The purpose of this article is to give people interested in card counting an introduction about the subject. This is hardly a comprehensive presentation of the subject. There are many good books that cover the topic thoroughly that the reader is highly encouraged to read. My personal favorites are: Stanford Wong’s Professional Blackjack, Don Schlesinger’s Blackjack Attack and Peter Griffin’s Theory of Blackjack.
This article is my property and that of blackjackinfo.com, feel free to use it and post it on other websites, but please give the proper credit and do not assume authorship.
I. What you need to know before learning card counting:
a. Clearing up all the Myths
It is very important to get out of your head all the myths that have plagued card counting in blackjack such as : winning all the time or most of the time when the count is favorable, getting super rich overnight, you have to be a mathematical genius or have excellent photographic memory, making a steady weekly income at the tables. You have to clear all this non-sense out of your head if you wish to become a successful card counter otherwise you will be very disappointed.
b. Knowing the different Blackjack rules and their corresponding favorability
I am not talking in here about the different side games or bonuses that the different casinos offer(even though you will find that some side games can be very profitable) but the different playing rules such as: Dealer stand on soft 17 or hits soft 17, late surrender, double after split, resplit… It is also important to know how valuable certain rules are for instance if you find a casino that offers the early surrender rule, you should walk up to the casino commissioner and kiss his hands and feet!
c. Know your basic strategy
It is very sad and unfortunate when I see people who want to learn how to count cards without knowing their basic strategy. You must know the basic strategy for the game you are playing. Yes, there is no universal basic strategy, basic strategies change depending on the rules of the game you chose to play. You need to practice and practice your basic strategy until you become an automated robot that hardly makes any errors.
d. Learn Some Basic Statistics
A basic knowledge of statistical terms is a must if you are serious about becoming a card counter terms like: expectation value or average, standard deviation, variance, probability. You will soon learn hopefully that blackjack even with the best possible playing strategies is a game with very large variance (a measure of statistical dispersion) meaning your short term results can show very large fluctuations in terms of winning or losing.
e. Invest in a Blackjack Simulator
As a card counter you will find that a major task that you will have to do is to scout for good games, you certainly don’t want to play those horrible 6:5 BJ payoffs or an ugly 8 deck dealer hits soft 17 game. You shouldn’t also take people’s word about how good of a game a casino is offering unless you trust them and they back their statements with simulations. So you will find yourself often in a need to run simulations for games you find or for games that other people have told you about/ For that matter, having a blackjack simulator handy is really important. In my opinion, the best simulator is QFIT’s CVData and CVCX.
II. Card Counting Basics
a. Choosing you counting system
The title is pretty indicative of that fact that there is a variety of card counting systems. There are balanced (total running count of one deck is zero) and unbalanced count (total running is different than zero). There are level I, level II counts and level III counts (where the level is indicative of the highest point card value). For a list of the most popular counting systems:
http://www.qfit.com/card-counting.htm
For pitch games(1 or 2 decks) it is important to chose a count with a high playing efficiency, while for shoe games a count betting correlation is more important. In the past more difficult counting systems were preferred but now the simpler ones are more popular. There is a popular myth within the card counting community that if one uses a more popular count such as hi-low or KO, there is a higher chance that he/she will be detected by the casino. In reality it doesn’t really matter what counting system as long as it is a good system!!
From this point on, unless indicated otherwise the card counting discussion will be pertinent to the hi-low system(my personal favorite )a level I balanced system.
b. Practicing counting
There are many ways and many different resources about learning how to count cards so I won’t go into too much details, you need to practice, practice and practice until you can count 1 deck in less than 25 seconds. This is one part of the task; the other part of the task is to train yourself to never lose the count in the loud noisy casino environment, so practice counting while watching TV, having dinner at a restaurant, and while your wife is nagging you. Some people use their chips, some people use their fingers, some people use the number of unbuttoned buttons on the cocktail girl’s shirt, but remember never lose the count!!!
c. Running and True Count
The count mentioned in section b is called the running count. It is basically the total sum of the point values of the card dealt. For a balanced count, the running count is insufficient to determine the deck or shoe favorability that is why it is necessary to convert running count to true count. True count is equal to running count divided by the number of unplayed decks. The number of unplayed decks is calculated by estimating the number of decks played from the discard tray and subtracting that number from the shoe size.
d. True Count is not “Truly” a count!!!
