when do you call a session quits?

[mezner]

I've been studying blackjack for a while and have started going to a nearby casino almost everyday for the last 2 weeks. I have a question though that no book really will answer...

When do you call it quits? I'm not talking about losing, but winning. I know you should never quit if your winning, but once you start losing (after previously winning), when do you call it a done session? Usually I come to the $5 table and play until i'm up to about $100 in chips (assuming i'm winning over time), I put $80 in my pocket and keep playing/coloring up if I have too. If I lose that $20, I never take any of the other money out of my pocket, therefor coming out with double what I came in with. Is that an ok strategy or should I really try and push for more? I don't stay long, so playing to win by the hour won't really help me.


Edit: I do NOT vary my bets, because I usually lose count anyways. I often play 2 hands though If I hit a decent win streak. I've made about $400 in the last 2 weeks playing $5 hands, coming into each session with only $50 (trying to build a bankroll from scratch with minimal risk of losing, which I know can't be avoided).

 

[tribute]

When do you call it quits? I'm not talking about losing, but winning. I know you should never quit if your winning, but once you start losing (after previously winning), when do you call it a done session?

The following article may offer you some help:


http://renzey.casinocitytimes.com/article/when-is-the-right-time-to-quit-gambling-for-the-day?-29468

 

[Thunder]

Get up when you're tired or hungry or feel the urge to go on tilt.

 

[mezner]

Get up when you're tired or hungry or feel the urge to go on tilt.

See that's the thing. I usually don't play long enough to feel tired or hungry. I've had a few times where I have $150 (started with $40) and then turned around and lost $50 of it, because I kept playing. Right now, that's actually a decent amount that I could have added to help start my bankroll, but I just don't know when to stop. Sometimes when I get up 2.5x I feel like If I keep playing ill lose it all, even if I was winning before.

 

[1357111317]

I've been studying blackjack for a while and have started going to a nearby casino almost everyday for the last 2 weeks. I have a question though that no book really will answer...

When do you call it quits? I'm not talking about losing, but winning. I know you should never quit if your winning, but once you start losing (after previously winning), when do you call it a done session? Usually I come to the $5 table and play until i'm up to about $100 in chips (assuming i'm winning over time), I put $80 in my pocket and keep playing/coloring up if I have too. If I lose that $20, I never take any of the other money out of my pocket, therefor coming out with double what I came in with. Is that an ok strategy or should I really try and push for more? I don't stay long, so playing to win by the hour won't really help me.


Edit: I do NOT vary my bets, because I usually lose count anyways. I often play 2 hands though If I hit a decent win streak. I've made about $400 in the last 2 weeks playing $5 hands, coming into each session with only $50 (trying to build a bankroll from scratch with minimal risk of losing, which I know can't be avoided).

If you aren't counting do this. If you win your first hand, leave. If you lose your first hand, leave. By doing this you will win the most in the long run.

 

[mezner]

I can only count if I'm the only one at the table (which i try and be) and then ill usually lose count after 9 hands or so. I only bring my bets up to $10 assuming I already have more than I came in with. I'm more of a casual player looking to make a few pennies over the long run. Its just something fun that I enjoy doing.

 

[DeTalores]

How do you expect to win over the long run without counting cards?
Playing basic strategy is a losing game.

 

[UK-21]

Most of the advice and comments I'm sure you'll get here will be very sound and based on long term maths - as you're a BS player, playing an -EV game long term the theoretical answer is to walk away before you're dealt a single hand!

But of course whilst this is sound advice from an AP persepective it doesn't take account of people's wish to play the game for entertainment purposes etc.

Bearing in mind playing BS is still a long term -EV game I would suggest:

Setting yourself a session loss-limit that you can afford. If you lose that amount walk away - the tables will still be there another day. If you're flat betting measure it in units.

For the other way, set a target for winnings and then walk away, knowing you've got some of the house's money in your pocket (although at that point it's become your money).

