risk intelligence

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#1
Dr. Dylan Evans has come up with a premise that there exists amongst the various forms of intelligence, a type of intelligence that he has named 'Risk Intelligence'.

maybe, just me, but as a gambler i find this concept a fascinating one indeed, not just in light of the subject of gambling but in light of the planets current economic malaise, not to mention other perilous aspects that we face.

take a look and listen through the following links if you'd like to gain some insight into what the concept is.
http://www.dylan.org.uk/
http://gaming.unlv.edu/audio/010_evans.mp3

i'll just add Nassim Taleb's link as well, as he has written on similar issues as well, as how this sort of thing relates to gambling in casinos and mankind's functioning in the economic world.
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/

Dr. Evans has categorized types of gamblers. roughly it goes like this, compulsive gamblers, recreational gamblers and professional gamblers.

i consider myself in the recreational gambler category with one exception, that being i'm in it to make a gain, or at least not lose while enjoying the activity.
that being the case i borrow from the techniques of the pro's while not adhering strictly to their methods. i try and employ those techniques and that knowledge in a 'street smart' way. this is my humble attempt at using 'risk intelligence' on the fly so to speak when dealing with casinos.

that all said, i think it would be wise for Dr. Evans to consider the distinction between the world inside the walls of casinos and the world out side of those walls, at least to a certain extent. i'd recommend that in the sense that Taleb postulates the 'ludic realm' (inside casino's) and the realm of the real world (the world outside of casino walls).
this is i believe an important distinction when considering the idea of 'risk intelligence' even if it is likely that shades of the 'ludic realm' and shades of the realm of the real world probably do blend in certain regards.
just me maybe but i suspect neglecting 'osmosis' between the two realms can be a pitfall for those trying to employ purely mathematical measures when dealing with risk in either realm.

point being, perhaps there really is such a function such as 'risk intelligence' and perhaps the lack of use of it can cause gamblers and investors who rely purely on mathematics, perilous prospects that mathematics isn't capable of dealing with.
i find it interesting that both Evans and Taleb mention the concept of 'street smart' capabilities. a nebulous term perhaps but a term that lends light upon the idea that when dealing with uncertainty and risk there may be more of a wise tactic to take than mathematics alone.
success in gambling and investing alone may not be the best indicator of good tactics for dealing with uncertainty and risk. reason being is we can be blinded by the spectacular show that success presents while we are unaware of the 'graveyard' in which those who have succeeded and then failed find themselves currently pushing up daises. lol.

just maybe we as products of the evolution of the universe, a universe that seems to have spawned from primordial random elements and events that are fundamentally underpinned with uncertainty, living beings that have always had to deal with uncertainty and risk through out the ages, just maybe we all have some degree of 'risk intelligence'.

what ever i'm sure interested in developing the use of it.
 

daddybo

Well-Known Member
#2
sagefr0g said:
i find it interesting that both Evans and Taleb mention the concept of 'street smart' capabilities. a nebulous term perhaps but a term that lends light upon the idea that when dealing with uncertainty and risk there may be more of a wise tactic to take than mathematics alone.
it.
Careful Sage... This kind of talk may be considered heresy by some! But I tend to agree there are situations where departures from pure math are the better play. Factual information trumps probablilty every time. (like knowing the holecard)
-db
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#3
daddybo said:
Careful Sage... This kind of talk may be considered heresy by the some!
why do you think i posted in voodoo? :laugh:
But I tend to agree there are situations where departures from pure math are the better play.
i didn't mean to really rag on math so much, heck it's a magnificent tool.
thing is you better be sure you've thought of all the questions needed to be addressed when dealing with uncertainty and risk.
point being, think, then think again. then wonder if your right because anytime uncertainty is a factor, the truth is there are things one has to admit that one doesn't know.
how to deal with what one doesn't know is i think a part of what 'risk intelligence' would deal with.
Factual information trumps probablilty every time. (like knowing the holecard)
-db
excellent example, imho.
i guess probability trumps not knowing.
and knowing you don't know trumps thinking you know when you really don't.
:confused:
 

daddybo

Well-Known Member
#4
sagefr0g said:
i guess probability trumps not knowing.
and knowing you don't know trumps thinking you know when you really don't.
:confused:
Well said... except sometimes ignorance is bliss. :laugh: (like when the guy beside you that is the worst player you have ever seen wins $20K)
 

bjcount

Well-Known Member
#5
sagefr0g said:
Dr. Dylan Evans has come up with a premise that there exists amongst the various forms of intelligence, a type of intelligence that he has named 'Risk Intelligence'.

