Confessions of a Flat-betting Card Counter

This sort of relates to the "Counting for the First Time" thread but I was wondering what a flat-betting card counter could expect.

First I was wondering how much the HA would be reduced in an 8D play-all game, like the one in AC, by only making the required index plays, including insurance, (always with a flat-bet) when it was called for by the count, either positive or negative. I'm sure not enough to make it a +EV but would I at least get a 0.1% reduction? I use all the Hi-Lo index numbers.

And also what a flat-betting Wonging player might expect would be nice to kniow but I realize who would wong-in with a TC+5 and bet the minimum lol. How little money could a flat-betting Wonging player expect anyway?

I might as well admit it but I'm more or less a flat-betting card counter. I enjoy the counting, something to do while sitting there, but hate the variance and don't play enough hours per year to really make much difference anyway. If I break-even on a trip, I'm happy. I do make index plays though - usually that's enough to PO alot of the people at the table .


Any other idiots like me out there?

from my very rudimentary understanding playing the correct index plays will not get you to 0.00% edge, you'll still be -, especially in an 8D game.

To get to break even you'll need to probably spread 1-4 to 1-6 in 8D. This spread can take place right at the key count or where your edge is roughly 0% (+/- 0.5%). So anywhere above the key count you can bet your max bet (be it 4x or 6x), anywhere below your min.

wonging in will help, as suggested by others in a different thread, wonging in at +1.5TC is reasonable if you were going to flat bet (i think).

It would probably be around a 0.05-0.1% decrease in the house edge, assuming you’re using all indices (about 200 or so?).

That depends on your bankroll and chosen RoR. A $5k bankroll with a 5% RoR might get you $6/hour. Full Kelly betting would be closer to $9/hour.

All of the idiots I’ve seen play a lot worse than you! :laugh:

-Sonny-

Thanks Mimosine I agree with everything you said. I'm guessing index plays might shave between 0.1% and 0.2% off the house edge but it's just a guess.
If it's accurate, I'm very happy with the reduced HA. If it's like only 0.05% or less, I'm not quite so happy

As far as breaking even goes, that's pretty easy to do anyway. All I have to do is win a $20 bet once every 5 hours or so (with a $10 unit) to make up for the one unit I'm expected to lose in that time.

Thanks Sonny. Your range of .0005 to .001 certainly wouln't surprise me. I know it ain't much. I know all the indexes but u don't get to use many over -10 or +10 in an 8D shoe. And u don't get any practical gain from them anyway.

When u say $6/hour, is that with a $1 unit i.e. 6 units an hour? That can't be. Maybe your saying 0.2 units/hour?

You know how it is - the non-idiots (basic strategy players) think you're playing like an idiot while the real idiots (non basic strategy players) really really want to kill you

And, of course, the irony is I AM playing like an idiot from a card-counter's perspective! :grin:

If you choose to only flat bet and play all hands (and I don't understand why you would want to do that), you will be better off switching to an ace-neutral or ace-negative count. You can cut the house edge in half that way. But you will never overcome it in an 8D game, only very good SD games allow for that, and you don't overcome it by very much.

Hi-Opt I would be an obvious choice; you count the 3-6 as +1 and all 10's as -1.

For $6/hour you would flat bet a $25 unit at TC+1 or higher. If you Wong in at +2 then you could flat bet $40 and make about $8/hour with the same 5% RoR.

-Sonny-

Thanks Monkey.

Isn't Hi-Lo an ace-negative count?

I do it mostly because I don't like the variance and bankroll reuirements of spreading 1-12 but enjoy counting. I mean I'll take a break in bad counts, maybe increase my bet a little in good counts, make the index plays etc. but, overall, just having fun for a couple days gambling on vacation a couple times a year.

Amazing how often I say to myself "would have been killed in that count with a $120 bet out!"

I mean this is a game you can play 50,000 hands and still have a better than 1 in 5 chance of being ahead.

Thanks Sonny. So a quarter of a unit per hour. Not too surprising I guess.

And certainly not worth standing around 45 minutes every hour waiting to jump in. At least for me.

If I want to make .25 units/hour, I'll make 2 $20 bets every 4-5 hours lol.

Surprising I make fewer units/hour with the larger bet. Maybe not since I'm playing half as many hands waiting for the +2 to come around.

Monkey said Hi-Opt I, not Hi-Lo


Kasi
Yes, hi-low is an ace negative count, but AM mentioned Hi-Opt, I believe.

As you already know, the money is really made by spreading with the count and the indice plays just add a little to it. One can make money by spreading and playing no indices (just BS), but one can not make money doing the opposite, flat betting and playing all indices. That is, except for the wonger who flat bets only positive counts of +2 or more.

As a casual player, aware that you are not playing a positive game but feeling comfortable in doing this, it is a personal decision and we all understand this. Those times where you see your $120 bet would have been killed (if you had spread) will also be surpassed by those times you see a natural in a high count or a split followed by a double etc.