On the odd occasion that I've played BJ against a CSM, this is the plan I adopt, as it keeps me from falling for the temptation of being silly. My win limit is usually 50% of my starting amount, but it can be anything - obviously the higher it is, and the longer you play, the less chance you have of achieving it.

Don't give up on the counting though. Even though I count cards when I play BJ, I play for entertainment and the challenge and not with any real expectation of winning money over the longer term. I still have a loss/win limit although I know that as I play with a longer term advantage (although not a very big one) there is no mathematical logic behind this. Why? Well, walking away with more money than you arrived with, knowing you're doing something that reverses the HE on the game feels just
Great ! ! ! !

And before I get panned for stating this, I'm quite happy to admit that I am NOT an advantage player (although when I play BJ I endeavour to identify the times that I am playing with an advantage and bet accordingly).

Good cards and enjoy!

 

[sagefr0g]

I've been studying blackjack for a while and have started going to a nearby casino almost everyday for the last 2 weeks. I have a question though that no book really will answer...

When do you call it quits? I'm not talking about losing, but winning. I know you should never quit if your winning, but once you start losing (after previously winning), when do you call it a done session? Usually I come to the $5 table and play until i'm up to about $100 in chips (assuming i'm winning over time), I put $80 in my pocket and keep playing/coloring up if I have too. If I lose that $20, I never take any of the other money out of my pocket, therefor coming out with double what I came in with. Is that an ok strategy or should I really try and push for more? I don't stay long, so playing to win by the hour won't really help me.


Edit: I do NOT vary my bets, because I usually lose count anyways. I often play 2 hands though If I hit a decent win streak. I've made about $400 in the last 2 weeks playing $5 hands, coming into each session with only $50 (trying to build a bankroll from scratch with minimal risk of losing, which I know can't be avoided).

i guess you are at least using proper basic strategy, right?

well, what ever, your saying you don't vary your bets and if you try and count you lose the count.

you want to know when to leave when your winning.
let's add when your losing as well.

you may not be able to keep the count, hopefully you can play perfect basic strategy.

regardless, you can know what a perfect card counter can expect to make for a given number of hands, how much more a perfect card counter might make for that given number of hands above his expectation by however many standard deviations. you can know this stuff for the losing aspect as well.

so say you play the way you play, for some given number of hands.
you can then compare your results (as chance would have them turn out) against the likely range of results of a perfect card counter.

you could have some goal in mind, upper limit and lower limit that lines up with the sort of results the perfect card counter might have. so then say you fall some where within those sort of results, that upper limit and lower limit, perhaps you might decide to leave then.

or you could just know the expected results and standard deviation results for various given number of hands for a flat betting basic strategy player and make your quitting goal according to those numbers while considering how your results stack up against those figures.

these approachs won't make you a long term winner, because just playing basic strategy is going to have you end up a loser over time as the house advantage and the law of large numbers works more and more against you.
it would just give you some goal ranges to shoot for that might be fairly reasonable depending on your luck in the short term.

thing is, if your gonna do all that you might just want to try and become a more proficient card counter.

so anyway, the image below is just an example of a chart with statistics that you could compare your results against.
there could be an equal number of such charts for what ever game you are playing and how you imagine the card counter or flat bet player would bet against the game.
so likely you can't use this chart, it's just an example.
essentially to get a chart such as this you'd need a simulation for the game you play, then you could use the simulation's calculators to determine goal, range of results and such or a spread sheet like below such as Kasi's that can be found on this site. there are simulators you could buy or there are some free ones floating around.

it would just really give you something to go by, far as deciding when to quit.
like for example say you are playing the game in the image below.
say you played 32 hands and made between $40 and $86. well guess what you just made between $37 to $83 dollars more than the expectation of a perfect card counter for that many hands and as much as near one standard deviation of what such a player would have made. or maybe you lost $40 or $89 as the case may be for that many hands played.
does that sound like a good time to quit for such a particular case?

