blackjack is for ENTERTAINMENT ONLY1
- Thread starter joel099
- Start date
joel,
Its quite obvious you know next to nothing about gambling.I'm sorry to say it,but its true.
Even your $50,000 challenge is clueless.
I accept it. Fly to AC,and I'll meet you and play. If I'm lucky enough to have 30 straight winning sessions,I win $50,000.If true form comes thru and I lose on any given day,I go home unhurt. You go home with a huge expense and what else?
Seriously,where in the world did you ever get the idea that a pro wins every single day?What books have you read on this subject?All I've read from you are stupid superstitions and old wives tales,good shoes following bad shoes,playing three hands,ect,ect.
Its quite obvious you know next to nothing about gambling.I'm sorry to say it,but its true.
Even your $50,000 challenge is clueless.
I accept it. Fly to AC,and I'll meet you and play. If I'm lucky enough to have 30 straight winning sessions,I win $50,000.If true form comes thru and I lose on any given day,I go home unhurt. You go home with a huge expense and what else?
Seriously,where in the world did you ever get the idea that a pro wins every single day?What books have you read on this subject?All I've read from you are stupid superstitions and old wives tales,good shoes following bad shoes,playing three hands,ect,ect.
Just curious as to why you think a card counter cant make it solo. My only belief would be that it is too difficult because of the heat. Once you start betting black it seems like everyone knows your game. I think if I was going to make my living counting I would play with a top bet of $300 regardless of BR. that way you would last much longer at the tables.
ihate17
Well-Known Member
My experience
I have been counting cards along with hole carding for close to 30 years now.
I do not consider myself a pro, have never tried (except for 6 months 25 years ago) playing as a pro but still get between 300-500 hours in every year.
Joel has been playing for three years and I guess the period of time he spent during those three years as a cardcounter is only a fraction of that time.
Most people who try cardcounting land up giving it up with the conclusion that it just does not work. My experience showed I was a fairly large net loser in 3 of my first 5 years counting.
Some people begin counting and do not even know the basic strategy that their count system would have them deviating from.
Many people begin counting and are seriously under bankrolled.
Many people do not understand the variance of the game and the fact that getting a little over a 1% edge means absolutely nothing in a period of several months variance.
Many people are afraid to put out the big bets when they should.
More people after getting their butt kicked on big bets, bet differently in the future and severely reduce their lifetime EV
Many people steam after big loses and chase their money at times when the count does not call for big bets.
Some people are using inferior count systems.
Some new counters will get confused and reverse the count.
Many many way to many people forget to play only decent games. (To Joel some 6 deck shoes are good games, teams like them, but many are not) This can be bad rules or poor penetration or a combination of both.
With time I could probably triple this list but basically these and especially a combination of these kind of things will wipe out your small edge easily and then you are playing again a negative expectation game.
Some people with a lot of study and computer practice can be very good at this game in a short period of time, especially if they are not working alone, but for most there is a stretched out learning curve.
As far as personal results. For the past 10 years I have averaged over $65 per hour while winning in 9 of the 10 years. This is straight counting, my $ per hour in hole card sessions is a lot higher. In dollars it has been over 25 thousand per year (and yes I pay taxes on it and IRS audits me about every 4 or 5 years), but if I decided to play fulltime, I could never get enough hours in without big travel expenses and I do work fulltime and have a family.
ihate17
I have been counting cards along with hole carding for close to 30 years now.
I do not consider myself a pro, have never tried (except for 6 months 25 years ago) playing as a pro but still get between 300-500 hours in every year.
Joel has been playing for three years and I guess the period of time he spent during those three years as a cardcounter is only a fraction of that time.
Most people who try cardcounting land up giving it up with the conclusion that it just does not work. My experience showed I was a fairly large net loser in 3 of my first 5 years counting.
Some people begin counting and do not even know the basic strategy that their count system would have them deviating from.
Many people begin counting and are seriously under bankrolled.
Many people do not understand the variance of the game and the fact that getting a little over a 1% edge means absolutely nothing in a period of several months variance.
Many people are afraid to put out the big bets when they should.
More people after getting their butt kicked on big bets, bet differently in the future and severely reduce their lifetime EV
Many people steam after big loses and chase their money at times when the count does not call for big bets.
