Soft18 update (Sonny, Harman, Kasi et al.)

#1
This is an update for those of you who read or commented in my initial thread asking for assistance. Thank you all, and my apologies for my lack of response thus far- I am a stranger to forum ettiquette, and I will avoid such rudeness in the future. Much respect to all of you.

Over the last four trips we have had, we have made back much of our deficit- from being down ~$2,600 to now being down just a little over $1,000. And we have been playing only a fraction of the time we spent in previous trips. During our first trips we were playing 20-24 hours of actual play time in a weekend. The last four trips we have done have been mere 4-6 hour shifts.

After reading many of your comments we began to seriously question the quality of the blackjack rules offered at the casino we normally frequent. We found an alternative casino within driving range with slightly better rules (same, but allow re-splitting of Aces) and far greater penetration. Penetration is always 5 to 5 1/2 decks at the new casino.

Rules and background from the original thread can be found here:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=10053

We still do visit the old casino, but now we strictly wong in to tables there. Since playing at the old casino with 100% backcounting, and playing at the new casino with far better penetration, we have had no trouble making money. We have made back over half of our losses in roughly the amount of time of one of our losing trips from the past.

We have not changed our betting ramp, but we have dropped any semblance of spotter/BP play for the time being. At some point in the future (with a larger bankroll), we will re-assess the spotter/BP model and decide if it is an appropriate option for us. We have been playing EMFH and enjoying consistent success so far.

Also in the time since our last losing run, we have lost one member who moved away. We are now, for the time being, a two man team (though we have two other players in training who are not yet ready). While it is easy to look at the removal of one of our players as an explanation for cutting losses, I have the utmost confidence in his counting/playing abilities. Individually he was a profitable player, and I look forward to any opportunity to play with him again in the future.

So far in our two man team, typically we have experienced one player ending the run near even (maybe slightly up or down) and the other is up several hundred dollars.

This is more toward the consistency I was hoping to expect, though I now am much more aware of the type of variance we can and should expect in the future, regardless of our improved play.

I have to run back to work, but I wanted to post this as an update and a thank you to all of you for your help. I am certain we would have continued to bleed chips without your help and criticism. I'd be happy to answer and respond to any questions or comments you all have. It's the least I can do- I'm sure I will need your aid again in the future.
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#2
Glad you found a better game.

How many player-hours do you think have elapsed in your recent win streak?

It might just bbe luck (it probably is).
 
#4
callipygian said:
On a 6-deck shoe? :eek:
Yep! It's insane. They cut to the floor. I once saw a cut that I am almost positive left only 20 cards left (I am normally very accurate with my estimation)

EasyRhino said:
Glad you found a better game.

How many player-hours do you think have elapsed in your recent win streak?

It might just bbe luck (it probably is).
We have now logged very many more winning runs than losing runs. We have been very consistent since our revisions to our play environment. I do not believe that it is luck.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#5
soft18 said:
I do not believe that it is luck.
You know me lol.

If you can measure your "luck", just even maybe in some broad but objective way, maybe even by different game type since it sounds like maybe you guys still do a 6D game or sometimes back-count some other game?, that's cool. Hopefully you know what you expect to win from whatever you're doing, maybe after each "session" or whatever?

Glad you're back and having some success! And best of luck lol.
 

callipygian

Well-Known Member
#6
soft18 said:
I do not believe that it is luck.
You mean you do not believe that it is just luck. Luck is always a factor - the question is whether you're winning by having a lot of luck, or winning by having skill plus a little luck.

:grin:
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#7
callipygian said:
You mean you do not believe that it is just luck. Luck is always a factor - the question is whether you're winning by having a lot of luck, or winning by having skill plus a little luck.

:grin:
check out weekend warriors. luck is definately a factor. for the anecdotal postings it's almost the only factor.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=86224&postcount=141
making sense of luck now that's a question. :confused:

i love this graph though. it's if only through poetic liscense a thousand words about luck and ev.
 

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