 

[mezner]

Thanks a ton for the info. Ill keep practicing counting. I've read almost all of "The Worlds Greatest Blackjack Book" and I will be getting "Beat The Dealer" from the library soon. I know the concepts of Advanced strategy with counting, its just I lose count, because I get distracted. I will admit that I cant count very fast, I average about 1:20 for a 2 deck, with perfect count about 80% of the time.

I guess I will keep playing for the joy right now, and practice counting both at home and at the casino to work on getting more focused.

 

[somtum]

Thanks a ton for the info. Ill keep practicing counting. I've read almost all of "The Worlds Greatest Blackjack Book" and I will be getting "Beat The Dealer" from the library soon. I know the concepts of Advanced strategy with counting, its just I lose count, because I get distracted. I will admit that I cant count very fast, I average about 1:20 for a 2 deck, with perfect count about 80% of the time.

I guess I will keep playing for the joy right now, and practice counting both at home and at the casino to work on getting more focused.

If you count in pairs at the table it's easier. Sometimes you don't even have to add or subtract from the running count because the values of the pair of cards cancel each other out. Also, it can be confusing to switch back and forth from positive to negative quickly. Just think M1 instead of minus 1 and 1 instead of plus 1. If your bilingual try using 1 language when your running count is positive and another language when your running count is negative.

 

[sagefr0g]

Thanks a ton for the info. Ill keep practicing counting. I've read almost all of "The Worlds Greatest Blackjack Book" and I will be getting "Beat The Dealer" from the library soon. I know the concepts of Advanced strategy with counting, its just I lose count, because I get distracted. I will admit that I cant count very fast, I average about 1:20 for a 2 deck, with perfect count about 80% of the time.

I guess I will keep playing for the joy right now, and practice counting both at home and at the casino to work on getting more focused.

so you have a lot of knowledge and your learning even more, that's cool.

and your right at the same speed per deck that i'm at after circa four years of practice, lol. that's really plenty fast enough for all but the fastest dealers when say your heads up.

and i have the same problem, the problem of losing the count. well, actually i can keep the count all right, i just hate doing it. the part i hate is retaining the RC in my memory during long stretches of negative counts. seems like such a waste of mental effort for such a large percentage of the time. i think over the long haul if you count a play all game you're gonna end up retaining a negative RC in your memory about 70% of the time.

one thing i do and maybe it would work for you as well, is if i'm playing against a six or more deck pack that has poor penetration, well if the RC tanks to the point where it looks as if it's very unlikely for the TC to ever get higher than TC=1 before the cut card is reached, then i'll just suspend counting at all and just play basic strategy for that particular pack, or if it's bad enough of a TC, maybe i'll take a potty break or completely leave the table. but i'll still pay attention to how the cards fall and if by chance a 'abnormal' number of low cards comes out then maybe i'll take a gamble and bet up one unit for a bit.
that's for six or higher decks, now if it's double deck i don't really mind counting and retaining the RC since they are a lot more volatile as far as how the count goes. but even double deck if the count tanks low enough i'll probably just stop counting and flat bet till the shuffle.
that way, as it normally turns out, i end up spending relatively little time trying to maintain the count and more time just playing basic strategy while having a bit of fun. (cautionary note, if your playing against a pack with especially good pen you probably want to count that pack more precisely, lol)

then maybe this is voodoo, like if i know i've played a bunch of hands for which i know the true count has been negative the vast majority of the time, well if i've had luck over those hands and i'm at or near the expectation of a perfect card counter for those number of hands, i might just quit for the day, sort of how i was trying to say in that previous post, lol.
this voodoo'ish aspect won't get you ahead long term but it might let you leave the casino a lot of times with a warm fuzzy feeling, lmao.

