Somewhat safe progressive..

M

mikeinjersey

Member
#1
#1
Out of my 4 years of playing, I feel the safest negative progressive strategy is what i'm doing now.

I'll start out with $5000 on the $100 minimum table. (high limit area)

And go $100 , if I lose then
$100 again , if I lose then
$150 , if I lose then
$200 , if I lose then
$250 .....

If I win on any of those hands I go back to $100.

My problem is after I lose the 5th hand in a row, I always tell myself beforehand to either ask for a reshuffle or go to another table. But I never have the patience to do so....so i just take my chance & hang in there until I win a hand. (which is going to cost me eventually) I've even thought about going back to $100 after i've lost 5 hands in a row, just to play it safe...

So yeah, i'll be down $800 after losing 5 hands in a row. but as long as I restart my strategy & keep my patience i'll get it back. Its just soooo hard the temptation after losing 5 hands in a row to not bet higher.....any advice ?

I've lost 15 hands in a row on 2 occasions this month & i'm still a bit traumatized from it. (completely wiped me out...14G's down the drain) So thats my goal now is to ALWAYS prevent myself from nuking myself...because losing 15 hands in a row is a very possible thing.

Any advice on what to do after losing 5 or 6 hands in a row is appreciated.. I dont wanna get in that hole again.
 
iCountNTrack

iCountNTrack

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
mikeinjersey said:
out of my 4 years of playing, i feel the safest negative progressive strategy is what i'm doing now.

I'll start out with $5000 on the $100 minimum table. (high limit area)

and go $100 , if i lose then
$100 again , if i lose then
$150 , if i lose then
$200 , if i lose then
$250 .....

If i win on any of those hands i go back to $100.

My problem is after i lose the 5th hand in a row, i always tell myself beforehand to either ask for a reshuffle or go to another table. But i never have the patience to do so....so i just take my chance & hang in there until i win a hand. (which is going to cost me eventually) i've even thought about going back to $100 after i've lost 5 hands in a row, just to play it safe...

So yeah, i'll be down $800 after losing 5 hands in a row. But as long as i restart my strategy & keep my patience i'll get it back. Its just soooo hard the temptation after losing 5 hands in a row to not bet higher.....any advice ?

I've lost 15 hands in a row on 2 occasions this month & i'm still a bit traumatized from it. (completely wiped me out...14g's down the drain) so thats my goal now is to always prevent myself from nuking myself...because losing 15 hands in a row is a very possible thing.

Any advice on what to do after losing 5 or 6 hands in a row is appreciated.. I dont wanna get in that hole again.
Click to expand...
count the cards
 
SWFL Blackjack

SWFL Blackjack

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
iCountNTrack said:
count the cards
Click to expand...
Agreed. If you have a $5,000 bankroll, you are much better off counting than using a system that will eventually fail you. If any negative progressive system truly worked, casinos would be broke and there would be many more negative progression success stories.
 
M

mikeinjersey

Member
#4
#4
SWFL Blackjack said:
Agreed. If you have a $5,000 bankroll, you are much better off counting than using a system that will eventually fail you. If any negative progressive system truly worked, casinos would be broke and there would be many more negative progression success stories.
Click to expand...

well actually, I just wanted you guys to pep-talk me into stopping & starting over my strategy whenever I lose 5 hands in a row. The urge to continue on.....is sooo strong.

regarding the card counting thing... The most I usually do is just the 10's. Since theres 96 total 10 cards in 6 decks.... I estimate that were playing with about 85 each shoe (minus the cut-card stuff) So I sometimes count the 10's...but thats about it. One thing you could always count on is a TON of 10's near the beginning of each shoe.

Counting the aces is useless I feel. heck, 4 - 5 aces could be below the cut-card for all we know. (1/6 of them)
 
2

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
mikeinjersey said:
Out of my 4 years of playing, I feel the safest negative progressive strategy is what i'm doing now.

I'll start out with $5000 on the $100 minimum table. (high limit area)

And go $100 , if I lose then
$100 again , if I lose then
$150 , if I lose then
$200 , if I lose then
$250 .....

If I win on any of those hands I go back to $100.

