Stop loss limit?

Kevin Blackwood says that AP players should not have a stop-loss limit, however I have trouble staying when I can't seem to win a hand in high + counts and usually leave the game after 3 or 4 losses of 5 or 6 units in a row, leaving a favorable count at the table. I understand Kevin's reason that the more an AP player plays the more he will win in his career and if you leave a bad variance it will just continue somewhere down the line. But is there any room for bad luck?
should I stay and play or get out? Any opinions would be great. If anyone out there has a stop loss what is it? I should mention that I'm a red chip player BR of $3000 some wonging in al;ways wonging out at -1. 6 decks

That’s a very bad plan! You spent all that time looking for favorable counts! Why would you walk away from them just because you lost a few hands? How do you expect to win it back if you aren’t making bets when you have the advantage?

It is the same thing. Luck = Variance. Sometimes you will have positive variance (good luck) and sometimes you will have negative variance (bad luck) but eventually the two will cancel out and you will be left with the results of your skill.

You should never leave during a positive count. Every time you do you are giving away money. Fortunately you are always Wonging in so you won’t be “bleeding” during the negative counts, but backcounting tables all night just to walk away from positive counts is not going to earn you any money. You will be lucky to get 25-30 positive hands per hour so your hourly win rate is already low. To throw away any of those opportunities is just a waste of time and money.

-Sonny-

i'm probably one of the few here that uses a stop win strategy. it's done for mostly physchological reasons. i do not employ a stop loss strategy infact i always play out a losing session untill my trip bankroll is exhausted to the point where i can no longer double down or split.
see link below for how i stop win limit my play:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=16189&postcount=10

there are links within the post that further explain.
best regards,
mr fr0g

For some sims on stops see http://www.advantageplayer.com/blackjack/forums/bj-main/webbbs.cgi?read=18995 (Archive copy)

Yes, but you don't walk away from a positive count! That is the big difference. That is why Norm's chart shows such a drop in advantage for Tom's style of play. Since you always play through the positive counts it will not affect you the same way.

-Sonny-

Hi let me echo what Sonny said- the only way you are going to win your money back is with a high count and there's one right in front of you right now. Only twice have I walked away from a high count- the first time my pockets were literally empty, and the second time I was being thrown out the door by four security guards. If I had had enough to put down a minimum bet or if there were only two security guards, I would have kept playing!

Even one time I met another counter at the table and he didn't seem pleased with me remaining there. But I didn't realize he was a counter until we got a high count, and I waited for that count just like he did, so I played it out.

Leaving at the end of the count is a different story. If you are tired, drunk, emotions messing you up due to a losing streak, and you think it might be affecting your game, go home. The casino will still be there when you are feeling better. I usually bring an amount with me such that if I were to lose it all, I'd be in no mood to play anymore that night anyway. That kind of a stop-loss doesn't hurt you.

I had one of those weekends in KC last Saturday/Sunday. I wonged as much as I could, but that's limited in that particular casino because of the crowds of people all wanting to play. They don't mind you sitting out a few hands, but sitting back for 3/4 of a shoe, every shoe, will get you invited to leave and make room for someone who is going to play every hand!

Anyway, it wasn't so much the bleeding hands that killed me, it was the positive count ones. I just couldn't seem to win on them and I had plenty of doubles and splits at high counts. Just wasn't "falling" for me. Had I not hit another Royal Flush on VP I'd have been down 100 units. As it was, I came out only down 33 units. I didn't quit playing during positive counts EVER! But it sometimes occured to me that I ought to be upstairs in the comped room with the Jacuzi!

If your bankroll really gets clobbered, you might get to the point where you need to resize your bets (lower) based on Kelly-like calculations? That's all I can think of.

Otherwise, I like the rule of thumb to keep playing as long as the count is higher than the number of security guards.

thats right i'd never leave a positive tc. heck that's what it's all about. Tom needs to realize that for sure. one must be willing to put the money out there when the tc reflects an advantage. needs to also realize that it isn't always going to work out in the short run hence he is going to experience some pretty nasty negative fluctuation but in the long run his positive fluctuation and expectation shall bring him where he wants to be. it's really the only way to go unless he's using advanced techniques.
best regards,,
mr fr0g

You have to think of it just as units. Your minimum unit and therefore your bankroll should be set so that if you lose most or all your not sick for three days. I am a black chip player so 70% of my plays in a session may be my minimum of $100 but when the count is good I will be ready to go 6-8 times that for multiple hands win or lose.Sometimes it makes me a little nervous when I am losing but I still play it out.

Variance = Luck

There is no difference between variance and luck. Good variance is good luck and bad variance is bad luck. One is a math term and the other a gambler term and perhaps understanding there is no difference will help you.