Some people are using inferior count systems.
Some new counters will get confused and reverse the count.
Many many way to many people forget to play only decent games. (To Joel some 6 deck shoes are good games, teams like them, but many are not) This can be bad rules or poor penetration or a combination of both.
With time I could probably triple this list but basically these and especially a combination of these kind of things will wipe out your small edge easily and then you are playing again a negative expectation game.
Some people with a lot of study and computer practice can be very good at this game in a short period of time, especially if they are not working alone, but for most there is a stretched out learning curve.
As far as personal results. For the past 10 years I have averaged over $65 per hour while winning in 9 of the 10 years. This is straight counting, my $ per hour in hole card sessions is a lot higher. In dollars it has been over 25 thousand per year (and yes I pay taxes on it and IRS audits me about every 4 or 5 years), but if I decided to play fulltime, I could never get enough hours in without big travel expenses and I do work fulltime and have a family.
ihate17
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It's much harder to be a professional solo card counter. You would have to move around a lot. To make enough to live you will have to bet enough to get noticed. I agree it's difficult to do it professionally your whole life, but not impossible.
I'm pretty sure most professionals do other AP techniques in addition to card counting, or at least play on teams if they only count. That's my best guess, I dont know for certain.
Looking back on the last few sessions I have had I would only slightly disagree Cass. It is all in the act. I was able to use my BR to account for negative counts and when it was positive I could lay it on like I was feeling lucky or getting bored etc.. However, I have been backed off, had them break decks etc.. I suppose its about how much you buy in for. When you lay down a lot of cash, It is a bit persuasive to the crew to let you play a bit. I try not to out think my play as well. Yet, I have been playing black and have them call out every time I placed a bet.. NYNY ..Cough...
supercoolmancool
Well-Known Member
I don't believe in professional card counters because of the heat, lack of good games, and the incredibly small edge. The 1 percent edge would not be a problem if you could play marathon sessions as much and whenever you want, and not have to move around all the time looking for good games and then worrying about getting backed off from them. That is why I am learning shuffle tracking so that I can avoid all of those 3 things. I do believe in professional card counting teams like Bojack, who also shuffle tracks and play the hole card.
supercoolmancool
Well-Known Member
That's a really good post. I just thought I would say that for no reason.
If you have a good partner to work with you can learn how to count proficiently in a couple months. Me and supercoolmancool are good examples of that. I don't know if we learned faster than average, but it can be done. Just don't go out to the casino until you are ready, no matter how long it takes to get there.
Automatic Monkey
Banned
You can do that. Maybe Bojack can give an educated opinion on this: who will last longer, a green chip player playing 60 hours a week or a black chip player playing 15 hours a week? My guess is the green chipper.
Here's the problem. To live off BJ income you need a much larger bankroll than most people realize. Full Kelly is not nearly big enough. That 13.5% RoR is assuming 100% of your winnings goes back into the bankroll. Living off a bankroll is just like tipping, and your RoR increases exponentially with withdrawing expenses from it.
If I were a full-time player living in a BJ venue (like AC for example) I would get a weekend job in a bar or restaurant or something. The guaranteed income would provide tremendous protection for my BR, and having a visible means of support help keep the authorities from getting too interested in you. Besides weekends are times when it is difficult to play properly anyway.
Heres the thing,though.
You two might have learned how to count faster than average,but you didn't learn how to play.Your partner says he has about 50 hours of real play,and you guys are banned from all your local places.There is a lot more to succeeding in BJ than knowing how to count.Staying under the radar is equally important,a lesson you seem to have learned after the fact.Doesn't really matter how well you can count if you can't play.
Better Run A Trial First At Your Local Casino
better run a trial FIRST at your local casino using a SIX-DECK MULTIDECK SHOE before taking me up on my $50,000 offer. It may LOOK easy to win a minimum of $200 per DAY(NOT AVERAGE $200 per day) . I'm talking about WINNING $200 min per day for TWENTY-FOUR consectutive sessions...THIS IS NOT AS EASY AS IT SOUNDS...Believe me I tried . In fact I made it to the tenth session showing a profit of 200-300 per day and on the next day LOST $4000 to shoot me back in the OVERALL NEGATIVE FOR ALL SESSIONS PLAYED.
