Went from slots>roulette>BLACKJACK! Help please

[rajib87]

I'm 21 and new to the casino scene on weekends. I don't have a car and have been using the bus transportation I have here in flushing that gives you $40 in match play and $15 for food. You can't beat that. I guess I'm a recreational player but I'm enjoying spending a day there (10 hr total trip)coming home with double or more what I went with. My bankroll isn't more than $100 the last two times. Been there a total of 10+ times win/loss on slots and roulette. But played blackjack about 3 different times now and have come home with $200+ profit without basic strategy I just heard about (I thought it was just experience).
I guess you can say it was just luck or other players/dealers helping me at times. So my point is I like blackjack and want to depend less on luck and feel the thrill of winning because of skill. I know we can't win everytime but hey if I can get this so called edge over the house you got to be winning in the long run right?
Anyways I'm planning to go on friday so I just want to know what to do to begin the blackjack journey. Learn basic strategy first and implement it to see how that works? Should I practice counting cards now and try on friday? Just feeling a little overwhelmed by all the new terms and since I only go to FOXWOODS for the timebeing I want to know if there's anything I need to know when playing with the eight decks they use (worse than 6 decks?why though?can I still have an edge?) Alright thanks.

 

[Sonny]

Learn basic strategy first. You must be able to play perfectly before you can think about moving on. You should be able to play every hand automatically without having to think about any of your decisions. Once you can do that you will be ready to learn about the other aspects of BJ. There are lots of good resources and practice drills in the Free Counting Resources thread and the Frequently Asked Questions thread.

-Sonny-

 

[rajib87]

What's penetration mean? I tried doing a search under titles and "what does penetration mean" but no1 asked..mayb did the search wrong idk thx.

 

[Sonny]

Penetration refers to the percentage of cards dealt before the dealer reshuffles. The deeper they deal, the more profitable card counting can be. For a basic strategy player it is better if they shuffle more often (shallow penetration) because it will slow down the game and you will expect to lose less money. Check out the BJ Encyclopedia for more info:

http://www.bjrnet.com/member/bjapr/P.htm

-Sonny-

 

[ohbehave]

Take some time to learn terminology and basic strategy.

Research the different counting strategies available.

Download some good blackjack software so you can practice and run thousands of practice hands while practicing your count. You can't do this too much. It will teach you what can happen at the tables. Thats valuable so you won't be shocked when crazy things happen.

I started my quest 6 months ago and have just now found 'my game plan.'

You can't win with a maximum bet 2x your minimum. It takes at least 5x depending on your game. And that takes some guts to throw out that much money on each hand. So don't waste a lot of time flat-betting 'just to practice.' You can do that at home for free on the computer.

 

[shadroch]

Tournament BJ is very different from regular BJ. Whole other strategy is needed to succeed.

 

[rajib87]

I"m currently practicing basic strategy on bodog casino. i was wondering basic strategy reduces the edge of the house over the player to about .6% if played correctly. Why the hell would people go through all the work (as has been said takes years to perfect..?) just to get a players edge somewhere near 1% is it? Maybe someone can break down the math in laymen terms but it seems like that 1% is peanuts. You might as well do basic strategy and probably end with profits 99% of the time. It seems like you have so many options. If the first 2-3 hands you're getting high cards then its hot and bet more if the dealer is just hitting those blackjacks then just switch tables or sit it out and enjoy a drink? idk who am i to talk im a newbie but anyways let me get back to bodog and practice for an hour or so. if there's better sites please let me know

 

[callipygian]

My bankroll isn't more than $100 the last two times.

You will probably need a larger bankroll. For basic strategy, you'll want at least 20 minimum bets per session you play ($5 blackjack = $100, $15 blackjack = $300). For card counting, you'll want at least 100 maximum bets ($10 blackjack, 1:10 spread = $10,000).

Learn the concepts of expected value (EV) and variance. EV is what you expect to earn on average in the long run; variance is how close your short run sessions will be to the EV.

I know we can't win everytime but hey if I can get this so called edge over the house you got to be winning in the long run right?

In the long run, if you're just playing basic strategy, you can't win. You can win by a variety of methods, but the easiest is card counting. Keep in mind that variance for both is high - if you play fewer than 10,000 hands, it's quite probable to win just by playing basic strategy or lose even if you're card counting.

