That's what standard deviation is for... Here is a sample standard deviation for a bankroll under given conditions (no I did not just type all this stuff in less then two minutes lol, copied it from an earlier message)
Conditions
Count system: Hi-Lo, Ill18 and Fab4
Decks: 2
Rules: S17
Spread: 20
Hands per Hour: 150 (the place is a ghost town)
RoR: 2%
Penetration: 36 cards cut off
Bankroll: $10,000
(check marked two handed play and simplified betting)
(should mention one person can play two hands, and at table minimum if they want as well, bet limits on these two deckers is only $5-$100 unfortunately)
Results
$/HR: 86.72
RoR: 2%
STD dev per hand: 10.9
STD dev per hour: 133.521
...............Bet Strategy.................
....True Count............Optimal Bet....
.......<=0.........................2x$5......
..........1.........................2x$10.....
..........2.........................2x$25.....
.........3,4........................2x$50.....
..........5.........................2x$75.....
.......>=6........................2x$100.....
I figured out three STD deviations under various time frames:
Approx. One hour of play (150 hands)
2% ($12,089 - $11,419)
13.5% ($11,419 - $10,754)
34% ($10,754 - $10,087)
34% ($10,087 - $9,414)
13.5% ($9,414 - $8,749)
2% ($8,749 - $8,079)
Approx. Two hours of play (300 hands)
2% ($13,006 - $12,062)
13.5% ($12,062 - $11,118)
34% ($11,118 - $10,174)
34% ($10,174 - $9,230)
13.5% ($9,230 - $8,286)
2% ($8,286 - $7,342)
Approx. Ten hours of play (1500 hands)
2% ($17,200 - $15,090 )
13.5% ($15,090 - $12,980)
34% ($12,980 - $10,870 )
34% ($10,870 - $8,760 )
13.5% ($8,760 - $6,650 )
2% ($6,650 - $4,540 )
Approx. 30 hours of play (4500 hands)
2% ($23,578 - $19,922)
13.5% ($19,922 - $16,266 )
34% ($16,266 - $12,610 )
34% ($12,610 - $8,954 )
13.5% ($8,954 - $5,298 )
2% ($5,298 - $1,642 )
Approx. 60 hours of play (9000 hands)
2% ($30,730 - $25,560)
13.5%($25,560 - $20,390)
34% ($20,390 - $15,220)
34% ($15,220 - $10,050)
13.5% ($10,050 - $4,880)
2% ($4,880 - $-290)
Approx. 100 hours of play (15,000 hands)
2% ($38,725 - $32,050)
13.5%($32,050 - $25,375)
34% ($25,375 - $18,700)
34% ($18,700 - $12,025)
13.5%($12,025 - $5,350)
2% ($5,350 - $-1,325)
Approx. 250 hours of play (37,500 hands)
2% ($63,412 - $52,858)
13.5%($52,858 - $42,304)
34% ($42,304 - $31,750)
34% ($31,750 - $21,196)
13.5% ($21,196 - $10,642)
2% ($10,642 - $88)
Within one standard deviation=anything within the middle two 34% ranges
Within two standard deviations= anything within either of the 13.5% ranges
Within three standard deviations= anything within the outermost (2%ers)
Within four standard deviations=Anything greater or less then what's shown (the final 1%)
So, in conclusion, if you fall in the 4% outer edges or further, father luck really really hates:whip: you or really really loves you:devil:, or you're doing something wrong. If you keep falling in the negative 2% range (like 2 or 3 hours in a row) you're probably doing something really wrong