My problem is after I lose the 5th hand in a row, I always tell myself beforehand to either ask for a reshuffle or go to another table. But I never have the patience to do so....so i just take my chance & hang in there until I win a hand. (which is going to cost me eventually) I've even thought about going back to $100 after i've lost 5 hands in a row, just to play it safe...

So yeah, i'll be down $800 after losing 5 hands in a row. but as long as I restart my strategy & keep my patience i'll get it back. Its just soooo hard the temptation after losing 5 hands in a row to not bet higher.....any advice ?

I've lost 15 hands in a row on 2 occasions this month & i'm still a bit traumatized from it. (completely wiped me out...14G's down the drain) So thats my goal now is to ALWAYS prevent myself from nuking myself...because losing 15 hands in a row is a very possible thing.

Any advice on what to do after losing 5 or 6 hands in a row is appreciated.. I dont wanna get in that hole again.
Click to expand...
I'll bet the casinos love you. I don't see how this progression could ever win anything, ever. It's designed to do nothing but lose vast amounts of money. At least with the Martingale system you will in theory come out ahead if you have an unlimited bankroll and no table limits. With your system you're betting more and more money during your losing streaks, but never enough to compensate for the money already lost. And then you're flat betting the table minimum durinjg your winning streaks. So basically what you're doing is rewarding your losing streak by ensuring that you'll still be well in the hole after breaking a losing streak and punishing the hands you win by only compensating yourself by the table minimum after breaking a such losing streak. This would be a total recipe for disaster if Blackjack was a game in which you won 50% of the hands, but since, as we all know, Blackjack is a game in which we will lose many more hands than we win, this progression is an outright catastrophe!
 
E

elkobar

Member
#6
#6
negative progression

mikeinjersey said:
Out of my 4 years of playing, I feel the safest negative progressive strategy is what i'm doing now.

I'll start out with $5000 on the $100 minimum table. (high limit area)

And go $100 , if I lose then
$100 again , if I lose then
$150 , if I lose then
$200 , if I lose then
$250 .....

If I win on any of those hands I go back to $100.

My problem is after I lose the 5th hand in a row, I always tell myself beforehand to either ask for a reshuffle or go to another table. But I never have the patience to do so....so i just take my chance & hang in there until I win a hand. (which is going to cost me eventually) I've even thought about going back to $100 after i've lost 5 hands in a row, just to play it safe...

So yeah, i'll be down $800 after losing 5 hands in a row. but as long as I restart my strategy & keep my patience i'll get it back. Its just soooo hard the temptation after losing 5 hands in a row to not bet higher.....any advice ?

I've lost 15 hands in a row on 2 occasions this month & i'm still a bit traumatized from it. (completely wiped me out...14G's down the drain) So thats my goal now is to ALWAYS prevent myself from nuking myself...because losing 15 hands in a row is a very possible thing.

Any advice on what to do after losing 5 or 6 hands in a row is appreciated.. I dont wanna get in that hole again.
Click to expand...
Hi
Mikeinjersey,
My view would be to reduce your bets to a manageable amount, like $25 minumum bet and do martingale correctly, you are not getting back your outlay when you win.
If you keep your bets low you will be able to handle losing runs better, and stay in the game longer; preservation of capital is of prime importance.
martingale is 1.2.4.8.16.32.etc. designed that any win will recover all the outlay plus 1 unit profit.
Also I would have a predetermined exit point, how many losses do you require to tell you that the cards are not in your favour?
staying in the game with a bank is the name of the game, is it not,?
Elkobar..
 
2

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
elkobar said:
Hi
Mikeinjersey,
My view would be to reduce your bets to a manageable amount, like $25 minumum bet and do martingale correctly, you are not getting back your outlay when you win.
If you keep your bets low you will be able to handle losing runs better, and stay in the game longer; preservation of capital is of prime importance.
martingale is 1.2.4.8.16.32.etc. designed that any win will recover all the outlay plus 1 unit profit.
Also I would have a predetermined exit point, how many losses do you require to tell you that the cards are not in your favour?
staying in the game with a bank is the name of the game, is it not,?
Elkobar..
Click to expand...
Exactly! Using the Martingale system and a $25 bet, after he loses his 15th hand in a row his next bet will be a very manageable $ 8,019,200 (320,768 X25), having lost only $8,019,195 to this point. Under Mike's system his next bet will be only $800 but he will be in for $6850 during this losing streak if my math is correct (and it is very late and I am very tired, but I trust my calculator).

