how to do ace tracking?
- Thread starter beyondbj
- Start date
There are no good books on this subject. There is one very bad book by David Morris. You can find a review of it by Arnold Snyder over on blackjackforumonline.com. The way most people learn is from someone who already does it. But good sequencing games are so rare that it probably isn't worth the time to learn it.
Hi, I have 2 books :
1. Blackjack Ace Prediction by David McDowell.
Although the main points are wrong in this book, the math,
and how McDowell diagnoses the shuffles, i like this book
because the book showed me many viewpoints and will tell you
the principles of prediction and a good trick, I call it the sandwich aces.
But you have to find out the truth by yourself through your own shuffles
and statistics.
If you get an ace more than every 13 th upcard with a big bet, you have an advantage. One more ace is insufficient, you should have at lest 2 more aces.
When you have an extra ace, the advantage is 52%, when the enemy (dealer) doesn't get it.
2. Snyders Shuffle tracking Cookbook.
3. There are more books, the books of Dominic O' Brian, find out yourself why.?
The world record of remembering a deck of 52 cards is 26,´´ seconds,
by Ben Pridmore, he remembers the cards by increments of 2 cards, so do
I.
Bother your fantasy, how to master the job and find out opportunities.
The best rainer:cool2:
1. Blackjack Ace Prediction by David McDowell.
Although the main points are wrong in this book, the math,
and how McDowell diagnoses the shuffles, i like this book
because the book showed me many viewpoints and will tell you
the principles of prediction and a good trick, I call it the sandwich aces.
But you have to find out the truth by yourself through your own shuffles
and statistics.
If you get an ace more than every 13 th upcard with a big bet, you have an advantage. One more ace is insufficient, you should have at lest 2 more aces.
When you have an extra ace, the advantage is 52%, when the enemy (dealer) doesn't get it.
2. Snyders Shuffle tracking Cookbook.
3. There are more books, the books of Dominic O' Brian, find out yourself why.?
The world record of remembering a deck of 52 cards is 26,´´ seconds,
by Ben Pridmore, he remembers the cards by increments of 2 cards, so do
I.
Bother your fantasy, how to master the job and find out opportunities.
The best rainer:cool2:
I'll start this post with...Please guys cut me some slack. I may not explain this as written in somebody's book. I'm a self taught, school of hard knocks guy who evidently has been luckier than most.
As time went by in my career I began to notice that keeping track of aces would benefit me in a few ways, so I started side counting aces to separate them from the tens. My main reason for doing this at first was to try to avoid the dreaded ace on the doubled eleven. Second was to improve the gain from blackjacks. This led to tracking aces which is allot harder and didn't seem very profitable that often.
Tracking aces requires remembering the cards that surround it and understanding the shuffle so that you can watch for those cards and anticipate the ace. This skill is very dealer dependent as far as the quality of the riffles. Each dealer shuffles the cards different so your guess to where the ace is depends on how accurately the dealer shuffles. The cards you are watching for, that warn you an ace is coming, may be further apart than you think they are. The second part of this strategy is to steer that ace into your hand which if you're playing by yourself means dumping hands you may possibly have won had you played it right and that costs you in the long run. I abandoned this idea shortly after I began using it because it is too unpredictable. I replaced it with something I still use today and that is tracking favorable groups. During the shoe I watch for times that a group of tens and aces are together. I shuffle track that group during the shuffle and cut the deck to bring those cards into play aprox. 1 deck in. When I get to that spot of the deck I try to catch those with a higher bet. This does not work every time and does not happen very often, but it seemed to be more profitable than tracking aces.
Again guys please cut me some slack. This is something I developed on my own, in real world conditions, with very little help from somebody else's knowledge....JtMM
As time went by in my career I began to notice that keeping track of aces would benefit me in a few ways, so I started side counting aces to separate them from the tens. My main reason for doing this at first was to try to avoid the dreaded ace on the doubled eleven. Second was to improve the gain from blackjacks. This led to tracking aces which is allot harder and didn't seem very profitable that often.
Tracking aces requires remembering the cards that surround it and understanding the shuffle so that you can watch for those cards and anticipate the ace. This skill is very dealer dependent as far as the quality of the riffles. Each dealer shuffles the cards different so your guess to where the ace is depends on how accurately the dealer shuffles. The cards you are watching for, that warn you an ace is coming, may be further apart than you think they are. The second part of this strategy is to steer that ace into your hand which if you're playing by yourself means dumping hands you may possibly have won had you played it right and that costs you in the long run. I abandoned this idea shortly after I began using it because it is too unpredictable. I replaced it with something I still use today and that is tracking favorable groups. During the shoe I watch for times that a group of tens and aces are together. I shuffle track that group during the shuffle and cut the deck to bring those cards into play aprox. 1 deck in. When I get to that spot of the deck I try to catch those with a higher bet. This does not work every time and does not happen very often, but it seemed to be more profitable than tracking aces.