I tend to be very conservative with new players, and you seem to be conservative on your own. When or if the day comes, and your stomach and bankroll can handle $360 or $480 on the table on one hand, (forget $120), then it will be the time for you to spread to $120. I say this because it will happen. You will have a max bet out there, get a pair that should be split and then get a double, or get another card matching the pair. You can actually have (does not happen often) 8 max bets on the table, I have had 7 a couple of times, and if the numbers call for you to split or double you can not split for less, should not double for less and should not play at those stakes if you are unwilling or unable to put those bucks on the table.
If you win, it will feel great.
If you lose, it will feel like S*%t.
If you push, it will feel like you have a great ride to nowhere.

Often the difference between a winning and a losing cardcounter over the years, is the guts to spread, spreading even when they are kicking your butt.

ihate17

Kasi,

There are a few methods that aren't often discussed or well understood that don't require bet ramping that can, on their own bring you to a 0% edge game. perhaps employing them with index play could being you to the game you're looking for.

Fred Renzey's "blackjack bluebook II" contains a section on hand interaction: doubling up on others' doubles for less, putting down a bet on certain hands where a person may be hesitant to split, and also trying to pawn off your bad splits. According to Fred, doing a few of these plays per hour makes it a break even game. Maybe with these techniques, plus good index play, you can get the small edge you're looking for. i'm not certain, but you might want to explore the avenue a little bit on your own.

Thanks Ihate17. BTW I hate 17's too

I guess I misunderstood his "better off switching to an ace-neutral or ace-negative count". Maybe he meant "from" instead of "or".

And your absolutely right about I'll be happier more often than not betting big in the high + counts.

Let's face it, whether a counter wins or loses a given session is almost entirely due to how well or badly he did on his few big bets.

You're right - guess I am conservative. I mean even if I spread 10-1 with a $10 unit, I'm supposed to bring a 10,000-15000 bankroll for an extended trip so I can win maybe 2 units an hour? What's a lifetime bankroll supposed to be anyway - like 400 times your big bet?

Anyway, my hat's off to u "real" counters - it's a tough road.

Hand Interaction.

Mimosine -- Getting in say, 3 hand interaction plays per hour for the same amount as your own bets will trim about 0.20% off the house edge. If you're playing with larger bettors than yourself, getting in those 3 per hour for 2.5 times your own bet size can erase the 0.50% house edge in a typical shoe game.

If hand interaction is you MO, then you'd like to play with bigger players, as well as with lots of players at your table to maximize interaction opportunities.

OK, it depends on how you define "negative". A better way of putting it - a count that treats the ace as a low card. That can get a little crazy though, ace-neutral is more practical.

Still, if you are going to go through all the trouble of counting and learning all those index plays, why not make some money at it. You can always make a profit backcounting and using High-Low. Blackjack is only really fun if you make money at it.

Thanks Mimosine. I appreciate your response as I have all your responses.

And very good advice too. Sometimes they let me make bets on other people's hands and sometimes they don't. Sometimes people will back-bet my hand if they let them. I don't care as long as I get to choose what to do.

Call me weird but I'm not really seeking a positive EV game knowing that's next-to-impossible with mostly flat-betting. I'm really very content in a small negative EV game. It just seems to take so very little to overcome such a small edge. Get a net one $20 bet ahead with a $10 unit every 300 hands or so and I'm playing a dead-even game anyway.

Aw, now what's the challenge in making money in a game when you have the 1% to 2% edge? :grin:

Mr Renzy,
I am a big fan of your hand interactions,and try to play at near full tables as a comp counter. With that said,I don't come across the opportunity to interact three hands an hour very often.In fact,the few times it is that common is when I become the defacto mentor to a table full of newbies.
Something I will only do if the majority of the table are Service guys playing for the first time.
Is it your experiance that you encounter three or more such hands an hour on a regular basis?

You will be a slow loser!

With 8 decks index plays will not help you all that much. If you where a flat better playing on a good one deck game double any two 3 to 2 for blackjack I think you might have a chance at beating it. On 1 deck about 25% of your insurance chances will be profitable some will even have about an expected value of 50% or more of your insurance bets. On 8 deck shoes I would say there might only be 2-3% of profitable insurance times and they will have a much smaller average profit. Plus your ther index plays on weather or not to hit 12 against other upcards will be more useful on 1 deck than on 8 decks. I'm guessing that you are not playing in nevada and have to deal with less than optimal rules. The most amount of decks I have to play against here is 6 decks and I usally get rules with 6 decks to be able to double down on any two cards and double after a split is also allowed. Do you get an extra perks with 8 decks like drawing to split aces allowed or are the rules the same as 6 decks with 2 extra decks?

Thanks CC.

Yeah, the only extra perk you get for 8 decks is you get to lose your money faster than you do with 6 decks. So you suffer for less time

Not true--

It also means that there's more free decks of cards to get on your way out. Y'know-- so you'll have SOMETHING in your pocket after playing 8D.