Both are excellent systems. Will it be hemlock or aresenic?
 
M

mikeinjersey

Member
#8
#8
Gunsalute, relax... The only time I ever lose money is when losing 10 or more hands in a row. If I lose 5, or 6 , I always work my way back. 5 years experience here.

So I guess that is the better question of this thread... How to definitely prevent myself from losing 10 or more hands in a row. If possible i'd win a 100% of the time. (instead of the current 80% of the time)

Also I would have a predetermined exit point, how many losses do you require to tell you that the cards are not in your favour?
Click to expand...
Good point, I forgot to mention that I always & only always go for a $1000 or $2000 and then back out immediately. (sometimes even $500 if the cards are really rough) I always give the Dealer a $100 tip when i'm done & reach my goal. The most frustrating is when your at like $1800 ($200 from your goal) and all of a sudden you lose like 10 hands in a row. Its happened once in awhile.

EDIT: I just realized I didn't even answer your question. Like I mentioned below, its really difficult to determine as you could only lose like 5 hands in a row at times, yet the dealer could still win 90% of the hands in the show.

staying in the game with a bank is the name of the game, is it not,?
Click to expand...
It surely is. AS LONG as you prevent yourself or backup before you lose 10 or more hands in a row.

I've even tried playing 2 hands whenever I lose 3 or more hands in a row...to see if I could break the cycle. But its only had mixed results so far.

So yeah...that is my ONLY issue...having the willpower to backup before the Dealer goes on an insane streak.

Sometimes its not just the streaks either... maybe you'll only lose 5 hands in a row in the whole shoe....yet the dealer still wins 90% of the hands in the shoe. Thats another thing to worry about..
 
2

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
mikeinjersey said:
Gunsalute, relax... The only time I ever lose money is when losing 10 or more hands in a row. If I lose 5, or 6 , I always work my way back. 5 years experience here.

So I guess that is the better question of this thread... How to definitely prevent myself from losing 10 or more hands in a row. If possible i'd win a 100% of the time. (instead of the current 80% of the time)
Click to expand...

mikeinjersey said:
Out of my 4 years of playing, I feel the safest negative progressive strategy is what i'm doing now.
Click to expand...
Well which is it? It doesn't matter, because to be perfectly blunt I don't believe a word you're saying.

Under your system if you lose 5 hands in a row you'll be down $800. Your next bet will be $300, so if you win that bet you'll still be down $500. Then you're going to flat bet $100 which means you'll have to win 5 more hands consecutively (6 consecutive in total) to get back to even. And if you have losing streaks longer than 5 hands your losses will increase by an exponential factor while still only flat betting $100 to try to make up the differnce after winning a hand! The only way you're ever even going to break even is if you have many more winning streaks than losing streaks and have the duration of these winning streaks be longer than the duration of losing streaks. That simply is not very likely to happen if it ever happens at all.

There's a very simple way to keep from losing 10 hands in a row...don't play! Or quit after losing 1 hand, or 2 hands, or 3 hands in a row, etc. Other than that there is absolutely no way to guarantee you're not going to lose another hand. I would think a smart guy like you would be able to figure that much out.

Moderator, please lock this thread and/or delete it. Somebody could lose a fortune following this foolishness.
 
E

elkobar

Member
#10
#10
martingal progression

mikeinjersey said:
Gunsalute, relax... The only time I ever lose money is when losing 10 or more hands in a row. If I lose 5, or 6 , I always work my way back. 5 years experience here.

So I guess that is the better question of this thread... How to definitely prevent myself from losing 10 or more hands in a row. If possible i'd win a 100% of the time. (instead of the current 80% of the time)



Good point, I forgot to mention that I always & only always go for a $1000 or $2000 and then back out immediately. (sometimes even $500 if the cards are really rough) I always give the Dealer a $100 tip when i'm done & reach my goal. The most frustrating is when your at like $1800 ($200 from your goal) and all of a sudden you lose like 10 hands in a row. Its happened once in awhile.

EDIT: I just realized I didn't even answer your question. Like I mentioned below, its really difficult to determine as you could only lose like 5 hands in a row at times, yet the dealer could still win 90% of the hands in the show.



