Blackjack can be like a drug to some people. Once you get a taste, you need to get more. The more you take, the more you need. Just when you think you’ve reached the peak you find so much more to experience. The only difference is that a great BJ player is addicted to earning money, not snorting it.
There’s certainly nothing wrong with keeping it simple. You may even get lucky and win money for a little while. But in order to give yourself the best chances of being a long-term winner you will need to learn much more than the basics. Counting is the easy part, being successful is the hard part! Just knowing how to count cards is no guarantee of success. In fact, it doesn’t even mean that you have an advantage over the casino! One reason that people get so caught up in the mathematical details is because they want to increase their chances of being successful. In short, they want to earn more money and they want to earn it sooner.
There are dozens of factors that can turn a good counter into a losing player: A weak system, substandard bet ramp, insufficient bankroll, feeble playing strategies and bad games just to name a few.
WEAK SYSTEMS
Using the Ace-Five system can give you an advantage, but the advantage is tiny compared to the variance. It might take you years to approach the long run and you would need a huge bankroll in order to have a reasonable chance of lasting that long. Simplified systems like Ace-Five, OPP and Speed Count can definitely give the player an advantage, but that advantage will often not be realized though actual play. A more sophisticated system will increase your advantage and get you to the long run sooner, but the variance will still be pretty steep so a motivated player will want to increase his chances further by studying optimal betting, risk, and variance.
OPTIMAL BETTING
Most new players are surprised by how little they can expect to win playing BJ. Often times it is because they are not using a strong betting ramp. Optimizing your bet ramp is an easy way to increase your EV while maintaining your level of risk. Tricks like knowing when to play two hands (and how much to bet on each) and when to Wong in/out can give your EV a huge boost and get you to the long run much quicker. Even tweaking your bet ramp a little (try $15 at +3 instead of $10) can increase your profits nicely, and with no extra effort at the tables! In order to reach this level you will want to research and understand proportional betting schemes as well as the formulas for EV and SD.
BANKROLL REQUIREMENTS
So now you know how to play, how to count cards, how to bet and you’ve practiced until you are lightning-fast. You’re ready to go, right? Well, maybe, but you really don’t know what to expect yet.
You’ll want to know what sort of standard deviations you may face during your trip. What sort of fluctuations should you expect, on average, per hour? What’s the most that you would possibly expect to lose on your worst losing streak? What sort of winning streaks can you dream about? How often will they happen? How much money should you bring with you? You’ll want to bring enough cash so that you won’t tap out prematurely (or in the middle of a hot shoe!). You’ll also want to know how to adjust your betting ramp if you have a big win or loss.
And that’s just the short-term variance! You’ll probably be curious about how long it will take to approach the holy “long run” that everyone keeps talking about. You’ll also want to know what your chances of getting there without going broke are. Now you’ve got some more formulas to learn, namely RoR (both global and trip) and N0.
PLAYING STRATEGY
Is your playing strategy aggressive enough? Is it too aggressive? Are you Wonging at all? Is it at optimal times? Do you need to use any cover plays at this casino? If so, what are they and how much are they costing you? If not, are you playing as aggressively as you can? Many players give up too much EV to useless cover plays, tipping, and playing too many negative counts. All the math and formulas are useless if you don’t diligently follow your strategy.
BAD GAMES
So you’ve learned everything so far. You’ve read all the books, studied all the websites and painstakingly made your plan to dominate the casinos. You grab some cash and drive straight to the nearest casino to earn your fortune. You are surprised to find a double-deck table with some open seats (fewer decks are better, right?). You sit down, buy your chips and go to work. An hour later you take a break to see how you’re doing.
“What?! I’ve lost $500?! How can that be? My hourly SD is only $200! What happened? I did everything right and all of the formulas told me that this is impossible! I must have been cheated!”
You go back to the table and watch the dealer closely. Everything seems fine, except now you notice a few things that you didn’t before. The dealer is only dealing 50% of the cards and there’s a little sign that says “Blackjacks pay 6:5” on the table.
“That’s bulls$^#!” you scream. “I’m going to play a shoe game.”
All of the $5 tables are packed with players. Even if you got a seat you wouldn’t be able to play enough hands per hour to make it worthwhile. The only tables available are the $15 tables, but that is above your minimum bet and would shoot your RoR through the roof! You’re going to have to do some creative backcounting.
After an hour of walking around like a psychotic stalker you stumble upon a +2 TC. You throw out a 2-unit bet and immediately bust. The count raises to +3 so you “steam” up to a 4-unit bet and lose a double down when the dealer makes a great hand after hitting his soft 17. The count is now a +5 and your max bet is on the felt. You find yet another stiff against the dealer’s ten.
“Surrender.” You sigh.
The dealer, who always says “over” when he busts to avoid the arduous task of counting to twenty four, looks at you like you’re an idiot.
“Umm sir, do you want to hit or stand?” he mumbles.
“I want to surrender.” You announce confidently.
“You can’t do that here. You have to hit or stand.”
Despite being completely appalled, you make the correct play and hit. You immediately bust. You feel it coming again…
“This is bull s$^#!”
You storm out of the casino and drive back home with a much lighter wallet. You now have several choices:
1) Never return to that stupid, crappy casino.
2) Go to all of the websites and complain about how BJ is dead and it can’t be beaten.
3) Take it easy and play for comps/coupons (still +EV).
4) Adjust your betting and playing strategy to suit the conditions.
5) Learn more advanced techniques to beat the game.
6) Travel to better games or conditions.
Option #6 is the hardest and most expensive. Option #1 is the easiest, but you will have wasted a lot of time and effort to learn something that you’re never going to use again. Option #2 is almost as easy (and pretty popular!) but you’re just wasting even more time. Option #3 is very simple and can still be lots of fun. All other options will require a lot more studying.
-Sonny-