Another method is to work the match play coupons and freebies they're giving you. You didn't mention how much the trip costs, but if it's anything like the bus trips I know of (and forgive me for assuming you're riding an Asian-language tour bus because you're from Flushing), it's a real bargain because you're probably paying $30-$50 for the trip (and receiving $35 worth of vouchers in return - the $40 match plays are worth about $20 and the $15 for lunch). The buses are subsidized by the casino, anticipating that Asians will gamble a lot and gamble very poorly, which means that if you're a competent gambler you may have positive EV if you count food money as cash. You should try and scavenge as much as possible - if anyone on your bus doesn't want their coupons, snatch them up!

Note that basic strategy when you have a match play coupon is DIFFERENT than basic strategy without. See James Grosjean's Beyond Coupons (linked) for more information than you ever wanted to know about the topic.

 

[callipygian]

Maybe someone can break down the math in laymen terms but it seems like that 1% is peanuts.

1% per hand adds up, but you're right, it's not as glamorous as the movies, and you probably won't get to nail Kate Bosworth either.

1% x $10 /unit x 100 hands/hr x 300 hrs/year = $3,000 per year. Not exactly the stuff legends are made of, but not bad for a hobby (in which you usually SPEND money).

Professionals will aim for higher returns (1% to 2%), larger units ($25 to $100), more hands per hour (150 to 200), and, of course, more hours played.

 

[rajib87]

You didn't mention how much the trip costs, but if it's anything like the bus trips I know of (and forgive me for assuming you're riding an Asian-language tour bus because you're from Flushing), it's a real bargain because you're probably paying $30-$50 for the trip (and receiving $35 worth of vouchers in return - the $40 match plays are worth about $20 and the $15 for lunch). The buses are subsidized by the casino, anticipating that Asians will gamble a lot and gamble very poorly, which means that if you're a competent gambler you may have positive EV if you count food money as cash. You should try and scavenge as much as possible - if anyone on your bus doesn't want their coupons, snatch them up!

Beyond Coupons (linked) for more information than you ever wanted to know about the topic.

No you nailed it I am going on those chinese buses that play those morbid beyond retarded movies. I only pay $10 for the tickets and I get $40 for play $15 for buffet which I think can be used for play also.+ my parents introduced me to it (bored married couple needs something to do) so my mom gives me her tickets.

damn $3000 a year on basic strategy? well at least it'll be free food a day and if i get some reading done on the bus this can actually be productive. so well for my enthusiastic dreams of going in with $150 and coming out with $500+ in those 5 hours.

**** i wanted this to be a partime job:whip:

 

[callipygian]

I only pay $10 for the tickets and I get $40 for play $15 for buffet

Yeah, you've got a great deal. Learn how to play basic strategy, both with and without the match play coupons, and you're almost coming out ahead even without counting cards.

so well for my enthusiastic dreams of going in with $150 and coming out with $500+ in those 5 hours.

If you play straight basic strategy for 5 hours at 100 hands/hr (3-4 people per table), at $10/hand, you can expect to go broke 50% of the time, and ending with $500+ (winning 35+ bets) about 7% of the time.

The limiting factor here isn't that you're playing at a long-term loss: your EV over 5 hours is -$30 (which is cheaper than a movie on a per-hour basis). The limiting factor is your bankroll: the standard deviation of your play is $250 (that is, 68% of the time you will be between -$280 and +$220 and 95% of the time you will be between -$530 and +$470). You simply don't have the bankroll to ride out the inevitable bad swings.

i wanted this to be a partime job

It could be, just a very low paying one. If you consider a $15 lunch to be worth $15, then you're actually expecting to gain $25 per trip - just play out enough to cash your match plays, eat lunch, and then read for 4.5 hours, for a whopping total of $5/hr.

If you learn how to count cards (and don't get caught), you're looking at a $10-$15/hr Saturday job. Again, the problem is your bankroll - you'll need at least $2,000, probably closer to $5,000, to ride out the downswings.

Life lesson: There is no easy money to be made, either inside or outside the casino.

 

[EasyRhino]

I like the $3,000 estimate. If you were playing, and kind of half-knowing basic stategy (1% disadvantage), and played 5 hours every week, at a moderately uncrowded table (good luck at foxwoods) at $10, then that's about 260 hours.

But again, that's an estimate of your expected loss each year.

Learn perfect basic strategy and you can halve the expected loss.

Learn to gain an advantage by something like counting cards, and you can flip it to the plus side.

You're already getting a good deal with the bus and coupon scavenging, though. The biggest money winner is probably to just play the coupons and eat the free food. But you're stuck with the movies.