With regard to card counting-you blackjack players that count cards have only a 2% max edge over NON- card counters on a six deck multideck shoe.
Secondly, this business of "Counters getting heat from the casino is NOT TRUE". My casino welcomes card counters or even card counter wannabe's. THE ONLY REASON why they yell "checks play" is to alert the pit boss that you increased your bet to black play- It has nothing to do with alerting the pit boss that a card counter in at the table. I even told the pit boss that I am counting cards and he said" More power to you, good luck".Thats why my casino uses six decks and not 2-3 like days of old..Also the days of casino's kicking out the card counters are pretty much gone unless you are CONSISTENTLY winning THOUSANDS PER DAY OUT OF THE SAME CASINO.THIS DOESNT HAPPEN... Remember card counting requires a pretty good size bankroll .
At our local casino we had a professional card counter come over to our table. he even told the pit boss that he was from vegas and he layed out $5000 dollars on the table- bought chips and in less than 3 shoes he was busted out.I could tell that he had not played a six deck shoe in a while and he even mentioned that he prefers four deck shoes or less..I watched and counted in my head just to make sure he got the count right and he was for the most part fairly accurate. Its just that on a multideck shoe the DEALER DOESNT BUST OUT AS OFTEN-AND THEY OFTEN MAKE A VERY GOOD HAND.THIS IS WHY OUR LOCAL CASINO IS NOT SCARED OF CARD COUNTERS AND WELCOMES THEM.
IN FACT I WELCOME ANY OF YOU TO COME OVER TO CASINO ARIZONA IN PHOENIX AND JUST TRY TO MAKE MONEY BY CARD COUNTING. IT WONT WORK.LIKE I SAID " DEALER HAS 5 CARD SHOWING AND YOU HAVE A PAIR OF TENS. WITH MAX BET IN THE CIRCLE. DO YOU THINK CASINO ARIZONA IS SCARED OF YOUR CARD COUNTING?. NO WAY. THEY KNOW THAT THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEATING YOUR TWENTY. THEY CAN GO 5-5-ACE, THEY CAN GO 5-6-10, THEY CAN GO 5-4-2-10, 5-10-6, 5-9-7, 5-8-8, 5-7-9,AND ON A SIX DECK MULTISHOE THIS HAPPENS ALOT!!!
THATS WHY I SAY: BLACKJACK IS MORE FOR ENTERTAINMENT THAN FOR TRYING TO MAKE A PROFIT. BECAUSE AS SOON AS YOU TRY TO GET SERIOUS AND TRY TO MAKE A PROFIT FROM IT ON A DAILY BASIS- YOU WILL GET FINANCIALLY HURT.IF YOUR JUST DOING SOME WEEKEND GAMBLING BINGE AND HAPPEN TO WIN $600-$1000 IT IS NOT SOMETHING THAT YOU CAN REPEAT OVER AND OVER TWENTY TIMES IN A MONTH.MONTH AFTER MONTH.. BLACKJACK IS STILL GAMBLING. THE PLAYERS THAT PLAY IT FOR A LIVING IN LAS VEGAS HAVE A HUGE BANKROLL AND THEIR DAILY INCOME FROM PLAYING BLACKJACK LOOKS LIKE A STOCK CHART. EX MON WON-2000,TUES LOST 4000, WED WON 2500,THURS WON 1500, FRI LOST 3500. ETC ETC. YOU WILL NEVER SEE A BLACK JACK PLAYER'S JOURNAL READ: MON WON 1000, TUES WON 500, WED WON 1200, THURS WON 800
FRI WON 900...THAT IS FOR DREAMERS.....
JOEL
better run a trial FIRST at your local casino using a SIX-DECK MULTIDECK SHOE before taking me up on my $50,000 offer. It may LOOK easy to win a minimum of $200 per DAY(NOT AVERAGE $200 per day) . I'm talking about WINNING $200 min per day for TWENTY-FOUR consectutive sessions...THIS IS NOT AS EASY AS IT SOUNDS...Believe me I tried . In fact I made it to the tenth session showing a profit of 200-300 per day and on the next day LOST $4000 to shoot me back in the OVERALL NEGATIVE FOR ALL SESSIONS PLAYED.
With regard to card counting-you blackjack players that count cards have only a 2% max edge over NON- card counters on a six deck multideck shoe.
