Weekend Warriors II

[jack.jackson]

No big deal.

We start off all playing the same game but then different counting systems are used.

Perhaps, when all is said and done, we can somehow combine all the little sims, into one big one

In Hi-lo, we're using a sim assuming exact-card TC estimation. Great for Rainman, I guess lol.

Ya, dont be surprised if our actual results, dont come out as expected.

Gatherer, who knows no indexes, is going to learn them while playing since the sim assumed it.

As soon as I get the hang of it, Ill run a seperate sim for gatherer, with no indices. Surely, for an advanced sim user, there must be a way to take all the individual sims and balance them into one.

Canceller, maybe Aslan, is doing KO, or KO preferred, or TKO, with indexes he says he never would use in real life and has adjusted his spread to 10-50 just because that's the hi-lo spread. If he wants to do 15-75, why not.

As long as everything is expressed in units, all thing will be equal. I think kc does his in units anyway, doesnt he. I dont see any problem with it, myself

Btw Canceller, I liked your sheet - I guess you converted the Powersim output to freg %'s since it just tells you number of hands played, and also converted the variance output to SD? If so, all good. I don't know KO and what the heck Psim was telling me about it in the first place. I just hope it's a good sim for your assumptions.

JJ has a CVDATA sim out there for which I have no idea what was assumed or when he spread to what. He can do more crazy stuff than I ever dreamed about - an L3 count with 200 indexes and side -counting god knows what. If he can make CVData do it, great. That's his game. He's, I think, starting this thread just becasue in the first one he discovered he had no way of knowing what his EV was in the first place.

:laugh: If things werent, difficult enough....here comes jj..:laugh: btw...its a l2 for the moment. Im gonna do my best, to get that ao2 sim over here. As a matter of fact, im gonna go work on it, right now.

It's all good becasue just creating a sim requires alot of effort in defining it.

Thats good to know. For a minute there, I thought it was just me.

But, hey, maybe we all have a real world game in mind we're curious about.
The Wise One has a DD game he recently started playing. Maybe JJ wants to use his crazy stuff. Maybe Gatherer wants to see how he does with no indexes as a start in some game nearby. Etc.

What would WW2 be w/o jj and his crazy stuff Im gonna, have a customized sim for exactly how I play. No worries here mate.

Maybe some would rather back-count or wong-out.

That fine as well. If it takes two or three different scoreboards, Ill find a way to compensate for all discrepencies. AKA...Improvisational alternatives.

I don't even know where the Wise One gets his canned sims from.

He probably got it from qfits website.....sage?

I guess I'm just trying to say, play to any sim you want. If we end up with a sim for each person, cool. Maybe keep it all to a common team roll like $10 or $20K. Or not. ROR's over 13% slightly discouraged. If you can't, don't know how, maybe someone here can help post that for you. Just specify what you want to do.

I plan on putting in some overtime as soon as I figure out, how to use these sims efficiently, and then your gonna wish I never had:devil:

I don't mind a team playing different games they want to at the skill level they have.

Same here! As well as different counts and the same game too.

Eventually, you just may end up in real-life without a team so get prepared.
Even I give ZG credit for that aspect of the big picture.

None of this, will be in vain. Even if we were to stop this second. Weve all learned at least something, and had fun while doing it...at least I did

Now that JJ has CVCX, which I thought he already had for some reason, he's got the real deal and I hereby appoint him God lol.

Now I got all three. CVBJ,CVCX&CVData. I would give up all 3 of these pruducts in a second, in exchange for your knowledge. You can have the most exspensive Guitar in the world, but if you dont how to play it. Trust me....its not going to sound good

Still parallel on the org chart with Capt - just a different title lmao.

Youve been promoted to Admiral Kasi, you Admirable one, you.

 

[sagefr0g]

I had a trial run last night ... and I must say with Hi-lo lite, Arnold's book was open for much of the experience. if I was in a real casino I'd be out quickly.

..... I think I have CVBJ setup wrong for for it's TC calculation, because it never said it was +1 in the first half of the deck unless the count was over +5 I'll try to post my settings later on and maybe someone can tell me what is wrong with my calculations. If I understand TC calculating, for a DD game I'm never going to have a divisor bigger then 2 (the 2 decks that we have to play at the start of the shoe) and it should decrease in size every hand.

.....

yeah it can be a bit tricky setting the tc calculation part up in CVBJ.
i doubt if i could help cause i don't use hi/lo lite i use just hi/lo and i'm just going by full deck estimation.
but i think your on the right track.
just maybe fool with it a bit sort of trial and error till you get it workin like you think it should. if all else fails try the instructions. lmao.
good luck. lol.