 

[bjcount]

one thing i do and maybe it would work for you as well, is if i'm playing against a six or more deck pack that has poor penetration, well if the RC tanks to the point where it looks as if it's very unlikely for the TC to ever get higher than TC=1 before the cut card is reached, then i'll just suspend counting at all and just play basic strategy for that particular pack,

Playing poor penetration?

You don't use neutral and negative indices?

I can't believe my eye's....

BJC

 

[sagefr0g]

Playing poor penetration?

You don't use neutral and negative indices?

I can't believe my eye's....

BJC

if i know the negative true count i do, but really i just use the I18 ones.

and if i don't know the precise true count, but i know (erhh think) it's negative, i might take a gamble and use like maybe hit 13vs2 or hit 12vs4,5,6 and hit 16vs10 .

but poor penetration, yeah, hey it's a facts of life thing in my neck of the woods, so i deal with it, but my game for the most part is just a 'jones' sort of thing anyway, no big deal, nothing life changing, lol.

 

[13Counter]

I never play blackjack unless I count. If you lose the count estimate the count and go from there (make sure you use caution, so its better to go negative than positive). I ran into the same situation when to stop. After every shoe I count how much money I won. If I lost more than half of what I previously won in the previous shoe. I find a new table. That's just me, but it keeps me from dumping back my chips to the casino.

 

[callipygian]

If you're not counting, that's fine. You'll lose money in the long run, but if you play good basic strategy you're paying very little for entertainment (approximately the cost of a movie).

You should quit whenever:

(1) You're unable to play your best game, whether it's due to alcohol, tiredness, or rage.

(2) You hit a pre-determined stop-loss (which often feeds the "rage" part of point #1).

(3) You hit a pre-determined stop-win. This last part is underappreciated - why would you quit when you're sufficiently ahead? The answer is because unless you're counting (and even sometimes while counting), it's psychologically better to walk away with a solid win than to potentially lose it (or a significant portion of it) and then kick yourself for not walking away earlier. Start the next session fresh and with confidence.

(4) The game changes and doesn't suit you any more.

 

[UK-21]

(3) You hit a pre-determined stop-win. This last part is underappreciated - why would you quit when you're sufficiently ahead? The answer is because unless you're counting (and even sometimes while counting), it's psychologically better to walk away with a solid win than to potentially lose it (or a significant portion of it) and then kick yourself for not walking away earlier. Start the next session fresh and with confidence.

I agree entirely. When counting, the maths theory is that if you're playing a +EV game why have a stop limit at all? Just keep on ploughing away . . . long term you should be winning. But, there's no way to mathematically quantify that warm glow that comes with being up a bunch as a result of applying one's counting strategy and beating the house at their own game.

 

[Kasi]

. But, there's no way to mathematically quantify that warm glow that comes with being up a bunch as a result of applying one's counting strategy and beating the house at their own game.

Even I can't mathematically quantify a "warm glow" or even wonder why, from simply the fact "one is up a bunch..." how someone even derives some sort of "warm glow" just because he may happen to be somewhere ahead of EV at some point in time and derive some sort of "glow" from it as if his skill had anything whatsoever to do with his luck.

Hopefully, one would derive the same "glow" from being down at the same point in time just merely knowing one is playing at the same advantage over the House.

No big deal lol.

 

[UK-21]

. . . how someone even derives some sort of "warm glow" just because he may happen to be somewhere ahead of EV at some point in time and derive some sort of "glow" from it as if his skill had anything whatsoever to do with his luck.

So you don't get a buzz out of winning? It's all just business, right? Putting in the time at the tables and taking your two units an hour (or whatever) over the longer term? If you play BJ purely to generate an income, I think you'd be better off investing your bankroll into something else with less risk and a higher return and devoting the time to something else. If you play because you do get some enjoyment from it, I don't understand why you've made this statement.

Although I'm sure you've cracked the maths, what you've responded with suggests (to me at least) you've still got a lot to learn about people and their behaviours. You're not a Vulcan by any chance? :grin: