Tales of a new counter

1) When do you decide to leave a casino? I've been trying to just hit and run in under 2 hours. I stayed 4 hours on 9/5 because the counts were so good and I was sure I would eventually get some money back. Was I wrong to stay and keep firing when the counts were so high?

2) My bankroll "was" $5000 but since it's been decimated should I drop my big bet in half or more? "Kelly" says I should.
3) Any suggestions to help get through this horrible stretch?

4) Should I move the "warm" & "hot" lines to help cover the house edge?

5) Should I spread to 2 hands when playing solo and the count reaches the "hot" zone?

6) I'm completely open to feedback both positive and negative. Actually, I would appreciate negative feedback more so that I can improve. Let me have it. All questions welcomed.

Hello everyone. I just wanted to introduce myself, share my story over the last 60 days and possibly get some feedback and advice.

It all started because a friend has been counting for years and has won a substantial amount. He uses the Hi-Lo count so that's what I decided to learn. I practiced for several hours every day and after a week I was fairly proficient. I could count a full deck in 35 to 40 seconds. I also have the iPhone app "21 Pro" which I feel is an amazing training aid when first learning to count. It keeps the count for you so you get instant feedback when you make an error. I continued practicing counting down a full deck and playing 21 Pro several hours a day for 2 weeks before I decided to purchase the book Color of Blackjack. After reading the book I decided this was the strategy for me. After dissecting the book piece by piece and practicing the unbalanced count for 2 weeks I was feeling pretty confident in my ability. At this point I'm counting a full deck in 25 to 27 seconds with zero mistakes, I'm playing 21 Pro with a 6 deck shoe and rarely making any counting or betting errors, and I've memorized basic strategy. I'm as ready as I can be with zero real world experience so I head out.

The following are the table rules where I play along with dates, amount won/lost, and time played at casinos.

I've calculated the house edge is -.56% based on the following rules.

baseline -.02% (SD,DD any first 2 cards,1 card split Aces,dealer stands on S17,no surrender)
6 decks -.53%
Dealer hits on S17 -.20%
Resplit Aces +.06%
Double after split +.13%

Play History:
8/25 Casino #1 +$580 1 hour

8/26 Casino #2 +$255 1 hour
8/26 Casino #1 -$45 half hour

8/27 Casino #3 -$240 2 hours
8/27 Casino #2 +$200 2 hours

8/28 Casino #1 -$125 1.5 hours
8/28 Casino #2 +$50 2 hours
8/28 Casino #4 -$230 3 hours
8/28 Casino #3 +$200 2 hours

8/29 Casino #1 +$70 2 hours

8/31 Casino #1 -$700 half hour

9/4 Casino #1 +$310 1 hour
9/4 Casino #2 -$625 2 hours
9/4 Casino #4 -$235 2.5 hours
9/4 Casino #3 -$400 1.5 hours

9/5 Casino #5 +$100 half hour
9/5 Casino #2 -$150 2 hours
9/5 Casino #1 -$1830 4 hours

9/7 Casino #2 -$450 2 hours

Grand total -$3265

My assessment so far. Obviously I loved it when I first started. I was doing well right out the gate then went back and forth as I expected. I also expected some losses but 9/4 and especially 9/5 were very difficult. 9/7 didn't help either. I ain't gonna lie. That is a confidence shaker. I'm following the Color of Blackjack book perfectly according to my playing partner who has read the book as well. The big loss of $1830 on 9/5 was especially rough. I lost about 80% of my big bets when the count was in the "hot" according to the book. I sat at the same table all 4 hours and the count repeatedly, shoe after shoe, hit 29 to 42. I believed in the math and just kept pulling money out of my pocket, firing away, and watching it disappear. I've concluded that even though I lost $1830 I acted correctly because the goal of counting is to find the "hot" shoe. If it kept finding me why would I leave? Obviously, hindsight tells me I should have left. As a side note, the majority of the $1830 loss were in the last 2 hours when I was playing heads up with the dealer. I think 1 mistake I made was not spreading to 2 hands in those last 2 hours when the count was great. Thoughts?

I have several questions for the group. They are as follows:

1) When do you decide to leave a casino? I've been trying to just hit and run in under 2 hours. I stayed 4 hours on 9/5 because the counts were so good and I was sure I would eventually get some money back. Was I wrong to stay and keep firing when the counts were so high?

2) My bankroll "was" $5000 but since it's been decimated should I drop my big bet in half or more? "Kelly" says I should.

3) Any suggestions to help get through this horrible stretch?

4) Should I move the "warm" & "hot" lines to help cover the house edge?

5) Should I spread to 2 hands when playing solo and the count reaches the "hot" zone?

6) I'm completely open to feedback both positive and negative. Actually, I would appreciate negative feedback more so that I can improve. Let me have it. All questions welcomed.

Thank you and I look forward to posting here as much as possible.

From your loss pattern and my experience to diagnosis my newbie counter friends, I think you made mistakes on playing stiff hands when true count is high. You probably want to go back to play with computer and pay attention when true count is high and you got 14, 15, 16 against dealers' 8, 9, 10 and Ace. If you can't memorize all the indexes, the first step is to hit all 13 and 14 stiff hands and concentrate on playing 15 and 16 stiff hands 100% right.

. I lost about 80% of my big bets when the count was in the "hot" according to the book. I sat at the same table all 4 hours and the count repeatedly, shoe after shoe, hit 29 to 42.

I'd be somewhat concerned that you saw so many high count hands. Even with 83% pen, only about 1.5% of the hands you see should be at TC +8 or higher (HiLo). It's not unusual to have several shoes in a row with no significantly positive counts.

I think it's very likely that you made some counting mistakes.

Something doesn't sound right here. It sounds like you're either not counting correctly or the shoe in question was missing a significant number of 10's and Aces. I've only seen a running count get above 29 twice in the last year, and both times it was 32. It certainly shouldn't remain that high shoe after shoe. Are they using an AMS or is it hand shuffled? If it's hand shuffled you should be able to cut the unused cards that are rich in high cards to the front of the shoe or to the back of the playable shoe if you prefer, but make sure you get them into play! High counts are no good if the high cards remain burried. The count has to come back down to be of any help.

Did you use the correct IRC? Having a RC of +42 seems really high.

I've been playing basic strategy perfectly and using index plays. Here is a link to the index plays I use. I only used the first 5 as I've read they cover 95% of all possible card counting gain. I will now be memorizing the remaining index plays. Shouldn't be hard to remember.

(Dead link: http://www.thecolorofblackjack.com/charts/pdfs/index-plays.pdf)

Unfortunately, that is not index play for Hi-Lo. This is some indexes for Hi Lo:
u\dealer 7 8 9 10 A
16 ........ 9 7 5 0 8
15 ...... 10 10 8 4 9

For example, assuming you have 16 and dealer shown A, if true count is 8 or higher, you stand. If true count is 7 or lower, you hit.

Another example, assuming you have 16 and dealer shown 10, if true count is 0 or higher, you stand. If true count is -1 or lower, you hit.

For counters, you make money when true count is very high and you spread 20 to 1 or even 100 to 1, these stiff hands need to be played correctly because it can be either hit or stand depending how high the true count is. And this is just the first step. You need to adjust the indexes based on ace side count.

I'm not using Hi-Lo. I'm using KO. I count 7 as +1. I'm not sure what you're saying.

Now the question is if using KO counting is adequate to win.

Hello everyone. I just wanted to introduce myself, share my story over the last 60 days and possibly get some feedback and advice.

Now the question is if using KO counting is adequate to win.

I'm not using Hi-Lo. I'm using KO. I count 7 as +1. I'm not sure what you're saying.

It all started because a friend has been counting for years and has won a substantial amount. He uses the Hi-Lo count so that's what I decided to learn.

?

It all started because a friend has been counting for years and has won a substantial amount. He uses the Hi-Lo count so that's what I decided to learn.
...
I continued practicing counting down a full deck and playing 21 Pro several hours a day for 2 weeks before I decided to purchase the book Color of Blackjack. After reading the book I decided this was the strategy for me.