Secondly, this business of "Counters getting heat from the casino is NOT TRUE". My casino welcomes card counters or even card counter wannabe's. THE ONLY REASON why they yell "checks play" is to alert the pit boss that you increased your bet to black play- It has nothing to do with alerting the pit boss that a card counter in at the table. I even told the pit boss that I am counting cards and he said" More power to you, good luck".Thats why my casino uses six decks and not 2-3 like days of old..Also the days of casino's kicking out the card counters are pretty much gone unless you are CONSISTENTLY winning THOUSANDS PER DAY OUT OF THE SAME CASINO.THIS DOESNT HAPPEN... Remember card counting requires a pretty good size bankroll .
At our local casino we had a professional card counter come over to our table. he even told the pit boss that he was from vegas and he layed out $5000 dollars on the table- bought chips and in less than 3 shoes he was busted out.I could tell that he had not played a six deck shoe in a while and he even mentioned that he prefers four deck shoes or less..I watched and counted in my head just to make sure he got the count right and he was for the most part fairly accurate. Its just that on a multideck shoe the DEALER DOESNT BUST OUT AS OFTEN-AND THEY OFTEN MAKE A VERY GOOD HAND.THIS IS WHY OUR LOCAL CASINO IS NOT SCARED OF CARD COUNTERS AND WELCOMES THEM.
IN FACT I WELCOME ANY OF YOU TO COME OVER TO CASINO ARIZONA IN PHOENIX AND JUST TRY TO MAKE MONEY BY CARD COUNTING. IT WONT WORK.LIKE I SAID " DEALER HAS 5 CARD SHOWING AND YOU HAVE A PAIR OF TENS. WITH MAX BET IN THE CIRCLE. DO YOU THINK CASINO ARIZONA IS SCARED OF YOUR CARD COUNTING?. NO WAY. THEY KNOW THAT THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEATING YOUR TWENTY. THEY CAN GO 5-5-ACE, THEY CAN GO 5-6-10, THEY CAN GO 5-4-2-10, 5-10-6, 5-9-7, 5-8-8, 5-7-9,AND ON A SIX DECK MULTISHOE THIS HAPPENS ALOT!!!
THATS WHY I SAY: BLACKJACK IS MORE FOR ENTERTAINMENT THAN FOR TRYING TO MAKE A PROFIT. BECAUSE AS SOON AS YOU TRY TO GET SERIOUS AND TRY TO MAKE A PROFIT FROM IT ON A DAILY BASIS- YOU WILL GET FINANCIALLY HURT.IF YOUR JUST DOING SOME WEEKEND GAMBLING BINGE AND HAPPEN TO WIN $600-$1000 IT IS NOT SOMETHING THAT YOU CAN REPEAT OVER AND OVER TWENTY TIMES IN A MONTH.MONTH AFTER MONTH.. BLACKJACK IS STILL GAMBLING. THE PLAYERS THAT PLAY IT FOR A LIVING IN LAS VEGAS HAVE A HUGE BANKROLL AND THEIR DAILY INCOME FROM PLAYING BLACKJACK LOOKS LIKE A STOCK CHART. EX MON WON-2000,TUES LOST 4000, WED WON 2500,THURS WON 1500, FRI LOST 3500. ETC ETC. YOU WILL NEVER SEE A BLACK JACK PLAYER'S JOURNAL READ: MON WON 1000, TUES WON 500, WED WON 1200, THURS WON 800
FRI WON 900...THAT IS FOR DREAMERS.....
JOEL
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Better Run A Trial First At Your Local Casino
better run a trial FIRST at your local casino using a SIX-DECK MULTIDECK SHOE before taking me up on my $50,000 offer. It may LOOK easy to win a minimum of $200 per DAY(NOT AVERAGE $200 per day) . I'm talking about WINNING $200 min per day for TWENTY-FOUR consectutive sessions...THIS IS NOT AS EASY AS IT SOUNDS...Believe me I tried . In fact I made it to the tenth session showing a profit of 200-300 per day and on the next day LOST $4000 to shoot me back in the OVERALL NEGATIVE FOR ALL SESSIONS PLAYED.
With regard to card counting-you blackjack players that count cards have only a 2% max edge over NON- card counters on a six deck multideck shoe.