 

[shadroch]

I heard a story from a good friend that some folks were dumping their elderly parents on these buses. They'd ride up, catch the first bus back and make two or three roundtrips a day, collecting numereous MP coupons and buffet tix. It got to the point where they started hand stamping old folks to make sure they weren't riding the bus all day.

 

[rajib87]

1.Yeah, you've got a great deal. Learn how to play basic strategy, both with and without the match play coupons, and you're almost coming out ahead even without counting cards.

2.The limiting factor here isn't that you're playing at a long-term loss: your EV over 5 hours is -$30 (which is cheaper than a movie on a per-hour basis). The limiting factor is your bankroll: the standard deviation of your play is $250 (that is, 68% of the time you will be between -$280 and +$220 and 95% of the time you will be between -$530 and +$470). You simply don't have the bankroll to ride out the inevitable bad swings.

3.If you learn how to count cards (and don't get caught), you're looking at a $10-$15/hr Saturday job. Again, the problem is your bankroll - you'll need at least $2,000, probably closer to $5,000, to ride out the downswings.

Life lesson: There is no easy money to be made, either inside or outside the casino.

1. Shows why I ended up doubling the last 3 times

2. I took a statistics class fall semester that looks something like the 68-95-99 percent rule that was like the fundamental concept of the class. i dropped that class but how the hell did you figure all that? and what does it mean? I love when things can be explained clearly and with numbers like this:joker:

3. I can live with $10-15 on a saturday + a buffet to feed my weight gain/bodybuilding goals.

I feel you 100% on that life lesson though:eyepatch:

o yea 1 more thing from the variance/standard deviation formula shown above it seems like your either up +570 or down -$480 95% of the time. so we all been there when we have a feeling we just hit a high point. I think I'll use the best judgment I can and put away any greed or emotion rationally and just leave when I'm winning or think I'm at a very high point for the bankroll I entered with . So just leave even if it's within the first 10 mins of playing and learn to count cards or read a blackjack book until the way home. lol.. well friday I'm going so we'll c

 

[sagefr0g]

....
o yea 1 more thing from the variance/standard deviation formula shown above it seems like your either up +570 or down -$480 95% of the time. so we all been there when we have a feeling we just hit a high point. I think I'll use the best judgment I can and put away any greed or emotion rationally and just leave when I'm winning or think I'm at a very high point for the bankroll I entered with . So just leave even if it's within the first 10 mins of playing and learn to count cards or read a blackjack book until the way home. lol.. well friday I'm going so we'll c

i like your reasoning, especially the ten (or there abouts) minute thing. like callipygian was saying counting cards your expectation might be $10-$15/hour (maybe even less) over the long haul. you playing basic strategy, if you by luck beat that $10-$15/hour rate it might just be a good idea to call it a day and find a nice quite reading spot.
here's a consideration, pretty much voodoo.
wonging out, that is leaving a game in process when the count is negative and disadvantageous is an advantage technique. statistically speaking in the long run you could expect to wong out circa 70% of your play time.
you playing just basic strategy and if you should get so lucky as to get up a few units early on and then walking away, will likely be effectively properly wonging out a good proportion of the time and not even knowing it. but still it is an advantageous action.

 

[rajib87]

actually sounded like you were making fun of me for a second when you said you like my reasoning because it's so simple an idiot does it but hey for someone that is just learning basic strategy and has to make the best with around $200 bankroll and a few coupons.Question though,

Is counting cards just 2,3,4,5,6=+1 7,8,9=neutral 10,J,Q,K,A=-1

so say im playing basic strategy but for the hell of it i want to see whats the count can i start in the middle of a 'shoe' ( i believe is the word) or even if i start after a reshuffle do i just keep track and if it's positive then i have an advantage and should bet more. consider i play at foxwoods were there are 8 decks, i think you can only double on 10,11, you can surrender (not sure early or late since don't know the difference) and dealer has to stand on 17+.

 

[callipygian]

how the hell did you figure all that? and what does it mean?

Assuming that you play enough hands and that each hand is independent of the previous hand (neither of which should be taken lightly), your results will end up looking like a normal distribution, which is describable with the two numbers I mentioned before: expected value (the center of the curve), and variance (which is how "tall" or "flat" the curve is).

You can calculate your EV by simply taking the house edge (which is measured in units per hand) and multiplying it by the unit (usually the table minimum), then by the hands per hour, which will give you dollars per hour that you are expecting to win. That is the center of your distribution.