It surely is. AS LONG as you prevent yourself or backup before you lose 10 or more hands in a row.

I've even tried playing 2 hands whenever I lose 3 or more hands in a row...to see if I could break the cycle. But its only had mixed results so far.

So yeah...that is my ONLY issue...having the willpower to backup before the Dealer goes on an insane streak.

Sometimes its not just the streaks either... maybe you'll only lose 5 hands in a row in the whole shoe....yet the dealer still wins 90% of the hands in the shoe. Thats another thing to worry about..
Click to expand...
Hi
mikeinjersey,
yes I have to admit that it takes a lot of will power to have a game plan, but it is part of the discipline required to play and win.
I have mentioned many times, and have been criticized for it, but never the less it is how I play, and win , of couse not all the time, but my money management is raising my bet when I win and going back to the minumum when I lose, $10.15.20.25. and I exit play when I lose 4 hands in a row.
What you are doing is very dangerous, as all martingale or negative progressions are in the houses favour, when I reach $25 I stay on this amount until I lose, then go back to $10, while I am losing I am only betting $10, but if you want to play negative martingale then limit your losing hands to 4 or 5, and go for a walk, and come back when the cards are better, or go to another table if you can.
Elkobar.
 
M

mikeinjersey

Member
#11
#11
Under your system if you lose 5 hands in a row you'll be down $800. Your next bet will be $300, so if you win that bet you'll still be down $500. Then you're going to flat bet $100 which means you'll have to win 5 more hands consecutively (6 consecutive in total) to get back to even.
Click to expand...
Patience, daniel son..

You're right about the $800. But my next bet would not be $300. I would either leave or ask for a reshuffle. (although it is very tempting to go to $300)

You act like i'm going to lose 5 hands in a row every time. On average it happens about once an hour. Inbetween those times, there are many instances where i'll win 2 , 3 , 4 hands in a row. (which helps get back that $800)

The type of negative progression I use is just a type of cheap insurance to protect me incase the dealer goes on a hot streak.

If I just bet a $100 each hand win or lose.... it would be 50/50 forever. no gain but probably at-least a small loss over time.

I'm already thinking about how to optimize my strategy more for tomorrow morning... I think I already know what you'll say though.. :rolleyes:

Occasionally i'll even go $150 after I win a hand. depending on how the 'flow' is feeling.


elkobar said:
Hi
mikeinjersey,
yes I have to admit that it takes a lot of will power to have a game plan, but it is part of the discipline required to play and win.
I have mentioned many times, and have been criticized for it, but never the less it is how I play, and win , of couse not all the time, but my money management is raising my bet when I win and going back to the minumum when I lose, $10.15.20.25. and I exit play when I lose 4 hands in a row.
What you are doing is very dangerous, as all martingale or negative progressions are in the houses favour, when I reach $25 I stay on this amount until I lose, then go back to $10, while I am losing I am only betting $10, but if you want to play negative martingale then limit your losing hands to 4 or 5, and go for a walk, and come back when the cards are better, or go to another table if you can.
Elkobar.
Click to expand...
Its very interesting, I see people doing the same thing every day. Most people actually play like you. (betting more after you win) But if you think about it , the shuffle actually has to be pretty lopsided for you to consistently win more than 2 hands in a row. On average its 50/50 win or lose. So betting more as you win I feel is not a winning strategy in the long run. But your smart in a way for not going - $10 , $20 , $30 , $40 .... like I see most people do. (in which their usually out of money within 15 minutes) You nickel & dime it the same way I do.

Has it been successful for you this way ? for how long have you been playing? were using the same strategy but in an opposite manner. :)
 
picasso

picasso

Banned
#12
#12
When I build a new progression I have the following criteria's:

-It has to be cheap (just in case :eek:)

-It's always a negative progression (best by test)

-It has to withstand 10-15-20++ losses in a row, all before reaching table limit and/or breaking your bankroll



The rest is creative insights and/or mathematics
 
C

Coach R

Well-Known Member
#13
#13
mikeinjersey said:
Out of my 4 years of playing, I feel the safest negative progressive strategy is what i'm doing now.

