Why Split 9's?
- Thread starter Texan4Ever
- Start date
Simulation of www.bjsim.com
Showing an edge of 4-10% for Splitting 9 on 8. You can take a look at many 1,000,000 rounds simulation or play small simulation yourself to evaluate each staratetgy. You can choose When to Split 9 and when not.
(Dead link: http://www.bjsim.com/sample/BSVGS121.5N3NMD2.htm)
Showing an edge of 4-10% for Splitting 9 on 8. You can take a look at many 1,000,000 rounds simulation or play small simulation yourself to evaluate each staratetgy. You can choose When to Split 9 and when not.
(Dead link: http://www.bjsim.com/sample/BSVGS121.5N3NMD2.htm)
Can't resist
I was going to let this one go since Qfit already responded to it, but there are just too many issues to ignore.
That’s a HUGE range! An answer that vague is not helpful at all. The advantage for standing on 9,9 vs. 8 (2D S17 DAS) is about 8.56%. So is splitting really better than standing if we only know that it is somewhere between 4% and 10%? It is impossible to make the right decision with that information.
The results on your website show an advantage of 11.6% so I’m not sure where the 4-10% came from. Maybe that was the result of the individual sims before you averaged them together?
As numerous people have said before, 1M rounds is not nearly enough to get accurate numbers. According to your website you only played 2,726 hands of 9,9 vs. 8 to get your EV estimate. Play another 2k hands and see how different the results are. Then try it again. Do you understand why those results are completely unreliable?
The numbers you give are not correct. If we look at the true EV (Archive copy) of that play we can see that it is around 22.1%, not 4-10% (or 11.6%).
So there are obviously problems with your program and your methodology. You really need to address these issues if you want to make your software practical.
-Sonny-
I was going to let this one go since Qfit already responded to it, but there are just too many issues to ignore.
That’s a HUGE range! An answer that vague is not helpful at all. The advantage for standing on 9,9 vs. 8 (2D S17 DAS) is about 8.56%. So is splitting really better than standing if we only know that it is somewhere between 4% and 10%? It is impossible to make the right decision with that information.
The results on your website show an advantage of 11.6% so I’m not sure where the 4-10% came from. Maybe that was the result of the individual sims before you averaged them together?
As numerous people have said before, 1M rounds is not nearly enough to get accurate numbers. According to your website you only played 2,726 hands of 9,9 vs. 8 to get your EV estimate. Play another 2k hands and see how different the results are. Then try it again. Do you understand why those results are completely unreliable?
The numbers you give are not correct. If we look at the true EV (Archive copy) of that play we can see that it is around 22.1%, not 4-10% (or 11.6%).
So there are obviously problems with your program and your methodology. You really need to address these issues if you want to make your software practical.
-Sonny-
Leaving aside the issue of the insufficient sample, and the question of why anyone would want to use a simulation to approximate what can be quickly and exactly calculated by combinatorial analysis, there are two problems apparent from the information provided on that bjsim page -
The % edge for splits and doubles is being calculated as function of the total amount bet, rather than just the initial bets.
Pushes are apparently being excluded from the calculation.
The % edge for splits and doubles is being calculated as function of the total amount bet, rather than just the initial bets.
Pushes are apparently being excluded from the calculation.
That's why I created actual numbers in my book instead of using the convention that ignores how BJ is actually played. (Sorry no link as I get criticized for links to the correct tables.Simulation
Thanks I agree. Bjsim may not be the ideal tool to get precises odds for advantage player. However it is fun simulation and show the average player what can happens over so many rounds. I calculated the EV based on total bets, Are you recommending to use it based on initial bet.
I will fix the EV on Split and double to be based on the initial bets.
Thanks I agree. Bjsim may not be the ideal tool to get precises odds for advantage player. However it is fun simulation and show the average player what can happens over so many rounds. I calculated the EV based on total bets, Are you recommending to use it based on initial bet.
I will fix the EV on Split and double to be based on the initial bets.
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You need to think in terms of rounds, rather than hands. However many splits and/or doubles take place (0, 1, or more), the net result is an amount won/lost by the player for that round, which needs to be expressed as a percentage of the initial bet. Then you can determine whether splitting/doubling is more profitable than hitting/standing.
And you can't ignore pushes.
And you can't ignore pushes.
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Let me put in my 2 cents worth here if I may.
Wow, this is high brow stuff here. Really outside my depth. What with sims and combinatorial analysis, etc.
From the figures above I make the average gain from splitting 9's is 25.4%.
Permit me to chose an arbitary figuire of pair of 9's occuring 1 in 200. ( Smarter guys than me like Sonny would no doubt have the actual correct number).
Then multiplying this out 25.4/200 is 0.13%. So not splitting a pair of 9's would increase the HA by 0.13% I think this is the answer the original poster is looking for.
Wow, this is high brow stuff here. Really outside my depth. What with sims and combinatorial analysis, etc.
From the figures above I make the average gain from splitting 9's is 25.4%.
Permit me to chose an arbitary figuire of pair of 9's occuring 1 in 200. ( Smarter guys than me like Sonny would no doubt have the actual correct number).
Then multiplying this out 25.4/200 is 0.13%. So not splitting a pair of 9's would increase the HA by 0.13% I think this is the answer the original poster is looking for.