+EV of owning Data?

halcyon1234

Well-Known Member
#1
This is obviously a bit on the "never will happen" side-- but I've always wondered what kind of winnings THE most abosolutely perfect blackjack player would see. I mean, counting, basic strat-- it's all about guesstimating what the deck is kinda-like, and doing best-practicies moves.

But what if you had someone like Data from Star Trek. Basically, a computer with enough number crunching powers to be able to fully analyze a shoe at any given moment in real time.

In other words, your Data would be able to keep track not of a "count"-- but literally every card that has been dealt. He'd know EXACTLY which cards were reamining in the shoe, and would be able to generate a game dream after every deal/hit to figure out the exact best next move based on every hand he could have vs. every hand the dealer could have (or make).

If such a Data was allowed to play a standard game (S17, no surrender, 6 decks, 75% pen, DAS, 1 card to split aces, no replit aces, doube any), could Wong at will, was playing on a table that allowed $25-$2000 bets, and were allowed to spread his bets without being backed off-- what edge would he get? Is there any way to run a sim on this?
 

dacium

Well-Known Member
#2
Its called 'perfect strat' and sims have been done. I understand it to be about 0.15% better than BS with illustrious 18. Even if you did everything perfectly (bet 0% with EV <= 0 and at exact kelly when above 0) I think the EV is about 2.9% when you bet, and about 1.5% considering every hand you will see.
 

halcyon1234

Well-Known Member
#3
dacium said:
Its called 'perfect strat' and sims have been done. I understand it to be about 0.15% better than BS with illustrious 18. Even if you did everything perfectly (bet 0% with EV <= 0 and at exact kelly when above 0) I think the EV is about 2.9% when you bet, and about 1.5% considering every hand you will see.
Sweet. I'll start on the positronic brain designs right away. =)
 

ScottH

Well-Known Member
#5
shadroch said:
You'd be better off working on a time machine to take you to the early 60s,where they used one deck and dealt to the last card.
Or just grab the latest almanac, and go back and make some bets!
 

halcyon1234

Well-Known Member
#6
shadroch said:
You'd be better off working on a time machine to take you to the early 60s,where they used one deck and dealt to the last card.

Or just grab the latest almanac, and go back and make some bets!
Gee, thanks. I'm talking about a serious robotics project-- and you ruin it by suggesting doing something impossible like buying a DeLorean? =P
 
Top