When to take Even Money?
- Thread starter celadore
- Start date
Paper nonesense can be real life sense
The pivot point in a shoe for insurance/even money is recognized as +3 and of course it is +3 at the time you must make your decision on insurance and not whatever the count was when you made your bet decision.
Nic-picking the math there is no arguement with celadore. Your under that pivot point and you do not take insurance, but on an overbet or not overbetting but in getting away with a huge spread, there are other considerations and the math is closer than we are giving it credit for in this case.
A little math:
We take insurance when there is a .3333 chance or 1/3 chance of the dealer having a 10 card in the hole.
Off the top of the shoe there is a .3077 chance of that 10 being there.
In our example of a TC of +2 we are quite a bit closer (not there) to that pivot point with a .3269. Yes we are nicpicking at .0064 and as someone who often gets away with a spread of $25 to 2X$500, in this situation I take even money. I feel bad if the dealer does not have blackjack but know I would feel much worse should I have not insured my hand and landed up with a max bet push.
ihate17
The pivot point in a shoe for insurance/even money is recognized as +3 and of course it is +3 at the time you must make your decision on insurance and not whatever the count was when you made your bet decision.
Nic-picking the math there is no arguement with celadore. Your under that pivot point and you do not take insurance, but on an overbet or not overbetting but in getting away with a huge spread, there are other considerations and the math is closer than we are giving it credit for in this case.
A little math:
We take insurance when there is a .3333 chance or 1/3 chance of the dealer having a 10 card in the hole.
Off the top of the shoe there is a .3077 chance of that 10 being there.
In our example of a TC of +2 we are quite a bit closer (not there) to that pivot point with a .3269. Yes we are nicpicking at .0064 and as someone who often gets away with a spread of $25 to 2X$500, in this situation I take even money. I feel bad if the dealer does not have blackjack but know I would feel much worse should I have not insured my hand and landed up with a max bet push.
ihate17
A while ago I was playing a face-up (?) pitch game, I had a much bigger bet out than the count called for, and the count was NEARLY good enough for insurance. And I was dealt a natural and the dealer got an ace.
So when the dealer asked me for even money, I insured for less.
The dealer had no idea how to proceed.
So when the dealer asked me for even money, I insured for less.
The dealer had no idea how to proceed.
I think many people have misunderstood what I was after.
According to my OP, taking even money and taking insurance is the same thing - it has the same net result. Someone was kind enough to do the math for us to prove this in a post above. I have always agreed with this fact.
I take even money over insurance option just to save time.
According to a previous post above - I have decided that the correct time to take even money is at TC +1. The correct time to take insurance is at TC +3. This is an additional rule I am now following from what I originally used to play.
According to my OP, taking even money and taking insurance is the same thing - it has the same net result. Someone was kind enough to do the math for us to prove this in a post above. I have always agreed with this fact.
I take even money over insurance option just to save time.
According to a previous post above - I have decided that the correct time to take even money is at TC +1. The correct time to take insurance is at TC +3. This is an additional rule I am now following from what I originally used to play.
Thunder said:
Hmm, now you got me thinking about another AP play. How about competing with the casino for the ploppie's money. When you see a ploppy putting down an insurance bet in a negative count or whatever. Offer him/her more than 2-1 on their money 
The problem with these kinds of plays is that you are basically stealing action from the casino and will attract unnecessary heat.:flame:
Thunder said:
Hmm, now you got me thinking about another AP play. How about competing with the casino for the ploppie's money. When you see a ploppy putting down an insurance bet in a negative count or whatever. Offer him/her more than 2-1 on their money
). Seems a little too suspicious to me though.Lol
Like the casino would permit you to take the ploppy's money !
Oh yeah ! They will love that action ! <sarcasm>
Beside, what would you do? Offer them 2.1 to one?
-- and if they win on a $25 Insurance bet pay them $57.50 ?
More than 2.1 or 2.2 to 1 -- you'll give up your edge in a hurry; besides your edge will be pretty damn small in almost all cases.
Practically worthless.
DO THE MATH !
Like the casino would permit you to take the ploppy's money !
Oh yeah ! They will love that action ! <sarcasm>
Beside, what would you do? Offer them 2.1 to one?
-- and if they win on a $25 Insurance bet pay them $57.50 ?
More than 2.1 or 2.2 to 1 -- you'll give up your edge in a hurry; besides your edge will be pretty damn small in almost all cases.
Practically worthless.
DO THE MATH !
Thunder said:
Hmm, now you got me thinking about another AP play. How about competing with the casino for the ploppie's money. When you see a ploppy putting down an insurance bet in a negative count or whatever. Offer him/her more than 2-1 on their money
Ignorance of dealers
Rhino
It is just another example of how little dealers know about the game they deal. With most dealers, if you just say even money and insurance (for the full amount) are the same thing, they need a pad, pencil and 20 minutes to figure it out before they agree with you.
In your case any less than idiot dealer would just push your blackjack and pay you 2-1 for whatever amount you bet on insurance. Of course expecting a less than idiot dealer may be expecting too much.
ihate17
Rhino
It is just another example of how little dealers know about the game they deal. With most dealers, if you just say even money and insurance (for the full amount) are the same thing, they need a pad, pencil and 20 minutes to figure it out before they agree with you.
In your case any less than idiot dealer would just push your blackjack and pay you 2-1 for whatever amount you bet on insurance. Of course expecting a less than idiot dealer may be expecting too much.
ihate17
I have found that dealers just coming off a spanish 21 table, mispay often at BJ tables especially at the end of the early AM shift when there eyes are closing in the standing upright position. A few months back we had a dealer fall asleep with the card in her hand as she was dealing out the first cards in the round.
It was absolutely hysterical, then the pit manager came over to see why the entire table was crying from laughing so hard.
:laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:
BJC
It was absolutely hysterical, then the pit manager came over to see why the entire table was crying from laughing so hard.
:laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:
BJC
not sure what your talkin bout gofnut lol.
all i do is go by I18, erhh, uhmm for multi deck stuff, are you maybe going by single desk?
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/tcindex/i18index.htm (Archive copy)
all i do is go by I18, erhh, uhmm for multi deck stuff, are you maybe going by single desk?
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/tcindex/i18index.htm (Archive copy)
sagefr0g said:
not sure what your talkin bout gofnut lol.
all i do is go by I18, erhh, uhmm for multi deck stuff, are you maybe going by single desk?
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/tcindex/i18index.htm (Archive copy)
all i do is go by I18, erhh, uhmm for multi deck stuff, are you maybe going by single desk?
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/tcindex/i18index.htm (Archive copy)