hourly winrate for TCP?

Jack_Black

Jack_Black

Well-Known Member
how do you calculate this based on different AP percentages? different bet units? different hands/hr?
 
If your advantage is 3.48%, then that means that for every time you place $100 on the "ante" bet, you will have earned exactly $3.48; it matters not whether you fold OR play on. Multiply your earn per hand by hands per hour and you have your expected hourly earn.

This is what causes the high volatility in this game; most of the time that your original bet is $100, you're actually risking $200.
 
Huh???

You might want to rewrite that post I have no idea what you are trying to say and I read it several times.
 
I'd guess 40 hands/hour for an average game. So, asssuming 100%, you're around $139 an hour with a $100 bet.

This assumes perfect reads, which doesn't happen in the real world. Even the best games are usually 98-99%.
 
moo321 said:
I'd guess 40 hands/hour for an average game. So, asssuming 100%, you're around $139 an hour with a $100 bet.

This assumes perfect reads, which doesn't happen in the real world. Even the best games are usually 98-99%.
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And if you think Counting Cards is boring, then get ready for the longest hours of your life!


- Dye
 
Not sure if I should start another thread but..... Does anyone have the game quality numbers for tcp? N0, SD, RoR? Does SCORE apply to this game? Assume the 3% advantage.
 
moo321 said:
I'd guess 40 hands/hour for an average game. So, asssuming 100%, you're around $139 an hour with a $100 bet.

This assumes perfect reads, which doesn't happen in the real world. Even the best games are usually 98-99%.
Click to expand...
For all the hoohaa about HCing 3CP, the effective win-rate per hour would only be equal to a decent BJ staright-counting game. zg
 
Moo brings up another question I have. 3.48% is assuming perfect reads as in differentiating between a jack or queen? So what is the advantage for getting a face/not face read?
 
Jack_Black said:
Moo brings up another question I have. 3.48% is assuming perfect reads as in differentiating between a jack or queen? So what is the advantage for getting a face/not face read?
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The issue is usually differentiating the jack and king.

But even more important, you HAVE to get the aces. They often look like 2-3.

In theory, you can get maybe 2% with paint/no paint, but I'd never play it. Basically, I'd never play it unless it was 100%, and even then, if it's slow I may not play it.

It's nice to have heat-free EV, but the variance is rather nasty.

As to your question about SD, N0, SCORE, etc. those numbers can be calculated, but I'm not sure what they are...
 
Jack_Black said:
Moo brings up another question I have. 3.48% is assuming perfect reads as in differentiating between a jack or queen? So what is the advantage for getting a face/not face read?
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"If the player can categorize the dealer's card as an ace, 2-10, or face card, then the player advantage drops to 2.41%. The player should not play at all if he can't distinguish an ace from a 2-10, because the house would have a 2.43% advantage"

Wizard of Odds.
 
1. 3.48% is the standard "good" payout with perfect reads on 2-T/J/Q/K/A. As noted, it's about 2.4% with 2-T/paint/A.

2. You'll need a copy of the Book for RoR figures and "session length," which is similar to the N0 concept. The chart is broken down in unit sizes and includes the figures for both the J/Q/K game and the paint/no paint game.

3. ZG incorrectly assumes that a good 3CP game is about equal to a good counting game in terms of win-rate. While the game is much slower and the variance is higher, the bankroll requirements are significantly lower when considering different win-rates. With similar bankrolls, the absolute best counting game I've ever witnessed (outrageously good) was still worth less per hour than a normal, good 3CP game with a comparable RoR.

4. I don't agree that the game is "heat-free," especially in Vegas. Certainly much lower heat than blackjack, though.
 
Lonesome Gambler said:
4. I don't agree that the game is "heat-free," especially in Vegas. Certainly much lower heat than blackjack, though.
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Have you gotten heat on OCP? I've never seen it, other than generic heat, "OMFG, why is he betting $300 a hand when everyone else is betting $5". Never heat on the actual game.
 
Narrowly avoided a barring (not backoff) once and had more than a few scowling bosses, which I don't consider to be real heat, but they were not smiling, to say the least.
 
Lonesome Gambler said:
1. 3.48% is the standard "good" payout with perfect reads on 2-T/J/Q/K/A. As noted, it's about 2.4% with 2-T/paint/A.

2. You'll need a copy of the Book for RoR figures and "session length," which is similar to the N0 concept. The chart is broken down in unit sizes and includes the figures for both the J/Q/K game and the paint/no paint game.
Click to expand...

I'm on the road right now and don't have "the book" with me. can you PM me?
 
moo321 said:
In theory, you can get maybe 2% with paint/no paint, but I'd never play it. Basically, I'd never play it unless it was 100%, and even then, if it's slow I may not play it.
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yea, I got a few aces mixed up with 2s, but my eyes are learning quick!

2.4% is still 2.4% even with $100@45hands/hr that's still $108/hr. am I missing something here as to why you wouldn't play it?
 
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