In some post in the past, I listed several reasons why I believe that over 95% of people who try counting either just stop or are losing counters. One of the biggest reasons I listed was the failure to put the proper big bet out there when the casino is beating your butt. As a cardcounter you are fighting to perhaps get a lifetime advantage over the casino of 1.5%, a very small amount. If you do put those big bets out there everytime they are called for, you are killing off your advantage. If say the count is so high that you now have a 3% advantage on the hand, instead of max bet, you would be betting 0, you just can not win like that.
If you (and there are many new counters who probably share your feelings) got interested in counting by watching some of the tv shows the past few years, I can understand the feeling. These shows tended to show that counting was gauranteed money, the counter was making the casino his personal ATM machine and that is far from the truth. It is a small advantage and to get that advantage and land up winning, a red chip player especially can not give anything away. You must only play good games, understand the variance and risk of ruin, play when alert, do not chase loses by betting big when the count does not call for it, put the proper sized bet out there at the proper time and put that bet out there even if they are kicking your butt.

ihate17

Putting that big bet out there after having your nose torn open by the 118th busted stiff of the night can set off a mental red flag, but it does have to be thrown out there. For the first time in my admittedly very short counting career, I sat down at a $25 table because the count called for it, throwing out my big bet, and I have to say bells and whistles were going off in my head, but I know that's something I'll get used to through more play. I only managed to get in 5 hands before the count tanked (unfortunately I only won a few units), but it felt good to get past that inital apprehension knowing that this situation was the reason I had been practicing, knowing I had a tiny edge over the casino and putting on the table as much as I reasonably could.

As a $5 player (though I'm working on the BR!), your win rate per hour is pretty low even with perfect play, in many cases less than minimum wage. I enjoy the atmosphere and the challenge of play to make it worth my time, but obviously as you have more money to put in play, your win rate will go up to make it legitimately worth one's time to sit at the tables and play, knowing you can make $20-$100 an hour just by playing a card game.

Thanks to all who replied. Your points really opened my eyes, in the past 2 years I have been pretty conservitive or overprotective of my BR. I went to the casino last night and took my usual trip BR of 40 units had decent counts all night (2hrs). I only had to wong out twice but was still getting hammered pretty bad by the dealer. I was down 32 units ( normally I would be gone with a loss by now ) and made a come back to a loss of 1 unit. what a rush!

What kind of table?

Was this $25 table a shoe game or SD or DD?
If it was a shoe game, what kind of rules did it have that made it so playable that it had $25 min?
If it was a SD or DD game, Where was it? Most of these deck/pitch games, seldom allow mid deck entry.

It was a 6D, S17, DAS, DA2, RSA game. It was worth playing because the count was high enough, so I would have been betting at least $25 anyway.

If you are patient, it is ok to lower your expected return to reduce your variance. Don't feel like you have to spread 1-10 on a $10 min game. Personally, I am not ready to bankroll $100 bets. As long as I have a game with good rules, a 0.50% expectation (not including exit of some negative shoes) is adequate for me. As my bankroll increases over time, I'll work my way up to the $100 hands. Right now I don't enjoy losing $400 in a session--LOL.

Since I can play nearly 100% accurate KO, my plan now is to work on shuffle tracking and see if I can boost my expected return that way, rather than using huge bet variances that can kill your bankroll.

Good luck with shuffle tracking, you're going to need it!

Thanks--I don't expect to learn it overnight!

Guarded Stop-Loss

I currently split my trip bankroll into two parts. At a 40% loss of the first part, I analyse the situation. IF POISITVE COUNT I ALWAYS CONTINUE. If negative or neutral I usually leave the table and take a break.

At 100% loss of FIRST HALF of bankroll I usually standup, unless very positive count.

The other factor I consider the the number of hands remaining until the shuffle. With a negative or neutral count and many hands left I leave. With a neutral count and few hands left before shuffle I may ride it out.

This generally gives me AT LEAST three shots at a winning session. If the first two sessions bomb I have still only lost 40% of my TOTAL TRIP BANKROLL. Worst case I drop 50% of my TOTAL TRIP BANKROLL - sometimes even more as I will continue to play as long as count is positive and any part of my trip bankroll remains.

I also use this in combination with a stop win. If my overall trip is in a negative position, I may leave the table quickly on a subsequent win. Regaining some of my losses, then encountering even a slight negative count is enough to have me exit the table. Taking a quick run up may give me the funds to cover a couple more seatings should I encounter a negative situation on the following seating.

My tolerance for negative counts shrinks or grows SLIGHTLY based on the positiion of my trip bankroll. Seems to me you can be more tolerant when ahead, but need to be more conservative when behind.

This refers only to staying at the table. I never modify my BS because I am down - unless there's no funds left in my trip bankroll or my other pocket (non-bankroll funds) . I reach in my other pocket to cover a split or double if necessary.

This works for me, but may not work for others. I use an extremely conserative bet ramp, so this could prove disasterous for an aggressive ramper. I have no way of knowing.

I am mildly tolerant of a total trip bust out, because I use a small trip bankroll (less than 6% of total). Worst trip in last 39 was an 80% loss of my trip bankroll. I had 20% of trip bankroll remaining and encountered a negative count.

