wrong play
- Thread starter BLUE
- Start date
I'm not experienced in tournaments either but I would say you played it correctly.
Assuming if you get the same result or better than your opponent (you both win, lose, or tie, you win and he ties/loses, or you tie and he loses) then you win the tournament. You have to figure out what your probabilities are of each of those situations if you hit or stand.
Stand is easier. The dealer will bust about 42% of the time and you will both win and you will win the tourney. You will also win if you stand and the dealer pulls a 21 because you both lose. I don't know exactly but I'll say this will happen about 10% of the time. So let's put your win/loss at 52/48 if you stand.
Hitting is a little more complicated. I estimate taking one card your win/loss will be about 35/41 with 23% of the time you draw an A, 2, or 3 and have to make another decision. But each of those decisions will offer you either a 52/48 chance if you stand or a worst than 35/41 chance if you hit. Therefore you can't do better than a 52/48 chance if you begin the hand by hitting your 13 v 6. So you should stand and take the coin flip.
Assuming if you get the same result or better than your opponent (you both win, lose, or tie, you win and he ties/loses, or you tie and he loses) then you win the tournament. You have to figure out what your probabilities are of each of those situations if you hit or stand.
Stand is easier. The dealer will bust about 42% of the time and you will both win and you will win the tourney. You will also win if you stand and the dealer pulls a 21 because you both lose. I don't know exactly but I'll say this will happen about 10% of the time. So let's put your win/loss at 52/48 if you stand.
Hitting is a little more complicated. I estimate taking one card your win/loss will be about 35/41 with 23% of the time you draw an A, 2, or 3 and have to make another decision. But each of those decisions will offer you either a 52/48 chance if you stand or a worst than 35/41 chance if you hit. Therefore you can't do better than a 52/48 chance if you begin the hand by hitting your 13 v 6. So you should stand and take the coin flip.
First a point about your bet. You don't say specifically what you bet, but it sounds like you may have gone all-in as well. That's the first mistake. Hold back a chip or two and you win if the dealer beats you both.
Now, I'll make some assumptions that complete your scenario.
We'll assume that the dealer stands on soft 17, and that you lead $10,300 to your opponent's $10,000. He is on the button and went all-in. We'll assume you matched his bet and placed a bet of $10,000 as well, holding back $300 unbet chips.
Now, the dealer has a 6 up and your opponent has a 20 while you have a 12. You should stand with your 12 here. You win if the dealer busts or makes 21. Standing gives you a 52% chance of victory.
If you hit once instead and stand on whatever total you make, your chances drop to roughly 50%. Close, but not as good.
If the dealer hits soft 17 in your game, the strategy remains the same but your chances improve to 55% for standing or 51% for hitting once.
To answer your question: Should you have stood with 13? Yes, and you should have stood with 12 as well.
Now, I'll make some assumptions that complete your scenario.
We'll assume that the dealer stands on soft 17, and that you lead $10,300 to your opponent's $10,000. He is on the button and went all-in. We'll assume you matched his bet and placed a bet of $10,000 as well, holding back $300 unbet chips.
Now, the dealer has a 6 up and your opponent has a 20 while you have a 12. You should stand with your 12 here. You win if the dealer busts or makes 21. Standing gives you a 52% chance of victory.
If you hit once instead and stand on whatever total you make, your chances drop to roughly 50%. Close, but not as good.
If the dealer hits soft 17 in your game, the strategy remains the same but your chances improve to 55% for standing or 51% for hitting once.
To answer your question: Should you have stood with 13? Yes, and you should have stood with 12 as well.