks for that.

While the advice around "wonging in" to play at high counts, and leaving the table at poor counts is correct, there is the thorny issue of tenancy at the table - where I'm likely to play, once you've parked your bottom onto a free stool at a table that's yours for however long you want it. Enjoy playing. Get up and leave and that's likely to be it for the evening, as someone else will be wanting to get some of the action. I suspect that 7 players at the table will be the norm, and certainly after 7.00pm in the evening. Not great, but that's what's on offer.

So you're there. Playing minimum stakes for the privilege of keeping the seat warm and waiting for things to warm up. The count goes well neg (TC of -3?), and you pull a 14 against a dealer's 5. Do you stand, as dictated by BS, or hit knowing there is a higher number of 2-6s still to come - and the dealer could well pull one and end up with a made hand. What have you got to lose by hitting ?

That was really the crux of my question - as well as using what you know about the state of the shoe to play in a rising count, using what you know in order to improve a pretty crap hand off of a cold shoe?

Newb99.

 

[Richard Pugh]

Thanks for that.

While the advice around "wonging in" to play at high counts, and leaving the table at poor counts is correct, there is the thorny issue of tenancy at the table - where I'm likely to play, once you've parked your bottom onto a free stool at a table that's yours for however long you want it. Enjoy playing. Get up and leave and that's likely to be it for the evening, as someone else will be wanting to get some of the action. I suspect that 7 players at the table will be the norm, and certainly after 7.00pm in the evening. Not great, but that's what's on offer.

So you're there. Playing minimum stakes for the privilege of keeping the seat warm and waiting for things to warm up. The count goes well neg (TC of -3?), and you pull a 14 against a dealer's 5. Do you stand, as dictated by BS, or hit knowing there is a higher number of 2-6s still to come - and the dealer could well pull one and end up with a made hand. What have you got to lose by hitting ?

That was really the crux of my question - as well as using what you know about the state of the shoe to play in a rising count, using what you know in order to improve a pretty crap hand off of a cold shoe?

Newb99.

I'm sure someone with a proper backgorund will explain the maths clearly but imho that play seems marginal. If you stand you could lose and if you hit you could easily lose aswell. The only thing to help may be a quick composition analyisis of the other totals e.g say all 6 other players had 18s, are those 18s 10/8s, 9/9s or A/7s or have the hit their way to a 4,5,3,6s and the count is only low because of it running from previous rounds.

I think unless you've got some sort of side count going on the answer you'll probably get is play the hand to BS - after all the idea of BS isn't to win the most hands (although that's nice ), it's to capitalise on opportunities like doubles and splits.

If it was me in the seat I'd also consider my bet - I hate hitting a stiff when the money is up, psychologically I prefer him to win it than me to give it away. It's stupid really 'cos I'll hit a $5 bet without thinking but a $100 bet often makes me bottle out.

 

[21forme]

While the advice around "wonging in" to play at high counts, and leaving the table at poor counts is correct, there is the thorny issue of tenancy at the table - where I'm likely to play, once you've parked your bottom onto a free stool at a table that's yours for however long you want it. Enjoy playing. Get up and leave and that's likely to be it for the evening, as someone else will be wanting to get some of the action.

Every casino I've been to will hold a spot for you if you get up for a phone call, bathroom break, etc.

 

[BJinNJ]

Newbie ?: When you get up for a bathroom break...

1) how do you reserve your spot?
2) do you take your chips with you?

BJinNJ