Your variance is a little trickier to measure, but a rough estimate of standard deviation (which is the square root of variance) is 1.15*sqrt(hands). Again, you can convert this into dollars per hour as above if you want.

You can estimate how likely something is to happen by measuring how many SD's it is from the EV. You will end up 1 SD or more away from average 17% of the time and 2 SD or more away from average 2.5% of the time. The number of SD's is called the z value and tables can be found for non-integral z values. So, for example, if you have an EV of -1 units/hr and an SD of 3 units/hr, there's a 17% chance you'll end up -4 units/hr or worse, a 17% chance you'll end up +2 units/hr or better, a 2.5% change you'll end up -7 units/hr or worse, a 2.5% chance you'll end up +5 units/hr or better, etc. If you end up +3 units/hr ahead, you're 1.3 SD's above EV, and that's about 85th percentile - 5 times out of 6 you will do worse than that, 1 time out of 6 you will do better. In the long run, you will always end up at 50th percentile (actual results approach EV when the number of trials goes to infinity).

Side note: Your actual results will be skewed towards the bad end, because once you go broke you can never climb out of the hole. That is, the probability of ending up even includes losing the first 10 hands and then winning the second 10 hands; if you have fewer than 10 units as a bankroll, the chances of you ending up broke are slightly greater and the chances of you ending up even are slightly lower.

I think I'll use the best judgment I can and put away any greed or emotion rationally and just leave when I'm winning or think I'm at a very high point for the bankroll I entered with . So just leave even if it's within the first 10 mins of playing

This is an absolute must for any gambler. On the winning end, you have people who win more than expected, and start (wrongly) thinking they're playing "with the casino's money" - they end up taking inappropriate chances and losing it all. On the losing end, you have people who lose more than expected, get mad, and then bet recklessly - they end up taking inappropriate chances and losing every last penny they can get their hands on.

If at any point you start to lose your cool - you're staying up too late and can't add quickly enough; you're playing too long and the numbers blend together; you get dealt 20 and dealer makes 21 three times in a row; the guy next to you has revolting B.O.; your significant other is really horny and wants it right away; whatever - you should step away from the table.

 

[rajib87]

ok i think all the help i can get was given today thx so much i'm going to see how this works just 1 last thing. I'm planning on rolling in with a $200 bankroll at a minimum bet table of $15. besides the coupons on this $200 at what profit$ should I stop considering this 68% principle? double?

 

[sagefr0g]

actually sounded like you were making fun of me for a second when you said you like my reasoning because it's so simple an idiot does it but hey for someone that is just learning basic strategy and has to make the best with around $200 bankroll and a few coupons.

not at all, sincerely if your just playing basic strategy it's a good idea. many would just sit and play on and on for the 4.5 hrs or so and maybe win a bunch but quite possibly lose a lot. some where around 70% or so of those 4.5 hrs would be spent playing at a disadvantage over a long series of 4.5hr sessions.

Question though,

Is counting cards just 2,3,4,5,6=+1 7,8,9=neutral 10,J,Q,K,A=-1

well, sort of. that would be for a balanced count a stepping stone to the true count. what you would have there would be what a hi/lo counter would call a running count. if you divide the running count by the number of decks left to deal, that's the true count. you make your betting decisions based upon that true count. optimal bets correlated to true counts and correlated to your bankroll and risk preference can be determined from blackjack simulation software.

so say im playing basic strategy but for the hell of it i want to see whats the count can i start in the middle of a 'shoe' ( i believe is the word) or even if i start after a reshuffle do i just keep track and if it's positive then i have an advantage and should bet more. consider i play at foxwoods were there are 8 decks, i think you can only double on 10,11, you can surrender (not sure early or late since don't know the difference) and dealer has to stand on 17+.

hopefully you can double on more than just 10 & 11. it's likely late surrender, early surrender is very rarely allowed.
i'm not sure if foxwoods allows mid-shoe entry. if it did, yes you could back count the shoe and then enter and play basic strategy say if the count was positive. just flat betting against a positive shoe where you entered in such a manner (called wonging in) would be more advantageous than playing from the beginning of a shoe. but until you learn about how to properly raise your bets according to the count you'd be best off just flat betting your minimun unit while playing basic strategy.

 

[rajib87]

hell yea you are allowed mid shoe entry.. so how do you backcount