 

[sagefr0g]

Quote: Kasi
In Hi-lo, we're using a sim assuming exact-card TC estimation. Great for Rainman, I guess lol.

Quote: jj
Ya, dont be surprised if our actual results, dont come out as expected.

should i run another sim going by quarter deck (yuck), half deck (yuck) or full deck (yay!) estimation?

the exact-card TC estimation is just my imaginary count thing. lmao. see how we do against the greatest tc estimator in the world. Rainman. lmao.

 

[sagefr0g]

Quote: Kasi
Now that JJ has CVCX, which I thought he already had for some reason, he's got the real deal and I hereby appoint him God lol.

Quote: jj
Now I got all three. CVBJ,CVCX&CVData. I would give up all 3 of these pruducts in a second, in exchange for your knowledge. You can have the most exspensive Guitar in the world, but if you dont how to play it. Trust me....its not going to sound good

exactly. Kasi who knows all about it a'int even got a simulator. lol.
let's us do all the dog work, pay for the simulators and provide the juicy stuff like tc freq's, standard deviation, win rates ect.
but it's all good cause we're all learning.

 

[sagefr0g]

Quote: Kasi
I don't even know where the Wise One gets his canned sims from.

Quote: jj
He probably got it from qfits website.....sage?

cvcx it's got canned sims or you can create your own.

 

[sagefr0g]

Quote:Kasi
No big deal.
We start off all playing the same game but then different counting systems are used.

Quote: jj
Perhaps, when all is said and done, we can somehow combine all the little sims, into one big one

Quote: Kasi
But, hey, maybe we all have a real world game in mind we're curious about.
The Wise One has a DD game he recently started playing. Maybe JJ wants to use his crazy stuff. Maybe Gatherer wants to see how he does with no indexes as a start in some game nearby. Etc.

Quote: jj
What would WW2 be w/o jj and his crazy stuff Im gonna, have a customized sim for exactly how I play. No worries here mate.

Quote: Kasi
Maybe some would rather back-count or wong-out.

Quote: jj
That fine as well. If it takes two or three different scoreboards, Ill find a way to compensate for all discrepencies. AKA...Improvisational alternatives.

so does this mean i can use fuzzy counting, fuzzy betting, goal shooting and all the really stuff i use in real life?
hey captain jj and admiral Kasi.
i want to use my voodoo stuff. i don't wanta do this orthodox counting stuff. i want to do my count. i want to do my count! :cry::cry:
i want something done. i'm no little kid lol. i want something done!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5NyyC-UjBM

 

[Canceler]

Btw Canceller, I liked your sheet - I guess you converted the Powersim output to freg %'s since it just tells you number of hands played, and also converted the variance output to SD? If so, all good.

Yup, did both of those things. When I was done, all the statistics that PowerSim gave matched up with what your sheet said.

I just hope it's a good sim for your assumptions.

ETFan said somewhere that the next version of PowerSim will feature .str files that are easier to understand. I can hardly wait! But I followed the examples and the instructions quite closely, so I expect it's good.

Other random observations:

I don’t think gatherer needs a sim without indexes. I don’t expect gatherer to play without indexes, I expect him to use a cheat sheet, just like I have to for the BS and some indexes. I figure that’s one reason why we’re doing this, to learn this stuff.

Of course it’s easier to keep the count. There’s hardly any time to lose the count, these shoes fly by so fast!

Every time I get a soft hand, or a 9, that I would normally double, I wish like heck I could do it. I don’t think I’ll have any trouble remembering that I can do it when I go to the casino.

More thoughts on the Disturbing Suggestion That Everyone Do Their Own Thing: I still think everyone should play the same game under the same constraints. Sure, maybe I could do better with a 10-75 spread than with 10-50, but the constraint is a 1-5 spread. That’s perfectly fine with me. Of course I’m going to use KO, because that’s what I use. This does make things a little messy with regard to team statistics, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles. Which count system to use is not listed in the constraints, nor should it be.

Is anyone else finding this game hard to win at? So far I’m down more than a dollar per hand. But it’s still early. :joker:

 

[gatherer]

I'm playing with Indexes even though I don't know them .. I will learn them .. plus it's only 18 how hard can that be..

I learnt how to count from the Gamemaster website and then got blackbelt in black jack .. I find true count conversions easier then True Edge stuff Arnold talks about ..

my deck estimation skills leave a huge amount to be desired.