I'll start out with $5000 on the $100 minimum table. (high limit area)

And go $100 , if I lose then
$100 again , if I lose then
$150 , if I lose then
$200 , if I lose then
$250 .....

If I win on any of those hands I go back to $100.

My problem is after I lose the 5th hand in a row, I always tell myself beforehand to either ask for a reshuffle or go to another table. But I never have the patience to do so....so i just take my chance & hang in there until I win a hand. (which is going to cost me eventually) I've even thought about going back to $100 after i've lost 5 hands in a row, just to play it safe...

So yeah, i'll be down $800 after losing 5 hands in a row. but as long as I restart my strategy & keep my patience i'll get it back. Its just soooo hard the temptation after losing 5 hands in a row to not bet higher.....any advice ?

I've lost 15 hands in a row on 2 occasions this month & i'm still a bit traumatized from it. (completely wiped me out...14G's down the drain) So thats my goal now is to ALWAYS prevent myself from nuking myself...because losing 15 hands in a row is a very possible thing.

Any advice on what to do after losing 5 or 6 hands in a row is appreciated.. I dont wanna get in that hole again.
Click to expand...
????????? That's the worst betting strat.I have seen in a while. Do the math, you lose your first six hands, You must then win 9 in a row to make 1/2 of a unit profit? and that's assuming you don't lose somewhere in the middle of that. You would be better of flat betting, you would be 3 units up in the same W/L pattern. You can't adjust your bet by what you did on the prev. hand because you never know what the next hand brings (unless you count). It's like playing the stock market, you look at yesterdays up and down graft, and try to guess todays pattern. If you count cards very well, you dont look at what you should have done, you see the "Graft" as you are in it and know what has a good chance of happening
 
M

mikeinjersey

Member
#14
#14
7.) In positive count's my bets start with 1,2,3,2,1 and do not deviate from that.
Click to expand...
So when your winning , your going 1,2,3,2,1 ....or when your on a losing streak ?



picasso said:
When I build a new progression I have the following criteria's:

-It has to withstand 10-15-20++ losses in a row, all before reaching table limit and/or breaking your bankroll
Click to expand...
how do you have a progression strategy that can withstand losing 15 hands in a row ? That i'd love to see.
 
M

mikeinjersey

Member
#15
#15
wow, I had an awesome session today. About our 4th shoe in... Almost all the cards in the beginning were low cards... so without even needing to count, I knew I was in store for an epic shoe. (it was only me vs. the dealer)

I had 20's galore ! Won 11 hands in a row & it ended up being the best shoe of the day.

I find counting is too hard to keep up with in general...because our dealers move quick as heck. So I just keep an eye on the pattern of high & low cards...once I have a general idea where were at, I start betting higher.

If it seems 50/50 the whole way....I dont even mess around.
 
2

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
#16
#16
mikeinjersey said:
Patience, daniel son..

You're right about the $800. But my next bet would not be $300. I would either leave or ask for a reshuffle. (although it is very tempting to go to $300)

If you leave you're still down $800. If you ask for a reshuffle you're still down $800. What good is a reshuffle going to do? Unless you can accurately shuffle track and/or Ace-sequence it won't do you any good at all because you still won't know if you're going to win the next hand or not or if it's likely that high cards will be forthcoming. This has to be the worst strategy ever conceived.
Click to expand...
You act like i'm going to lose 5 hands in a row every time. On average it happens about once an hour. Inbetween those times, there are many instances where i'll win 2 , 3 , 4 hands in a row. (which helps get back that $800)

Sure, but you seem to be forgetting that you're also likely to have an even greater number of instances where you're going to lose 2, 3 or 4 hands in a row! And you'll be betting much more and losing much more during these losing streaks than you will gain by flat betting $100 during a similar sized winning streak. This has got to be the worst strategy ever conceived.
Click to expand...
The type of negative progression I use is just a type of cheap insurance to protect me incase the dealer goes on a hot streak.

Wrong again! When the dealer gets on a hot streak you're going to lose an even greater amount every hand after the 2nd loss. When you get on a hot streak you're only going to win $100 each hand. This has got to be the worst strategy ever conceived.
Click to expand...
If I just bet a $100 each hand win or lose.... it would be 50/50 forever. no gain but probably at-least a small loss over time.

