Betting on three hands per round

Anybody have a way of figuring out hourly gain and risk of ruin when betting on 3 hands per round?? Can't figure it out using CVCX (can use it only to figure out 2 hands per round)

Here are the game conditions:

Count system: Complete Hi-Lo using Ill18
Decks: 6
Rules: H17 DAS
Hands per Hour: 150
Spread: (from $25 to $500, so 20)
Penetration: 52
Bankroll: $100,000

Anybody able to figure out the optimal hourly gain with a risk of ruin under 5%, all while betting on 3 hands per round and given the above conditions.



That said, I inserted the above information into the cvcx online viewer along with a risk of ruin of .9% (betting on 2 hands per a round, simplified bets) and managed to came up with an hourly gain of $290 using this betting strategy:

True Count Optimal Bet
<=0 2 x $25
1 2 x $50
2 2 x $125
3 2 x $300
>=4 2 x $500

CVX should be able to sim 3hand max bets. I like the max bet topping out at 1% divided between two hands.

Anyone do this man's sim? zg

How about this one:

<2- 3 X $25 (You are still -EV at TC+1 in this game!)

2- 3 X $200
3- 3 X $350
4- 3 X $500

Win rate @ 150 hands per hour= $497.72

IBA%= 1.179%

SCORE= 50.94

SD/100= 186.0

N0= 19629

Absolute RoR with a 4000 unit BR= 4.61%

If he tanks to 50k and cuts his betsize to half that would bring his overall RoR to what, 1%? zg

No, to 4.61%! Betting unit/bankroll remains constant for constant RoR.

Then he needs to be clear that he is constantly resizing his bets, correct? zg

No, absolute RoR does not account for a bet size change. It's the probability that a person who plays a certain game always at a certain betting level will ever go bankrupt.

But if he knows ahead of time that he will be cutting back his bets if his bankroll drops then he will have a smaller ROR to start with. I don’t remember Schlesinger’s exact calculation off hand. I’ll have to look it up when I get home. He had a formula for adjusting the initial ROR if the player accepts a bet resize at a 50% bankroll drop.

-Sonny-

For DW's purpose he should resize at 75% and 50% tank. This will smooth things a bit and further reduce RoR.

On the other hand he should NOT resize upwards untill at least +50%. zg

Ahhh ok, thanks for info, you weren't able to use CVCX to figure this out, were you?

According to the CVCX online viewer, you're EV is +.15% at a true count of +1, using Hi-Lo with Ill18 Fab4.... oh yeah, whatever you simulator you ran maybe you unchecked the ability to split up to four times, aces as well. In this game you can split four times, aces included (sorry for not including that tidbit )

I would like someone else to verify his RoR before he aces out and bets this kind of money.

Yes CVCX can do three hands. zg

So here it is: To get your adjusted ROR you just multiply your original ROR by its square root. So if you start with a 13% ROR then there is a Sqrt(.13) = 36% chance that you will lose half of it. If you plan to cut your bets in half at that point to maintain that ROR then your starting ROR was only 0.13 * 0.36 = 4.7%. Pretty neat, huh?

-Sonny-

So, IF someone can verify the 1-60u spread with 5% RoR described by AMonk above, the adjusted RoR with 50%-tank resize would drop to under 2%.

BUT the betting strategy would need to be modified with the resize, AND AM's variation is a Wonger, I believe. zg

You were right, the program known as "CVData" will let me do calculations for when you bet 3 hands per round. But I only have the demo version (it came with another CVCX product I purchased). It won't let you run accurate simulations on the demo version of "CVData" or has anybody tried it before.

UPDATE: Ok "CVData" is the product I should have purchased, I purchased "CVCX" cause I thought it would serve all my needs (ala being able to calculate 3 handed play and other useful crap). FINAL ANALYSIS: DOH!!!!!!!


Well anyway..... anybody who has CVDATA could you calculate a RoR under 5% along with the $/HR for the following updated conditions, taking into account that you can bet on 3 hands per round. (I greatly appreciate the information that you provided earlier for 6 decks Amonkey, unfortunately it seems the place I am interested has 4 deckers only on the $25-$500 tables, not 6 deckers so it seems).




Here are the game conditions:

Count system: Complete Hi-Lo using Ill18
Decks: 4
Rules: H17 DAS
Hands per Hour: 150
Spread: (from $25 to $500, so 20)
Penetration: 60
Bankroll: $100,000

Anybody able to figure out the optimal hourly gain with a risk of ruin under 5%, all while betting on 3 hands per round and given the above conditions.

And, to answer your question Zengrifter, should a major negative fluctuation occur (bankroll dips down to $80k) I would update my betting strategy.



I really do appreciate all the help that has been provided so far on this thread and I don't expect anybody to go out of their way for me in figuring out this information, but for anybody who does, I just hope I can reciprocate in the future