 

[sagefr0g]

.....
Every time I get a soft hand, or a 9, that I would normally double, I wish like heck I could do it. I don’t think I’ll have any trouble remembering that I can do it when I go to the casino.

that's what i was talkin bout:http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=94770&postcount=34
i just decided fouhgetabout it i'll be alright lol.

More thoughts on the Disturbing Suggestion That Everyone Do Their Own Thing: I still think everyone should play the same game under the same constraints. Sure, maybe I could do better with a 10-75 spread than with 10-50, but the constraint is a 1-5 spread. That’s perfectly fine with me. Of course I’m going to use KO, because that’s what I use. This does make things a little messy with regard to team statistics, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles. Which count system to use is not listed in the constraints, nor should it be.

i'm with you on the game constraints bet spreads, rules, pen and all. i just wanna be able to screw around a bit like i do in real life. sorta deal:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=94850&postcount=46

Is anyone else finding this game hard to win at? So far I’m down more than a dollar per hand. But it’s still early. :joker:

yes it's a bitch!

 

[jack.jackson]

530hands......0.00/evenlol



Expected ev ao2/full index/Ace Sidecount=13.97$ 100hands/per.hr

5.3hrx13.97=74.04$

+3>25$
+4>50$

500million/rounds

 

[k_c]

that's interesting k_c. (just as an aside i guess you know the sim i was talking about with Canceler doesn't even represent the wwII game.)
but anyway i can't follow your math but just taking what your saying with blind faith on the math part i think i still get your point.
to where i think your saying even say a trillion round sim (with out some internal mathematical engineering that deals with not covering all shuffles) can't represent all the possible shuffles?

Possible shuffles for 2 decks =
13897583953886915916997900322245344374849047779518415
9840824494092122906083362574050000000

You got the point. A non-humongousoidal (new word :grin sim can only barely scratch the surface of all of the possiblities. I don't know what that means statistically. For example, I think election results are predicted on a relatively small data sample so maybe blackjack can be too, but the sample data in an election would still be relatively much, much more, so it still makes me wonder.

 

[k_c]

interesting side note: I once wanted to write a program in Excel that would compute all possible exact combinations of an 8 deck shoe. The program worked, but it would have taken 10 years to finish on my computer so I gave up on it.

I know where you're coming from. My programs can compute overall EV in a matter of seconds! When I first started even the simplest probabilities would take forever. I think you could create a workable program in Excel but it wouldn't be very fast. I started with Visual Basic 6. Basically it's the same as VBA in Excel except that it's faster because it doesn't have to be compiled with Excel as the underlying program. Before I ever finished anything in VB6 I switched to C++, which was much faster. After that I just tried to improve my algorithms. I guess there's no end to it, though, because there's always something more that could be done.

 

[jack.jackson]

Ill have to wait for my CD version to come in, since canned sims cant be fully modified. But heres a real close approximation.

Hands...1007......Dollars....705$


NO ONE CAN BEAT ME. IM THE ROLLING STONE.

You guys should stick with poker.

 

[gatherer]

your right I can't beat you ...

but I can come close.. 447 hands ... $625 extra in my pockets

I'm using Hi-Lo and SageFrog's Bet Spread...

TC <=1 $10
TC = 2 $25
TC >= 3 $50

I've a attached an image of my charts..

now I just have to attempt to use the spreadsheet to record my results.. interesting according to the spreadsheet I'm outside 1 standard dev. on the good side

 

[sagefr0g]

up $328.00
369 hands
i'm the rebel of the group :devil::whip:

 

[gatherer]

we can't all be up... I'll hopefully get to play this weekend that should reverse my score.

 

[Canceler]

New war, same old story...

we can't all be up...

Nope, we're not all up. Even though my own personal RoR is only 3.21%, I have these visions of losing our whole $10,000 all by myself. Good thing the rest of you are going to keep me supplied with money! :laugh:

 

[jack.jackson]

Nothin to write home about:

Hands/3,011.....Dollars 462$

Well I got a little cocky and paid for it. Got a little mad and started steaming and paid for it, a little more:flame: Bottom line is im just about where I should be. But nowhere near what I could of been:cry:

Time to roll up the sleeves and take off the gloves! Round 2:whip:

 

[sagefr0g]

should i start counting now?

475 hands
up 600 dollars

 

[jack.jackson]

475 hands
up 600 dollars

Lol...you dog you....I mean frog you. i was gettin pretty stoked, when playin last nite and was just fallin apart at the seems. Right before my losing streak I was 1800+ and couldnt wait to display my 2000+ plus results. That was about the time the walls came tumblin down. Tried to hard. At least I can see your tailights.