Wrong again! You're not going to win 50% of the hands in the long run. If you play perfect basic strategy you'll win about 42-43%. Blackjacks, splits and double downs will drop the house edge to well below 1%, but you'll still be at a disadvantage, which will mount into considerable losses over time. Increasing your bets during losing streaks and flat betting during winning streaks will not overcome the house edge but rather will add to the house edge considerably! If you have the same number of winning and losing streaks you're going to lose significantly more money than you're going to gain back by flat betting. This has got to be the worst strategy ever conceived!
Click to expand...

This has got to be the worst strategy ever conceived.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
 
picasso

picasso

Banned
#17
#17
how do you have a progression strategy that can withstand losing 15 hands in a row ? That i'd love to see.
Click to expand...
I shall provide a simple progression, this one 12 hands:

10-10-11-12-14-18-26-42-74-138-266-522

Any win and the player loses less than the flat better. I can do much better than that one.
 
2

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
#18
#18
vking58 said:
@Mike and picasso


We do not want to confuse him now! We both know he is a novice! No disrespect on your part! Do you really think he has the BR or the EMOTIONAL competency to pull that one off! With that progression alone I humbly respect your play!
As you are a senior member wouldn't it be nice, to first suggest learning basic perfectly first, since he obviously doesn't know it, then learning this progression and playing only when he has saved enough to start with a BR OF 5200!

@ MIKE: Anyways my Rather lengthy advice is that you learn basic perfectly before touching another card or playing another second in the casino.
Then play for a minimum of 240 hours(ex. 2 hours a day 120 days), always brushing up on correct basic play's! Doing that WILL bring you close to playing even with the dealer!
Then sit with a deck, forgetting playing the game, and learn the value of each card in the counting system u choose! (I suggest the KO system or the +/- system).
Then apply the running count as you go through each deck; still not playing a game!
Then pick three stop points after you have learned to keep proper count and at each stop point take the RC and get your true count by dividing by how much of the deck remains! Do the same for 2 decks, 4 decks, and 8 decks! You will then be ready to Play blackjack as your sole source of income!

There is also the fab4 and illustrious 18 indices but play the way indicated for a while Mike unless at this point u cant give correct basic play, can keep perfect track of the running count, and can more times than none get the true count! Also know how to bet according to the true count!

It was probably a total waste of my time; because if every listened to advice such as this, the game of blackjack would not exist and I would not be here right now! I am probably speaking into the wind Mike; in one ear and out the other! I just couldn't let you play the way you have been playing and allow you to lose ALL YOUR MONEY AS YOU MOST CERTAINLY WILL, if you continue to play the way you do! Maybe you will take heed maybe you wont only time will tell, as much more lies could get you barred and your thread deleted!

Good luck, As you will most certainly need it!
Click to expand...
Yeah, do you really think he's going to attempt to do something that actually takes a little time and effort? He's just looking for something quick and easy. It obviously dosn't matter to him much what the results are going to be...he'll just make up whatever he needs to satisfy his own ego and save face here no matter how big a loss he's actually taking on.

My concern is that I think he actually knows what's what and what isn't and he's just spreading false information here to try lure some newby into making a horrible mistake. There a some sickos who get off on that kind of stuff. Notice that whenever we question a part of his strategy that can't possibly work he'll change the details slightly. I believe he's had a history of this with prior posts.

Hey Mike I've got a "progression" for you that's a sure thing. When your state lotto or Powerball or some similar type game hits a certain level all you have to do is get a boatload of money and play every possible combination. You'll be sure to win...of course you may be sharing your winnings with several others who also had the winning numbers but that's what makes this a "negative" progression!
 
psyduck

psyduck

Well-Known Member
#19
#19
The following is the safest progression I use when NOT counting:

start with 1 unit
if win, keep betting 1 unit
if lose, bet 0 unit
keep betting 0 unit win or lose.

It has never cost me a lot of money.
 
flyingwind

flyingwind

Well-Known Member
#20
#20
psyduck said:
The following is the safest progression I use when NOT counting:

start with 1 unit
if win, keep betting 1 unit
if lose, bet 0 unit
keep betting 0 unit win or lose.

It has never cost me a lot of money.
Click to expand...
lmao

I would use this progression for cover, but I don't think it'll work. In fact, it might bring the heat on faster.
 
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