This might be a shock to a lot of people but the true count is not really a count it is a density, a concentration, after all it is a ratio of two quantities. Another shocker point: it is common belief that the player’s advantage at positive true count stems from the fact that the true count is bound to decrease. This statement is totally erroneous. The player’s advantage at positive true counts comes from the fact that at any given moment there is a higher probability that the next card drawn will be a high card thus making your doubles and splits (the money making hands) more successful, increased probability of getting a blackjack or 20, dealer will bust stiff hands more often (does not necessarily mean he will bust more often). For the hi-low system each true count unit is worth about +0.5% increase for you expectation value for a typical blackjack game.
e. Choosing your Betting Strategy
There is a lot of material about betting strategies to cover in one paragraph, so I am just going to talk about the basics. The two most common betting strategies are: The play-all and back-counting.
In play-all you play through all negative and positive counts and place your bets according to the true count i.e (your advantage) this technique is called spreading your bet. When playing-all you normally go for the highest possible spread without getting booted out of the casino, pitch games typically require a smaller bet spread than shoe games.
In back-counting, you sit out count the shoe and then when TC>0 (normally +2) you sit in or “wong in” and you leave the table or “wong out” when TC<0 (normally -1).
Choosing between play-all or back-counting will depend on several factors such as: casino playing conditions (a crowded casino is obviously no good for back-counting), your personal preferences, your cover plays, your bankroll. For instance, if you just started card counting and trying to build-up your bankroll, back-counting would be better since you play fewer hands in a hour and the variance is significantly smaller.
f. Playing Strategy: Deviations from Basic Strategy
Most counting systems will offer a set of index tables for playing decisions. An index is a value that is compared to the true count in order to make a playing decision that may differ from basic strategy. For instance, basic strategy says that the player should hit his hard 16 vs the dealer’s 10 (in case surrender is not available), but it turns out it becomes more favorable for the player to stand when the true count is >0. And while basic strategies tells us to never take insurance it turns out that taking insurance is a profitable bet when true count is ≥ 3.
It happened that some indices are more valuable than other indices because they are used more frequently. A set of very popular indices for positive true counts called the illustrious 18, supplemented by the fabulous 4 (whenever surrender is available) are commonly used. If you are a play-all type of player you will get about 0.15% increase in your expectation value if you use the full indices for the hi-low system.
In Part II, i will discuss: Scouting and choosing your game, team vs solo play, money management, and provide an extensive glossary of blackjack terms
This article is my property and that of blackjackinfo.com, feel free to use it and post it on other websites, but please give the proper credit and do not assume authorship.
I. What you need to know before learning card counting:
a. Clearing up all the Myths
It is very important to get out of your head all the myths that have plagued card counting in blackjack such as : winning all the time or most of the time when the count is favorable, getting super rich overnight, you have to be a mathematical genius or have excellent photographic memory, making a steady weekly income at the tables. You have to clear all this non-sense out of your head if you wish to become a successful card counter otherwise you will be very disappointed.
b. Knowing the different Blackjack rules and their corresponding favorability
I am not talking in here about the different side games or bonuses that the different casinos offer(even though you will find that some side games can be very profitable) but the different playing rules such as: Dealer stand on soft 17 or hits soft 17, late surrender, double after split, resplit… It is also important to know how valuable certain rules are for instance if you find a casino that offers the early surrender rule, you should walk up to the casino commissioner and kiss his hands and feet!
c. Know your basic strategy
It is very sad and unfortunate when I see people who want to learn how to count cards without knowing their basic strategy. You must know the basic strategy for the game you are playing. Yes, there is no universal basic strategy, basic strategies change depending on the rules of the game you chose to play. You need to practice and practice your basic strategy until you become an automated robot that hardly makes any errors.
d. Learn Some Basic Statistics
A basic knowledge of statistical terms is a must if you are serious about becoming a card counter terms like: expectation value or average, standard deviation, variance, probability. You will soon learn hopefully that blackjack even with the best possible playing strategies is a game with very large variance (a measure of statistical dispersion) meaning your short term results can show very large fluctuations in terms of winning or losing.
e. Invest in a Blackjack Simulator
As a card counter you will find that a major task that you will have to do is to scout for good games, you certainly don’t want to play those horrible 6:5 BJ payoffs or an ugly 8 deck dealer hits soft 17 game. You shouldn’t also take people’s word about how good of a game a casino is offering unless you trust them and they back their statements with simulations. So you will find yourself often in a need to run simulations for games you find or for games that other people have told you about/ For that matter, having a blackjack simulator handy is really important. In my opinion, the best simulator is QFIT’s CVData and CVCX.