Prior to adopting this I had used a larger trip bankroll and lost almost all of it on one trip, on the next trip I busted it entirely in one 45 minute session (human factor - I was overconfident that cards would turn). Ouch! The two trips cost me about 25 percent of my total bankroll at the time. It took 10 more sessions to get my total bankroll back to it's previous level.

Even though my total bankroll recovered, then increased another 50 plus percent, I continue to use the smaller trip bankroll.

Forgive me for digressing into bankroll management, but I do use it in combination with stop loss and stop win.

I haven't seen anything posted on this site about using a stop win. Maybe no one else wants to stop winning! :laugh:


-Buzzer

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=18282&postcount=3
i employ a stop win with (hopefully) thoughtful reservation. mostly for psychological reasons. i have some other reasons though. i respect old saws such as "wisdom is the better part of valor", "a penny saved is a penny earned", "one step forward, two steps backwards", "Rome wasn't built in a day", yada, yada, yada.
George Foreman once gave an explaination of how he went about a fight. he told how his father used to chop down huge trees, by taking little chips at a time and how in his fights he would chip away at his opponents. this from a boxer who often delivered devastating knock out punchs in fight after fight. he said he never really went for the knock out blow but just let it happen.
the first day i started work at the place that would be my employment for almost the next thirty years the CEO of the company spoke with me. he only said one thing, "just don't over do". i didn't really understand what he meant but i did by the time i retired.
i'm thinking that this is a preditory entropy driven world and a 'morality' driven world we enjoy living in. evolution employs chance and advantage and in a way that strangely seems to overcome entropy by using it so it seems. on the most fundamental level the way that this happens is that it comes about on a quantum level. on that level virtually anything can and will happen (the source of Moore's law? ie. if anything can go wrong it will go wrong and at the worst possible time ) any way what is for us living in the macroscopic world it seems magic can happen in the sub microscopic world. if quantum theory is correct this occurs in quantum steps.
then there is the 'morality' side of the equation. i can only relate my own experience. what is 'morality'... who the hell knows but i can just say this it's been my experience that when i find myself on the wrong side of this nebulous term that some how events come back and bite me in the butt. murderers and thiefs get caught or if not live a life of misery. magic or 'morality' what ever it appears that 'morality' plays a part in what happens as the drama of life unfolds.
in short it's a complicated world. blackjack too me is a fractal of that world. think of it this massive universe and all it's mysteries and some how events have unfolded in such a way that there is this fun little game called blackjack amongst all the other amazing fun little things. again there is no 'free lunch' in life. progress against entropy demands work and effort but blackjack affords an opportunity unique in that no apparent useful work is done but the probability of obtaining a 'free lunch' looms large.
one of the things that a study of advantage play blackjack teachs is the importantance of not overbetting. translate that don't over extend your position. complicating the issue of overbetting is the fact that advantage play is a gamble. the best advantage player there is in this world still depends upon luck that he doesn't fall victum to his risk of ruin. further complicating these issues is the fact that an advantage player needs to play a lot to realize the fruits of the advantage employed since the advantage is statistical in nature.
now comes the question "when should i quit?" the real answer is when you quit if you are playing with an advantage and plan to play again one day. statistically it doesn't matter much even if you end your play on an advantageous note (unless you do so consistantly really it's better to play through all advantageous phases). think of a crockodile and a man. how much more predatory can you get than a crockodile? a crockodile is going to eat you! but really a man can with his wit defeat a crockodile hands down even if the crock is a magnificent predatory machine. i think casinos are like crockodiles and advantage players are too. the thing is though an advantage player has a mind and a casino does not. so the advantage player not only can beat the casinos game but also out wit it. the advantage player needs to stand on the 'moral' high ground. i believe we do hold that position. but still when to quit? quit when you are strong. if that means after losing virtually every thing in your pocket fine. you are still quiting with the advantage statiscally and morally. but what if your pockets are full with crockodile blood? so much the better i say. now you walk away from the battle with the statistical edge and that risk of ruin factor is a little bit weaker. so now when you go back crockodile hunting on another day you do so from a position a little bit stronger than when you did so previously. so i like to quit when either through luck or skill i some how end up being about one standard deviation above my expected value when measured against a reasonable amount of time that i might want to play. too me if i'm up that much i can't see much reason to continue to play for that time period that is left. i know there is the possibility that i'll win even more but really i can't expect to do so. the time period for which i've alloted my self to play for that day has been reduced by what ever time i actually did play. that means statitically my odds of improvement on my winnings have been reduced for the day because of that time factor. for this day the battle has been won. my muscle (bankroll) has strengthened. exercise is good for muscles but over exercise can damage them. if you let a strengthened muscle rest it will perform even better and strengthen even more when it is next exercised. so i savor my new strength by resting and basking in my win as the crockodile thrashs about devouring it's witless victims. i come back again (a little more experienced) and do battle with the crockodile again from a little bit stronger position mentally and financially.

best regards,
mr fr0g