You Ever Do This?

W

White Guy

Well-Known Member
#1
#1
This happened twice to me in the last couple weeks..

Playing DD. Heads up count around 0, +1. Have a Min Bet out, Get dealt a 5 or 7 or something low against a Card that says Hit. I Hit, get a duece, Hit, Get a three, hit again get a 2 or 3 etc until I end up staying @ 15 or 16 v a 7 or 8 because I know the cut card is right there and I want to get a hand in with a Big bet on the Now + count. I have done this twice recently and it worked out both times to where I lost the small bet and won the big bet which was the last hand. Prob not the best idea for cover though.

Without factoring in the red flags I am assuming this is a +EV play but just curious if anyone ever figured it.

Thanks.
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
Your wording was confusing, but I assume you mean that by not taking another hit you are guaranteed to play the next round at a +4 or +5 count. It would be foolish IMO to chase a min bet hand at the risk of losing a play at max bet with a 2% or 2.5% advantage.
 
blackjack avenger

blackjack avenger

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
depends & VARIANCE

What is the -EV of the small bet error
What is the EV of the big hand

I am thinking the ev of the big hand must be rather strong due to variance of the big hand.

If your not sure of the answer your gambling.
 
W

White Guy

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
That's what I am wondering.. Is it better to try to win a Min bet hand by hitting a 14 -16 in a +5 or higher TC vs a card that you are supposed to hit or stay and play a 5+ Unit bet on the final hand of the shoe?

I would guess the latter is better but not sure.
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
White Guy said:
That's what I am wondering.. Is it better to try to win a Min bet hand by hitting a 14 -16 in a +5 or higher TC vs a card that you are supposed to hit or stay and play a 5+ Unit bet on the final hand of the shoe?

I would guess the latter is better but not sure.
Click to expand...
Your EV is far better for the latter and your bet will be much larger as well. What's there not to like?
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
AussiePlayer said:
How many indicies are you using? The correct play at a high count may be to stand anyway.
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OP said against a dealer upcard of 7 or 8. We're talking about either 15 or 16 vs 7 or 8. I normally hit, but that's because I normally play 6- or 8-deck and would not stand on a hard 15 or 16 against a dealer 7 or 8 except a 16 vs. an 8 at +16 for 6-deck. In single deck, which I never play, I would stand in both cases, and in double deck, I would stand on the 16 and hit the 15.
 
W

White Guy

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
I know the indices. This is assuming it was correct to hit with the indices.


I figured it made sense just wanted some input.

Thanks
 
I

itrack

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
The question becomes "Will standing guarantee me another round?" If you were to hit and still have a chance at another round, I think hitting would be the play for sure. (Say you have 2 or 3 cards left and you have a 16v7). I guess at DD you can probably estimate fairly well how many cards are left before the cut card though. In a shoe game I doubt that standing would ever be the correct play, since it is usually too tough to estimate how many cards are actually left before the CC. If I knew that there was only 1 or 2 cards left before the cut card, I would do it every time, assuming I was going to increase my bet quite a bit.

If you really wanted to get an exact answer to this question, I think you would need to run a sim on a program such as CVData and look at the EV of the given hand in question, the average number of cards used given a certain dealer upcard, and then figure out the EV of the next hand given your intended bet.
 
T

tthree

Banned
#11
#11
The conditional penalty for BS in general for deviating with these hands (15 or 16 vs 7 or 8) is from 6% to 10% of the expected EV for your min bet (~-.4). Obviously at TC +5 it would be much, much less. So it costs you well less than .024 of your min bet wager to stand. Compare that to an EV of +2.5% of your big bet. You gain much more than your spread ratio of big bet to min bet over what you give up. Stand if you know it will add a round at big bet at TC +5 HILO.
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#12
#12
Let's look at a specific situation here: You have 16 vs. 8 and decide to stand in order to have one extra hand dealt. The penalty for not hitting is around 7.5% so you need to make that up on the next hand. If you have a 2% advantage on the next hand then you would want to bet at least 4 times more than your sacrificial bet. If you have a 3% advantage then you would need to bet 2.5 times more than your min bet. If you are using an aggressive spread (any why wouldn't you?) then you are probably covering yourself on this particular hand.

As long as you are taking advantage of the extra hand and you know that it would not have been dealt if you played properly then in some cases it makes sense to eat a min bet. However, my liberal use of italics should be an indication that this is dependent on several factors.

-Sonny-
 
S

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#13
#13
Sonny said:
The penalty for not hitting is around 7.5% so you need to make that up on the next hand.
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The penalty is not 7.5% of your BET, but 7.5% of your EQUITY.

If you have a count of +5 and hit 16v8, your equity is about 50%. If you stand, your equity is 7.5% less, or 46.25%. You have to make up about 3.75% of a bet.

Getting back to the OP's question - If standing will GUARANTEE another round, and if your next bet is more than twice as much as the bet on the hand in question, it's +EV to stand on the 16.

Obviously, standing WON'T guarantee another round, but I would guess that strategy wouldn't change it by very much. I think its' safe to assume that if you plan on TRIPLING your bet or more, your criteria would be easily met.

I personally make this play often, but then again; I'm usually doing it not off the count but because I'm expecting the next card to be an ace!
 
Last edited:
Gamblor

Gamblor

Well-Known Member
#15
#15
Sucker said:
Getting back to the OP's question - If standing will GUARANTEE another round, and if your next bet is more than twice as much as the bet on the hand in question, it's +EV to stand on the 16.
Click to expand...
Even if you have no clue whether standing will get you another round, you can determine the % chance that standing will get you another round depending on how many players are at the table.
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
#17
#17
shadroch said:
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Click to expand...
In this case we're talking about 5 birds in the bush (max bet at double deck) or maybe 8 or more birds in the bush (6- or 8-deck), assuming the next round is guaranteed by the move.
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#18
#18
Sucker said:
The penalty is not 7.5% of your BET, but 7.5% of your EQUITY.

If you have a count of +5 and hit 16v8, your equity is about 50%. If you stand, your equity is 7.5% less, or 46.25%. You have to make up about 3.75% of a bet.
Click to expand...
Can you explain that a little further? I don't understand the difference between EV and equity.

-Sonny-
 
S

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#19
#19
Sonny said:
Can you explain that a little further? I don't understand the difference between EV and equity.

-Sonny-
Click to expand...
No difference; the words are interchangeable.
EV (expected value) = equity.

I could just as easily have worded it THIS way:
"The penalty is not 7.5% of your BET, but 7.5% of your EV.
If you have a count of +5 and hit 16v8, your EV is about 50%. If you stand, your EV is 7.5% less, or 46.25%."
 
blackjack avenger

blackjack avenger

Well-Known Member
#20
#20
oh, it gets worse

How often does one have a small bet out on the give up play, with a TC 5? So it seems this situation is very rare

If we look at the 2 hands in isolation one cannot put out their max TC 5 bet because of the negative EV of the give up hand. The same situation happens when one plays all, the negative bets drag overall EV down and the size of big bets. A pure Kelly player would have to adjust the big bet.
 
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