Hey I'm glad more people are getting involved in this. Especially people that don't want my milk money
I'm afraid to go to school now lol.
OK, I get if you always bet a fraction of something, you'll always have something left. So, OK, he'll never ever go broke if you want to put it like that.
Maybe what I'm wondering about is say a "pure" Kelly bettor does play a fixed number of hands. Maybe even a fairly large number of hands. Perhaps my question would be better phrased as "After playing 1MM sessions of at most 1MM hands each session, how often would he have less than 1%, or 0.1%, whatever, of his original roll left?" Maybe even either at some point during those 1MM hands or even at the end? Would that happen in somewhat close to 135,300 sessions of the 1MM sessions?
Would it be true if he ever did get to say 1% of his roll left, wouldn't it take a heck of a long time anyway from that forward to just double it to 2% of original roll?
Would having some very small percentage of his starting roll left after 1MM hands, or even at some point during the 1MM hands, be approaching 13.53%? Like, say, how often would he stop playing if at some point he had lost at least 99%, or 99.9% if u want, of starting roll?
Isn't there anyway a 10% chance of losing 90% (not sure if that is exactly 90% or maybe "at least" 90% or not?) (or even if it's right lol) of his original roll at some point?
What is the magic of that 13.53% anyway? Why does, what does it mean that, "=exp(-2/1)" (Excel formula) equal 0.1353 and the 1 is the Kelly fraction? Does it not apply to a "pure" Kelly bettor as well as an "equivalent Kelly bettor"? Maybe at least practically speaking anyway?
I don't care how you're betting but, if you lose 99% or 99.9% of your starting roll at some point, you ain't getting rich anytime soon. Even if that 0.1% you have left is being bet in a way that will maximize its growth. If a fixed-spread Kelly bettor says to himself with a $10K starting roll, "I will play at most 1MM hands or just quit if I ever have only $100 left", after losing 99% of his roll, how often will he have to quit compared to a "pure" Kelly bettor who says the same thing with the same starting $10K roll? Would it be just as often?
BJ Avenger - never fear. I'm Kelly-betting my milk money so there will always be some left for you :grin: