What is your minimum/maximum bet?
- Thread starter BBjoe
- Start date
If I can avoid i wont play at the start of a shoe ;-) Usually I cant stand not playing though (I love blackjack) so I go in at minimum.
Basically I understand the math of it. For every +1 TC its 0.5% to you. The optimal bet is via the kelly criterion = ((bp) - q) / b, where b is odds paid, p is win probability and q is loose probability. Since b is 1:1 in blackjack the equation is just p-q. So whatever your % egde is, is what you should bet.
So for +10 TC = 10 * 0.5% = 5%
minus 0.5% house edge = 4.5%
So you should bet 4.5% of your bankroll - reguardless of how much you bring to the table.
When they have the edge you want to bet zero (or be them!).
If you can get away with it, do this:
$10 when its -0.5% or 0%
$20 when its 0.5%
$30 when its 1%
$40 when its 1.5%
$50 when its 2%
etc. this assumes a minimum non variance bankroll of $3,000. I wouldnt recommend this bet increase unless you had about $15,000.
I dont have $15,000 so accounting for variance etc. at a $10 table I try to do this:
Dont bet until at least
$10 -0.5% - 0%
$10 0 0.5%
$15 1% 1.5%
$20 2%
$25 2.5%
$30 3%.. so on and so on.... Ie $5 for every TC. So TC 10 = 50$
Even this is pushing it, minimun bank roll would be $1,000 and I would like at least $5,000 for max variance.
Basically I understand the math of it. For every +1 TC its 0.5% to you. The optimal bet is via the kelly criterion = ((bp) - q) / b, where b is odds paid, p is win probability and q is loose probability. Since b is 1:1 in blackjack the equation is just p-q. So whatever your % egde is, is what you should bet.
So for +10 TC = 10 * 0.5% = 5%
minus 0.5% house edge = 4.5%
So you should bet 4.5% of your bankroll - reguardless of how much you bring to the table.
When they have the edge you want to bet zero (or be them!).
If you can get away with it, do this:
$10 when its -0.5% or 0%
$20 when its 0.5%
$30 when its 1%
$40 when its 1.5%
$50 when its 2%
etc. this assumes a minimum non variance bankroll of $3,000. I wouldnt recommend this bet increase unless you had about $15,000.
I dont have $15,000 so accounting for variance etc. at a $10 table I try to do this:
Dont bet until at least
$10 -0.5% - 0%
$10 0 0.5%
$15 1% 1.5%
$20 2%
$25 2.5%
$30 3%.. so on and so on.... Ie $5 for every TC. So TC 10 = 50$
Even this is pushing it, minimun bank roll would be $1,000 and I would like at least $5,000 for max variance.
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That is a good rule of thumb but it may not be accurate enough to base your betting strategy on. The advantage in BJ does not move linearly so the advantages at different TCs will not be in such smooth increments. See my post below for more of an explanation:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=2845
For the best results you should use your exact advantage from a simulator to fine-tune your bets.
That formula is not quite applicable to blackjack. First of all, the odds paid (d) is not 1:1. Extra payouts for blackjacks, splits and doubles (and combinations of the two) will skew that. Secondly, the win/loss probability (p,q) is not 50/50. In blackjack it is closer to 43/49 with the other 8% being pushes. Also, that formula does not take variance into consideration. It assumes a constant positive expectation and frequent bankroll recalculations which is not practical in our game.
A simpler “tweaked” version for blackjack is:
Bet = (Bankroll * Advantage) / Variance
So with a 1% advantage and a $3,000 bankroll you would bet around:
(3,000 * 0.01) / 1.33 = $22
This still doesn’t completely work due to betting constraints that we impose on ourselves (the min/max of our bet spread), but more info can be found here:
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/kelly/kelly1.htm (Archive copy)
You can also read my rant below for some more “BJK“ fun:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=2632
Other than my mathematical nit-picking
, I agree with Dacium’s plan. When the house has the edge I bet as little as possible (or leave). As the count rises I bet as much as I can get away with within the limits of my bet spread. In general, the following bet spreads are considered “standard” for different games:
Single-deck = 1:4 spread
Double-deck = 1:6 or 1:8 spread
Six-deck = 1:12 spread (less is acceptable if you are Wonging in/out)
Eight-deck = Stay Away! Just kidding…sort of. This will require aggressive Wonging
The bets that you make between your min/max bet should be based on the Kelly formula.
-Sonny-
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=2845
For the best results you should use your exact advantage from a simulator to fine-tune your bets.
That formula is not quite applicable to blackjack. First of all, the odds paid (d) is not 1:1. Extra payouts for blackjacks, splits and doubles (and combinations of the two) will skew that. Secondly, the win/loss probability (p,q) is not 50/50. In blackjack it is closer to 43/49 with the other 8% being pushes. Also, that formula does not take variance into consideration. It assumes a constant positive expectation and frequent bankroll recalculations which is not practical in our game.
A simpler “tweaked” version for blackjack is:
Bet = (Bankroll * Advantage) / Variance
So with a 1% advantage and a $3,000 bankroll you would bet around:
(3,000 * 0.01) / 1.33 = $22
This still doesn’t completely work due to betting constraints that we impose on ourselves (the min/max of our bet spread), but more info can be found here:
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/kelly/kelly1.htm (Archive copy)
You can also read my rant below for some more “BJK“ fun:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=2632
Other than my mathematical nit-picking
, I agree with Dacium’s plan. When the house has the edge I bet as little as possible (or leave). As the count rises I bet as much as I can get away with within the limits of my bet spread. In general, the following bet spreads are considered “standard” for different games:Single-deck = 1:4 spread
Double-deck = 1:6 or 1:8 spread
Six-deck = 1:12 spread (less is acceptable if you are Wonging in/out)
Eight-deck = Stay Away! Just kidding…sort of. This will require aggressive Wonging
The bets that you make between your min/max bet should be based on the Kelly formula.
-Sonny-
The variance for a hand of BJ is around 1.33 units. Two hands would be about 1.83. Those numbers are from a simulator but you can get them from Blackjack Attack as well. I based my "bet spread" spreadsheet on Don's charts. I forget which chapter it was (near the beginning I think). I'll look it up when I get home.
-Sonny-
-Sonny-
Usually something around $5.00 minimum and up to $55.00 on high counts. Depends quite a bit on what sort of attention the pit is paying to the tables and if I care about being backed off or not. Much less heat generating is a top bet of $30.00 since the bigger chip is on bottom and that blocks the pit from seeing the green chip if they just glance casually.
Two greens with a red on top if I feel cocky and the count warrants it.
Two greens with a red on top if I feel cocky and the count warrants it.