Two questions regarding the "next level"

[willhou]

Hello, all. I've really enjoyed lurking here... lots of smart folks, lots of good advice. I have two questions that I'd like to throw out to the group, but first, a little about me. I played a LOT of card games as a kid, and when I turned 20, I decided I'd try to learn blackjack. I learned BS, then the Hi-Opt (thanks, Humble and Cooper), then the Hi-Lo (thanks again, Mr. Wong). When I turned 21, I started going to the casino once every few months, and though I bet the least I could get away with ($5-20 mostly) I basically broke even or won small amounts for most of my short trips. Now, a few years later, I have more bankroll than I did in my college days, and more time and inclination to travel to the casinos.

So here are my questions:

(1) I want to start betting up to $100 in the best situations. (Yes, I realize that implies a bankroll of $10-15k.) What is a good spread? The last two trips, I tried bigger bets along the following lines: table min ($5-15) at negative and zero counts, with strategically timed trips to the bathroom, $25 at TC 1, $50 at 2, $75 at 3, $100 at 4. Is this optimal for DD using Hi-Lo? How about 6D?

(2) I want to start keeping more rigorous records of my wins and losses (because, as above, I'm now thinking of myself as having a much larger BJ bankroll). What do I need to keep track of in my spreadsheet? I'm thinking dates, casinos, conditions, win/loss, hours played, comps received, hotel/travel expenses.... am I forgetting anything that I'll one day wish I'd kept better track of?

Thanks so much. Any and all wisdom is appreciated.

Will

 

[shadroch]

You might want to track the time of day you played.Some people find they play better when they are fresh.Your buy ins,heat,tips,penetration are important,as well.

 

[willhou]

What's the best way to keep track of my buy-ins? I do a lot of buying in at one table, ratholing chips, then buying in in cash again at another table later... THEN cashing it all in. So what do you think are the important ways to note what I'm doing?

 

[Kasi]

(What is a good spread? The last two trips, I tried bigger bets along the following lines: table min ($5-15) at negative and zero counts, with strategically timed trips to the bathroom, $25 at TC 1, $50 at 2, $75 at 3, $100 at 4. Is this optimal for DD using Hi-Lo? How about 6D?
...
am I forgetting anything that I'll one day wish I'd kept better track of?

Probably a real clear answer to yourself on the first 3 questions which sound more like about at least 21+ separate questions lol.

While all those things you list are great, consider that perhaps someday you may want to compare your actual results to expected results. But for that you need to know what's expected lol. And what's expected likely changes with a 5-100 spread vs a 15-100 spread let alone in a DD game vs a 6D game. Let alone what your roll is and what the rules of those games and pen might be, use of indexes or not etc. and whether "strategically" timed trips become more "consistently" timed trips and when lol.

So, eventually, you might end up with alot of different expectations for each of the different games you played and how you played them. You'll never have just one expectation for all different knids of games played and bet all different ways.

So, like for your last 2 trips, consider that the better time to maybe ask yourself, and not us, it's your money afterall, whether trying bigger bets along the lines you mentioned and whether they are optimal for this or that might be before you actually do it rather than after.

Like is it doing you any good now that if all you know is you won/lost a certain amount betting for so many hours, whether full tables or not, a bunch of different ways in perhaps at least a couple different games?

You have the right idea - just get real specific with how you bet your money in this game or that so you know what betting that way is supposed to produce.

 

[willhou]

I hear what you're saying about having a better idea of expected win rates... DD vs. 6D, $5 minimum vs. $15 minimum, of course those are going to have significantly different rates. So perhaps I should break my spreadsheet down, not by trip, but rather by parts of a trip: $10 minimum 6D here, $15 minimum DD there, etc.

So, like for your last 2 trips, consider that the better time to maybe ask yourself, and not us, it's your money afterall, whether trying bigger bets along the lines you mentioned and whether they are optimal for this or that might be before you actually do it rather than after.

I don't follow this. I thought about the size of my big bet in relation to the size of my bankroll, and made a decision ($100 big bets). I took a betting structure that I've seen a fair amount in books. Now, given that, I'm not exactly sure what you think I still need to ask myself... I've asked myself lots of stuff! I just want other informed opinions, too.

 

[Kasi]

I don't follow this. I thought about the size of my big bet in relation to the size of my bankroll, and made a decision ($100 big bets). I took a betting structure that I've seen a fair amount in books. Now, given that, I'm not exactly sure what you think I still need to ask myself... I've asked myself lots of stuff! I just want other informed opinions, too.

I'm just trying to say betting all games exactly the same way with the same spread and big bet will give rise to all kind of different win rates and ROR's.

Like maybe if you play-all and spread 1-10 that might be 5min to 50max. But if you wong-in the exact same game at +2 and never play less than that and only spread 1-2, maybe your min bet might be $100 and your max 200. With the same risk but different EV's per hour and different liklihoods of being so far ahead or behind after 100 hours kind of thing, etc.