II. Card Counting Basics
a. Choosing you counting system
The title is pretty indicative of that fact that there is a variety of card counting systems. There are balanced (total running count of one deck is zero) and unbalanced count (total running is different than zero). There are level I, level II counts and level III counts (where the level is indicative of the highest point card value). For a list of the most popular counting systems:
http://www.qfit.com/card-counting.htm
For pitch games(1 or 2 decks) it is important to chose a count with a high playing efficiency, while for shoe games a count betting correlation is more important. In the past more difficult counting systems were preferred but now the simpler ones are more popular. There is a popular myth within the card counting community that if one uses a more popular count such as hi-low or KO, there is a higher chance that he/she will be detected by the casino. In reality it doesn’t really matter what counting system as long as it is a good system!!
From this point on, unless indicated otherwise the card counting discussion will be pertinent to the hi-low system(my personal favorite )a level I balanced system.
b. Practicing counting
There are many ways and many different resources about learning how to count cards so I won’t go into too much details, you need to practice, practice and practice until you can count 1 deck in less than 25 seconds. This is one part of the task; the other part of the task is to train yourself to never lose the count in the loud noisy casino environment, so practice counting while watching TV, having dinner at a restaurant, and while your wife is nagging you. Some people use their chips, some people use their fingers, some people use the number of unbuttoned buttons on the cocktail girl’s shirt, but remember never lose the count!!!
c. Running and True Count
The count mentioned in section b is called the running count. It is basically the total sum of the point values of the card dealt. For a balanced count, the running count is insufficient to determine the deck or shoe favorability that is why it is necessary to convert running count to true count. True count is equal to running count divided by the number of unplayed decks. The number of unplayed decks is calculated by estimating the number of decks played from the discard tray and subtracting that number from the shoe size.
d. True Count is not “Truly” a count!!!
This might be a shock to a lot of people but the true count is not really a count it is a density, a concentration, after all it is a ratio of two quantities. Another shocker point: it is common belief that the player’s advantage at positive true count stems from the fact that the true count is bound to decrease. This statement is totally erroneous. The player’s advantage at positive true counts comes from the fact that at any given moment there is a higher probability that the next card drawn will be a high card thus making your doubles and splits (the money making hands) more successful, increased probability of getting a blackjack or 20, dealer will bust stiff hands more often (does not necessarily mean he will bust more often). For the hi-low system each true count unit is worth about +0.5% increase for you expectation value for a typical blackjack game.
e. Choosing your Betting Strategy
There is a lot of material about betting strategies to cover in one paragraph, so I am just going to talk about the basics. The two most common betting strategies are: The play-all and back-counting.
In play-all you play through all negative and positive counts and place your bets according to the true count i.e (your advantage) this technique is called spreading your bet. When playing-all you normally go for the highest possible spread without getting booted out of the casino, pitch games typically require a smaller bet spread than shoe games.
In back-counting, you sit out count the shoe and then when TC>0 (normally +2) you sit in or “wong in” and you leave the table or “wong out” when TC<0 (normally -1).
Choosing between play-all or back-counting will depend on several factors such as: casino playing conditions (a crowded casino is obviously no good for back-counting), your personal preferences, your cover plays, your bankroll. For instance, if you just started card counting and trying to build-up your bankroll, back-counting would be better since you play fewer hands in a hour and the variance is significantly smaller.
f. Playing Strategy: Deviations from Basic Strategy
Most counting systems will offer a set of index tables for playing decisions. An index is a value that is compared to the true count in order to make a playing decision that may differ from basic strategy. For instance, basic strategy says that the player should hit his hard 16 vs the dealer’s 10 (in case surrender is not available), but it turns out it becomes more favorable for the player to stand when the true count is >0. And while basic strategies tells us to never take insurance it turns out that taking insurance is a profitable bet when true count is ≥ 3.
It happened that some indices are more valuable than other indices because they are used more frequently. A set of very popular indices for positive true counts called the illustrious 18, supplemented by the fabulous 4 (whenever surrender is available) are commonly used. If you are a play-all type of player you will get about 0.15% increase in your expectation value if you use the full indices for the hi-low system.
In Part II, i will discuss: Scouting and choosing your game, team vs solo play, money management, and provide an extensive glossary of blackjack terms
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