Secondly, this business of "Counters getting heat from the casino is NOT TRUE". My casino welcomes card counters or even card counter wannabe's. THE ONLY REASON why they yell "checks play" is to alert the pit boss that you increased your bet to black play- It has nothing to do with alerting the pit boss that a card counter in at the table. I even told the pit boss that I am counting cards and he said" More power to you, good luck".Thats why my casino uses six decks and not 2-3 like days of old..Also the days of casino's kicking out the card counters are pretty much gone unless you are CONSISTENTLY winning THOUSANDS PER DAY OUT OF THE SAME CASINO.THIS DOESNT HAPPEN... Remember card counting requires a pretty good size bankroll .
At our local casino we had a professional card counter come over to our table. he even told the pit boss that he was from vegas and he layed out $5000 dollars on the table- bought chips and in less than 3 shoes he was busted out.I could tell that he had not played a six deck shoe in a while and he even mentioned that he prefers four deck shoes or less..I watched and counted in my head just to make sure he got the count right and he was for the most part fairly accurate. Its just that on a multideck shoe the DEALER DOESNT BUST OUT AS OFTEN-AND THEY OFTEN MAKE A VERY GOOD HAND.THIS IS WHY OUR LOCAL CASINO IS NOT SCARED OF CARD COUNTERS AND WELCOMES THEM.
IN FACT I WELCOME ANY OF YOU TO COME OVER TO CASINO ARIZONA IN PHOENIX AND JUST TRY TO MAKE MONEY BY CARD COUNTING. IT WONT WORK.LIKE I SAID " DEALER HAS 5 CARD SHOWING AND YOU HAVE A PAIR OF TENS. WITH MAX BET IN THE CIRCLE. DO YOU THINK CASINO ARIZONA IS SCARED OF YOUR CARD COUNTING?. NO WAY. THEY KNOW THAT THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEATING YOUR TWENTY. THEY CAN GO 5-5-ACE, THEY CAN GO 5-6-10, THEY CAN GO 5-4-2-10, 5-10-6, 5-9-7, 5-8-8, 5-7-9,AND ON A SIX DECK MULTISHOE THIS HAPPENS ALOT!!!
JOEL
better run a trial FIRST at your local casino using a SIX-DECK MULTIDECK SHOE before taking me up on my $50,000 offer. It may LOOK easy to win a minimum of $200 per DAY(NOT AVERAGE $200 per day) . I'm talking about WINNING $200 min per day for TWENTY-FOUR consectutive sessions...THIS IS NOT AS EASY AS IT SOUNDS...Believe me I tried . In fact I made it to the tenth session showing a profit of 200-300 per day and on the next day LOST $4000 to shoot me back in the OVERALL NEGATIVE FOR ALL SESSIONS PLAYED.
With regard to card counting-you blackjack players that count cards have only a 2% max edge over NON- card counters on a six deck multideck shoe.
Secondly, this business of "Counters getting heat from the casino is NOT TRUE". My casino welcomes card counters or even card counter wannabe's. THE ONLY REASON why they yell "checks play" is to alert the pit boss that you increased your bet to black play- It has nothing to do with alerting the pit boss that a card counter in at the table. I even told the pit boss that I am counting cards and he said" More power to you, good luck".Thats why my casino uses six decks and not 2-3 like days of old..Also the days of casino's kicking out the card counters are pretty much gone unless you are CONSISTENTLY winning THOUSANDS PER DAY OUT OF THE SAME CASINO.THIS DOESNT HAPPEN... Remember card counting requires a pretty good size bankroll .
At our local casino we had a professional card counter come over to our table. he even told the pit boss that he was from vegas and he layed out $5000 dollars on the table- bought chips and in less than 3 shoes he was busted out.I could tell that he had not played a six deck shoe in a while and he even mentioned that he prefers four deck shoes or less..I watched and counted in my head just to make sure he got the count right and he was for the most part fairly accurate. Its just that on a multideck shoe the DEALER DOESNT BUST OUT AS OFTEN-AND THEY OFTEN MAKE A VERY GOOD HAND.THIS IS WHY OUR LOCAL CASINO IS NOT SCARED OF CARD COUNTERS AND WELCOMES THEM.