Maybe you choose to wong-in at TC+3 and only flat-bet - what will your unit be?

In your terms, how much do you expect to win in an hour in your spreadsheet if it's $10min 6D vs $15 min DD? And with what risk? With what pen, rules etc?

More simply put, consider perhaps investing one big bet or so in a sim, even download the free one for a while and fool around with it until you maybe want more, to answer a lifetime of questions.

Always good to get opinions and mine is just one lol.

 

[EasyRhino]

If you were playing a $10 table, then you'd be looking at a 10x spread in a doubledeck game. That would qualify as fairly aggressive. If you have the bankroll to back it, it should get the money. It might also attract too much attention to support sessions over an hour (but it depends on the place, I guess). Hopefully penetration is good.

 

[willhou]

Like maybe if you play-all and spread 1-10 that might be 5min to 50max. But if you wong-in the exact same game at +2 and never play less than that and only spread 1-2, maybe your min bet might be $100 and your max 200. With the same risk but different EV's per hour and different liklihoods of being so far ahead or behind after 100 hours kind of thing, etc.

Right, but I can't put down an initial bet of $200 yet. It's a comfort thing. I'd have to settle for the lower win rate corresponding to a big bet of $100, because I'm simply not capable of doubling/splitting a $100 bet without getting the willies.

Where do I get these hands on the sims you're talking about? I've done a lot of my own math by hand, but if there are reputable pieces of software that let me play with scenarios more quickly and easily, I'd like to get recommendations.

Thanks!

 

[willhou]

If you were playing a $10 table, then you'd be looking at a 10x spread in a doubledeck game. That would qualify as fairly aggressive. If you have the bankroll to back it, it should get the money. It might also attract too much attention to support sessions over an hour (but it depends on the place, I guess). Hopefully penetration is good.

Thanks for the helpful comment - the games I play most often are $10 6D and $15 6D - so it's 1-10 or 1-6.67. A lot of the "double deck" nearest me is 6:5 and therefore useless, but I do play decent DD on my trips to Tunica or Biloxi. So is 10x (or 6.67x) a decent spread for 6D?

also, you write "if you have the bankroll to back it" - what do you think is the appropriate bankroll to back $100 big bets? different people have different ideas and I'd be very keen to hear yours.

 

[EasyRhino]

$10,000. But it depends on how ready you'd be to lose it (or lose half of it before resizing to $50 bets). If the bank roll is readily replenishable, then $100 big bets would be stodgy. If it's all the money you have in the world, then $100 big bets would be maniacal.

10x isn't really that great for a shoe game if you're playing all hands. You'd be gambling with an advantage, but not a large one, you'd still be largely at the whims of variance, much like a basic strategy player. Now... playing 1-10 in shoe games where you can void the vast majority of negative counts by backcounting, that would be great.

 

[moo321]

I would highly recommend getting a copy of "blackjack attack" by Schlesinger. It has a giant simulation where you can look up any game, rules, penetration, and betting spread, and be able to see how many units per hour you expect to win, variance, etc. My guess would be, with a 1-10 spread on an average double deck game you would be in the 2.5-3 units an hour range. You'd also be asking for trouble if you played more than an hour or so.

 

[willhou]

I would highly recommend getting a copy of "blackjack attack" by Schlesinger. It has a giant simulation where you can look up any game, rules, penetration, and betting spread, and be able to see how many units per hour you expect to win, variance, etc. My guess would be, with a 1-10 spread on an average double deck game you would be in the 2.5-3 units an hour range. You'd also be asking for trouble if you played more than an hour or so.

Thanks. I've had this recommended to me before, so I just zipped over to amazon and ordered it. I appreciate the advice.

 

[Kasi]

I'd have to settle for the lower win rate corresponding to a big bet of $100, because I'm simply not capable of doubling/splitting a $100 bet without getting the willies.

Where do I get these hands on the sims you're talking about? I've done a lot of my own math by hand, but if there are reputable pieces of software that let me play with scenarios more quickly and easily, I'd like to get recommendations.

Thanks!

Well you know you're gonna have to put that $100 out sometime even in the system you proposed lol. And I hope you have the willies to double, split as necessary then lol.

Anyway, there's a free sim called Powersim that could get you started perhaps. Later, if you stay serious, you'll probably want a sim from qfit's site.

Like then you at least have a better idea of what's expected out of how you propose to bet a certain game with certain assumptions. At least it'll force you to think in more detail about the game you propose playing - rules, pen, use of indexes etc. And see what changes with diff pen levels so if that dealer ever does suddenly cut only a half-deck off out of those six decks you'll know how to bet that pen too and keep your risk the same.

Like playing-all with a 10-hundred spread might have a higher win rate and lower ROR than play-all the same game with the 1-6.667 spread.

Anyway the overall idea is getting a handle on risk vs bankroll, EV vs stan deviation. But at least once you have a plan you like, and then bet it as best you can, at least you'll have a way of measuring your results over time versus what was expected to happen from that plan.

Keep asking those questions lol.