What is the correct thing to do in this case?

[shinyam]

You're backcounting an eight deck game.... The shoe is now half finished, and the count is neutral. Next to you, a fresh shoe has started. Do you stick with the half-finished shoe, or backcount the new one?

To me, it would make more sense to stay with the half-finished shoe. Every small card that comes out is now worth twice as much as one from the eight deck shoe. However, it also means less rounds, since the shoe is half done.

What do you think?

 

[Thunder]

Stay at the one that you've already watched for 1/2 a shoe.

 

[21forme]

First, I wouldn't backcount 4 decks of an 8D shoe. If it doesn't go positive in the first deck or two, I'd be moving on.

Second, if I were in your situation, backcounting 4D, it would depend on playing conditions.

If 2D or more are cut off, and the table has 3 or more players, there aren't many hands left to play. Suppose it does go positive next round. You're going to play 2 or 3 rounds, then get up and leave?

 

[NightStalker]

8d with 4d passed appears more profitable to me

..

 

[blace]

First, I wouldn't backcount 4 decks of an 8D shoe. If it doesn't go positive in the first deck or two, I'd be moving on.

I don't understand this point. I would wait at least half or three quarters of the shoe since it's at the end of the shoe when your "advantage" (calculated throught true count) is more relevant.

Blace

 

[shinyam]

I don't understand this point. I would wait at least half or three quarters of the shoe since it's at the end of the shoe when your "advantage" (calculated throught true count) is more relevant.

Blace

I agree. If 8 small cards more than high ones come out the next hand, TC jumps to +2.

 

[21forme]

I don't understand this point. I would wait at least half or three quarters of the shoe since it's at the end of the shoe when your "advantage" (calculated throught true count) is more relevant.

Blace

Backcounting 4 shoes takes a long time. First, you're likely to be noticed doing this. It's a long time to stand around and watch the table. Second, if a shoe doesn't go positive fairly early, most likely it won't. Is it worth standing around that long for perhaps one or two +EV hands, or would your time be better spent scouting out another table or two?

 

[blackjack avenger]

It's Close

At a rc = 0 you would stay with the current shoe.

 

[kewljason]

If I was backcounting, which really isn't my thing, I wouldn't give up on the 8 deck shoe at the four deck point, assuming penetration was decent. With an 8 deck shoe, you know going in that any count achieved that is worthwhile will probably occur in in the second half of the shoe, more likely the very late stages. So why would you bail now that you have gotten to that point? Again, this is assuming the count is nuetral, not negative and penetration is decent.

I would probably count both tables. Not that hard to do. Even if you only get an estimate of the count at the second table. You probably would only have to count both for a hand or two and your decision most likely will be evident by that time.

 

[Sonny]

The penetration plays a big role here. As 21forme said, if they are cutting off 2 decks then you are only going to see 2 more decks played. Even if the count does turn positive, you aren’t going to play many hands at an advantage so your profit potential is limited at best. Deeper penetration and/or an uncrowded table can mitigate this somewhat, but a fresh shoe is often a better way to go. The fact that another table is immediately available also makes the “used” shoe less attractive since a better opportunity is staring you right in the face.

Schlesinger gives a good summary of this type of dilemma in Blackjack Attack. The best decision is not always intuitive. Would you rather finish the last 25% of your beer or have me bring you another bottle that has a 50% chance of being full? Or you could take kewljason's advice and drink them both! Cheers.

-Sonny-