IN FACT I WELCOME ANY OF YOU TO COME OVER TO CASINO ARIZONA IN PHOENIX AND JUST TRY TO MAKE MONEY BY CARD COUNTING. IT WONT WORK.LIKE I SAID " DEALER HAS 5 CARD SHOWING AND YOU HAVE A PAIR OF TENS. WITH MAX BET IN THE CIRCLE. DO YOU THINK CASINO ARIZONA IS SCARED OF YOUR CARD COUNTING?. NO WAY. THEY KNOW THAT THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEATING YOUR TWENTY. THEY CAN GO 5-5-ACE, THEY CAN GO 5-6-10, THEY CAN GO 5-4-2-10, 5-10-6, 5-9-7, 5-8-8, 5-7-9,AND ON A SIX DECK MULTISHOE THIS HAPPENS ALOT!!!
JOEL
positiveEV
Well-Known Member
You should change your keyboard, I think your Caps Lock key is broken.
YOu dont know what you are talking about. There isnt a 70% chance the house will beat your twenty. Hmmm The phoenix casinos have about the worst games possible for card counters. It is barely beatable. If they dont kick anyone out I will come there and play a 25-500 spread. Or I will wong in and out and only play in positive situations if mid shoe entry is allowed. Obviously the guy who lost 5k was overbetting his BR.
EasyRhino
Well-Known Member
You make a good point. But you also define my idea of a great weekend!
But seriously, the the requirement to win money every day is just unrealistic. If you want a place where you can go 5-6 days a week, work a few hours, and get a fairly reliable income from it, you should get a job. That's what they're there for. I know that's what mine is for.
supercoolmancool
Well-Known Member
Well that isn't completely fair. We only have one casino within reasonable driving distace which was 2 hours away. We play for low stakes so to make it worth it we must play longer sessions. Also they only had ONE beatable game with only ONE table. So Scott and I had no choice but to play together at the same table and we lasted about 40-50 hours before getting kicked out. Victims of circumstance.
SystemsTrader
Well-Known Member
Joel, the odds of somebody winning for 24 consecutive sessions at blackjack are almost nil and nobody will win this challenge. Given the fact that you think you have to win everyday at blackjack gives me the feeling that you don't understand the how the edge works in this game. You have given me the impression that when you started playing blackjack you expected the game to work flawlessly in your favour and that the visit to the casino would be like going to an ABM machine and just withdrawing your cash anytime you felt like it.
I work in the financial field and see this all the time. New investors come along with the notion that they can just give their money to some broker (a supposed expert) or buy some hucksters system like Wizetrade and expect to win 100% of the time. As a trader I win only 27% of all trades yet I am still able to make a profit over the 73% of losses because I cut my losses short and ride large winners. The problem here is that it takes a long time usually years before any sizable profit accumulates. My point is sometimes to win the war you must lose a few battles along the way. The problem is most human beings are not cut out for this method of making a profit. Most human beings look for the security of a regular paycheck, and there is nothing wrong with this. We must find methods which suit our personalities. The truth is very few people are suited for the unsecure income of blackjack.
Hopefully you will stick with the game and learn what it really takes to be a winner, if not there is nothing wrong if you move on and I'm sorry it didn't work out for you. Most people will fail at this game like any other venture in life. Only a small percentage make it through the novice learning curve in any persuit!
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I'm only banned from one place, and quite frankly staying under the radar was near to impossible for our situation. The situation was, since we were under 21, the nearest casino was 1.5 hours away. That's 3 hours both ways. That costs money in gas, and uses up 3 hours of our time. So we have to make that up just to break even. Then we have to play more than that to make a decent hourly EV. Playing short sessions to avoid detection was out of the question. I wasn't about to go there and play 1.5 hours and just break even for a 4.5 hour trip.
So the only option was marathon sessions. Some people will last longer than others with a good act, but it is basically impossible to hide your skill from the casino playing 4-6 hours straight every visit.
I suppose we could have reduced our hourly EV to get longevity, but I don't want longevity if it means making only a couple dollars an hour. It wasn't worth my time to go there unless I hit them hard for a few hours. So that's exactly what I did, I blasted away with basically no cover until they kicked me out.
I know things such as cover plays, and to keep your sessions short, etc to keep longevity, but I didnt have that luxery in this case.