maybe, just me, but as a gambler i find this concept a fascinating one indeed, not just in light of the subject of gambling but in light of the planets current economic malaise, not to mention other perilous aspects that we face.

take a look and listen through the following links if you'd like to gain some insight into what the concept is.
http://www.dylan.org.uk/
http://gaming.unlv.edu/audio/010_evans.mp3

i'll just add Nassim Taleb's link as well, as he has written on similar issues as well, as how this sort of thing relates to gambling in casinos and mankind's functioning in the economic world.
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/

Dr. Evans has categorized types of gamblers. roughly it goes like this, compulsive gamblers, recreational gamblers and professional gamblers.

i consider myself in the recreational gambler category with one exception, that being i'm in it to make a gain, or at least not lose while enjoying the activity.
that being the case i borrow from the techniques of the pro's while not adhering strictly to their methods. i try and employ those techniques and that knowledge in a 'street smart' way. this is my humble attempt at using 'risk intelligence' on the fly so to speak when dealing with casinos.

that all said, i think it would be wise for Dr. Evans to consider the distinction between the world inside the walls of casinos and the world out side of those walls, at least to a certain extent. i'd recommend that in the sense that Taleb postulates the 'ludic realm' (inside casino's) and the realm of the real world (the world outside of casino walls).
this is i believe an important distinction when considering the idea of 'risk intelligence' even if it is likely that shades of the 'ludic realm' and shades of the realm of the real world probably do blend in certain regards.
just me maybe but i suspect neglecting 'osmosis' between the two realms can be a pitfall for those trying to employ purely mathematical measures when dealing with risk in either realm.

point being, perhaps there really is such a function such as 'risk intelligence' and perhaps the lack of use of it can cause gamblers and investors who rely purely on mathematics, perilous prospects that mathematics isn't capable of dealing with.
i find it interesting that both Evans and Taleb mention the concept of 'street smart' capabilities. a nebulous term perhaps but a term that lends light upon the idea that when dealing with uncertainty and risk there may be more of a wise tactic to take than mathematics alone.
success in gambling and investing alone may not be the best indicator of good tactics for dealing with uncertainty and risk. reason being is we can be blinded by the spectacular show that success presents while we are unaware of the 'graveyard' in which those who have succeeded and then failed find themselves currently pushing up daises. lol.

just maybe we as products of the evolution of the universe, a universe that seems to have spawned from primordial random elements and events that are fundamentally underpinned with uncertainty, living beings that have always had to deal with uncertainty and risk through out the ages, just maybe we all have some degree of 'risk intelligence'.

what ever i'm sure interested in developing the use of it.
Froggy,

OMG...Are you feeling ok?

Your separating your thoughts in paragraphs..:eek:

Pretty soon you may even indent and use capitals :eek:

What happened to our beloved wise one.... where'd he go :cry:

BJC
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#6
font in the spirit of flash, kolan rulez

bjcount said:
Froggy,

OMG...Are you feeling ok?

Your separating your thoughts in paragraphs..:eek:

Pretty soon you may even indent and use capitals :eek:

What happened to our beloved wise one.... where'd he go :cry:

BJC
˙sʞɹoʍ ǝɥʇ 'sǝɔuɐʇuǝs ʇɥƃnoɥʇ llnɟ ǝuo ʎluo 'ɹɐɯɯɐɹƃ ɹǝdoɹd

˙ǝɹǝɥʇ uı ƃuɐɥ ʇsnɾ 'ɟɟnʇs ʍǝu ǝɯos uo ƃuıʞɹoʍ ɯ,ı
 
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