Again guys please cut me some slack. This is something I developed on my own, in real world conditions, with very little help from somebody else's knowledge....JtMM
Here are your approximate advantages in a BJ game knowing your first card has a 1 in N chance of being an ace...
N=
13: -0.42%
12: -0.06%
11: 0.36%
10: 0.87%
9: 1.49%
8: 2.26%
7: 3.26%
6: 4.58%
5: 6.44%
4: 9.23%
3: 13.68%
2: 23.15%
1: 51%
As you see, getting the ace 1 out of 13 times represents the normal chances of an ace and represents a standard house edge on a game. Getting the ace every time gives you your 51%. It's also obvious that you have to get the ace at least 1 out of 9 times before ace sequencing becomes competitive with counting as a choice of how you are going to spend your time in a casino.
What many sequencers have forgotten to take into account is what happens to your edge when you don't get the ace. If the dealer looks at your first card, puts it down and says "This card is not an ace, do you still want to play?" your answer is 'No' because your average edge when you don't have an ace is around -4.7%.
N=
13: -0.42%
12: -0.06%
11: 0.36%
10: 0.87%
9: 1.49%
8: 2.26%
7: 3.26%
6: 4.58%
5: 6.44%
4: 9.23%
3: 13.68%
2: 23.15%
1: 51%
As you see, getting the ace 1 out of 13 times represents the normal chances of an ace and represents a standard house edge on a game. Getting the ace every time gives you your 51%. It's also obvious that you have to get the ace at least 1 out of 9 times before ace sequencing becomes competitive with counting as a choice of how you are going to spend your time in a casino.
What many sequencers have forgotten to take into account is what happens to your edge when you don't get the ace. If the dealer looks at your first card, puts it down and says "This card is not an ace, do you still want to play?" your answer is 'No' because your average edge when you don't have an ace is around -4.7%.
creeping panther said:
Very well said and along with some other fine posts made recently should be a must read for all AP's. You are a true "BJ Warrior" Mathman.
CP
CP
but here is the thing far as i see it. just how much can we know? lol, well maybe a lot, smart math stuff, probability, simulations and practice. thing is there is another part to it all, having to do with experience and our understanding of this stuff. it's imho ok to doubt one's self but lol don't count yourself short either. so like you say mathman has his own understanding and it can count for a lot.
Wise Won
We both know that you know ALOT!
I have a feeling that soon many of us will be meeting....in person... .........................Mathman
:toast:
CP
sagefr0g said:
hey CP, i think you are so right. and that said i know nothing, lol.
but here is the thing far as i see it. just how much can we know? lol, well maybe a lot, smart math stuff, probability, simulations and practice. thing is there is another part to it all, having to do with experience and our understanding of this stuff. it's imho ok to doubt one's self but lol don't count yourself short either. so like you say mathman has his own understanding and it can count for a lot.
but here is the thing far as i see it. just how much can we know? lol, well maybe a lot, smart math stuff, probability, simulations and practice. thing is there is another part to it all, having to do with experience and our understanding of this stuff. it's imho ok to doubt one's self but lol don't count yourself short either. so like you say mathman has his own understanding and it can count for a lot.
I have a feeling that soon many of us will be meeting....in person... .........................Mathman
:toast:
CP
The numbers come from the Monkey Lab!
The tricky part in doing your advantage calculations is combining the effect of aces you predict with aces that just show up randomly. You can miss the ace you wanted but there's another one right behind it, sometimes. There are also the problems of false keys and duplicate keys.
The way to check your work in straight ace sequencing (no steering) is to assume a flat bet, calculate the number of aces and non-aces you predict for each shoe and when you add it all together you should end up with the house edge for the game. If you don't you've done something wrong.
The tricky part in doing your advantage calculations is combining the effect of aces you predict with aces that just show up randomly. You can miss the ace you wanted but there's another one right behind it, sometimes. There are also the problems of false keys and duplicate keys.
The way to check your work in straight ace sequencing (no steering) is to assume a flat bet, calculate the number of aces and non-aces you predict for each shoe and when you add it all together you should end up with the house edge for the game. If you don't you've done something wrong.
I thought I was going to get beat up on this one. Thank you guys for the kind words, it means allot to me. I hope when we all get together we can share our experiences with each other and empty the trays at the "Dream". I can't thank you guys enough for giving me a new lease on life. I'm on such a roll right now with everything and man does it feel good. Allot of this is due to you guys CP, Sagefrog and the likes. You guys have given me a different insight to this game and it has helped a ton. Keep up the GREAT work...JtMM
It's a high relative EoR, but I think the numbers for SP21 will be a little less for the player. Getting an ace in SP21 will give you 25% fewer naturals. Sure you have the advantageous ace-splitting rules and some bonus hands that often involve an ace, and that will get back some of it but I don't believe it's enough to make up for the missing naturals.
