Maybe someone can run when a slug is loaded enough to statistically warrant a raise in wager when it meets a slug from a shoe that is - the same number. Or am I being crazy? (I was going to say batty, but then I remember that batty was a British slang word that insulted homosexuals, so I decided against it, thought I would let you know for no particular reason, I just thought the thought process was funny)
Tracking vs straight counting
- Thread starter lol6deck
- Start date
kewljason said:
Well, I don't know how magical it all is. :laugh: And as I said, my efforts are very elementary, but you will notice my emphasis on 'very high slug'. Say you are playing a 6 deck game. You track a half deck slug that was +12. After 2 shuffles your half deck is now mixed into a 2 deck portion of the shoe. Now, I am not saying that 2 deck portion is +12. It may be deleted to +6 or +4 or even wiped out completely. It may even be +16 by now. A whole lot of unknown. But doesn't your "common sense" tells you, that 2 deck segment of the shoe has a better chance of being positive than negative? Again, I am not willing to risk 10, 12 or 16 units with all this unknown, but a marginal bump up seems reasonable to me, common sense-wise. 
Also should I assume that when you say you track a very high slug, you really mean a slug of -12 not +12? As in you are tracking a slug rich in high cards not low cards? I mean you can do both but of course one you will cut in the other you will cut out. If you are cutting your track in play, I hope you are cutting high cards in. Of course after the shuffle a high card slug will now be a positive count due to the information you have gathered and the removal of the low cards that can be accounted for giving you your actual positive count. As you play your track your count should drop. When you finish your track you should not play the rest of the shoe or at least bet minimum as your count will no longer be representative of the remaining shoe. This is of course if you are playing your track with assumed random cards shuffled in. If you can track mating slugs that will be different.
Shuffle tracking is NOT rocket science. It does not take someone with a genius IQ, or a supernatural memory. It is not magic. It's only a matter of learning a few SIMPLE techniques.
Basically; what the naysayers are trying to tell us is: "I haven't learned how to shuffle track, THEREFORE shuffle tracking is impossible." :laugh:
I wish I had a nickle for every time some non-professional has made that very same statement about card counting.
Basically; what the naysayers are trying to tell us is: "I haven't learned how to shuffle track, THEREFORE shuffle tracking is impossible." :laugh:
I wish I had a nickle for every time some non-professional has made that very same statement about card counting.
Regarding which slug a "good slug" is married into, it seems like that information would be very good, but not necessary to gain an advantage. For example, in card counting, we know that on average, those high cards are distributed in the rest of the shoe. To do ST, we can guess that on average, that "good slug" will be married with an almost neutral slug. Sometimes it may be married with a low slug, but (almost) just as many times it will be married with a high slug. So again, while the extra information from which slug it's married to will give you twice the information, it doesn't seem necessary to gain an advantage. Thoughts?
Well this was pretty much my thinking as well, but Mr Bojack, 'voodooed' my thinking. :laugh: I certainly yield to his superior knowledge than your and my assumptions, no offense, assume_R. lol Anyway in my case, I am trying to track a slug that is high in aces. Since I side count aces, each half deck I see I note the aces, when I get a half deck that has say, 10-12 aces in it, I try to follow that slug through the shuffle, and usually end up with a section of the shoe that I believe to be higher than norm in aces. I then bump my wager up slightly when that section comes into play. Very crude, I know and apparently "voodoo" thinking.
Depends how many high cards are in that slug. The RC can still drop a lot, but remember there are still a total of 24 aces and 96 tens in a 6 deck shoe. So while the rest of the shoe will be slightly negative, depending on how many decks are in play it will still be close to neutral. So if you see 15 tens come out in a half deck, then you know that in approximately 5.5 decks there are 81 tens, or 14.7 tens per deck instead of the neutral 16 tens per deck. Slightly less but not too far off.
The crux
Shuffle tracking as nothing to do with IQ and everthing to with skill. It's an art to some it comes natural and to some they must put alot of practice time in. I am not a good shuffle tracker I'm a novice to say the least but I can follow cards in a shuffle to some degree. How I use that information if I get the cut card is a another matter.
Shuffle tracking as nothing to do with IQ and everthing to with skill. It's an art to some it comes natural and to some they must put alot of practice time in. I am not a good shuffle tracker I'm a novice to say the least but I can follow cards in a shuffle to some degree. How I use that information if I get the cut card is a another matter.
Aw cmon KJ, thats not fair. If you said anything remotely like what assume r said then I would not have called it voodoo. In the post I called voodoo you made no mention of tracking aces, you were just guessing that you could yield an advantage, you had several different possible outcomes of what might happen, no mathematical reasoning for raising your bet, and were basically wrong in how big your track becomes after the shuffle, if in fact it is a 2 pass shuffle. Which playing Vegas and AC it is, although there are a couple of exceptions. It wasn't until after I suggested voodoo that you stated you track aces. I'm not here to beat anybody up on how they play, if it works for you great, if not I can suggest ways in maybe trying it differently. But not on the public board. Best of luck to you.
I didn't think you were 'beating me up'. I appreciate your thoughts. I was kidding when I said, you "voodooed" me.
I said early on my shuffle tracking is very casual and elementary. It is basically just an extention of my ace side counting, although if I notice a larger than usual clump of aces in a half deck, I try to notice ratio of high cards as well, but this is very casual. It is the aces that get my attention.
I actually don't get to even attempt this very often with my hit and run, very short session, style of play. I wong out pretty religously early on at a TC of -1.5, so if a bunch of aces (and/or high cards) were to hit the felt, the count has often tanked to the point that I am walking. So for the most part the two work against each other, exceptions being double deck games where I will stay longer or possibly late in a shoe.
I said early on my shuffle tracking is very casual and elementary. It is basically just an extention of my ace side counting, although if I notice a larger than usual clump of aces in a half deck, I try to notice ratio of high cards as well, but this is very casual. It is the aces that get my attention.
I actually don't get to even attempt this very often with my hit and run, very short session, style of play. I wong out pretty religously early on at a TC of -1.5, so if a bunch of aces (and/or high cards) were to hit the felt, the count has often tanked to the point that I am walking. So for the most part the two work against each other, exceptions being double deck games where I will stay longer or possibly late in a shoe.
Hypergeometric calculator
Help for black jack players:
http://stattrek.com/probability-distributions/hypergeometric.aspx
Help for black jack players:
http://stattrek.com/probability-distributions/hypergeometric.aspx
