Recent content by Caruso

I had a contentious exchange with Don Schlesinger on this subject recently. As I see it, FA is not rocket science. Take count zero at the five deck level - the house edge is 0.5%. Now take the same count zero at 52 cards remaining and the house edge is moreorless zero, ie. it's floated down...

I wouldn't necessarily take the "reportedly" bit too much at face value.

Although my return is well within statistical expectation – 0.5 SDs – I remain very much unconvinced that this game is dealing in random manner. The whole nature of the game has seemed, from the outset and for want of a better word, wacko. It feels like a blackjack slot machine, delivering...

There are contradictory statements here. You learned about BHing and read BJ books, which suggests you understand the concept of +EV. On the other hand, you say you would be "more successful without CSMs" and you decided to "chance it" with a crap online game, which suggests you're a...

Yeah, we're just disagreeing on definitions, I'm not disputing the basic premise. Nothing is "impossible", however statistically absurd. "Reaching a confidence level which rejects the null hypothesis" is just so much harder to write than "impossible". :)

They're the last session always. I'm leaving out nothing since I initially reported. The last 2600 initial hands have lost at a rate of 2.4 SDs, total loss 144 units. Of the last thirteen 200-hand sessions, eleven have been losers. This is just silly. The Casino Bar experiment was 6.8 SDs...

The loss rate continues uninterrupted. Over the last 1376 hands I've lost 125 units. That's a 9% loss rate, and 3 standard deviations. The last 195-hand session lost 33.5 units. There is no comparable winning run, not even close. Overall return is 99.85% over in excess of 30,000 hands. The...

The thread was in relation to that last session, not the entire experience. Suppose for the sake of argument that last session had been a completely impossible 100 units worse, at -193 out of 590. That would have been an equally impossible 7 standard deviation loss and catagoric evidence of...

Ken, as I said earlier the total overall return is 99.94%, which is 0.28 SDs from expectation. The session I reported above, -93 units over 570 odd initial hands and 3.34 SDs down, constitutes the most recent play. I went back in and lost another 14 units over 29 initial hands. A redeposit...

I decided to go back in with my remaining 14 units on deposit. All gone within 29 hands. Same bullshit. Same constant, unrelenting 21 dealer draws. Same constant stiffs. Give me a break.

That will be interesting, Ken, but will it tell you anything my own play doesn't? I have a huge amount of play recorded, and as I say the overall return is 99.94%, 0.28 of 1 SD down. That is miles within expectation. FTR, I'm not remotely interested in "streaks" and the theories thereof...

OK: There is one comparable positive run, where over 788 ititial hands I won 92.5 units, or 2.7 standard deviations. FTR, this is less severe than the combined losing sessions I posted above. Out of all my 200-hand recorded sessions, one recorded a win of 46 units, to compare with my last...

Ken, I have an awful lot more data. This was simply my last chunk. I'll be away a few days, but will post some more thorough results subsequently. BTW, I wouldn't bother retesting - I imagine your account has a big red cross next to it with "absolutely do not fuck with on pain of death"...

No offence, but GIVE me a break. 10 SDs cannot happen. I don't know the figure, but it must be somewhere in the region of 1^20. START to be suspicious??? Are you kidding? Let's not get into fantasy land. 3 SDs are a 1 in 400 shot approx - that's 0.25%. Where do you get 11% from...

Norm Wattenberger gives it as 1.152, not 1.33, so the above 3.35 SD figure stands. I think you'll find Ken didn't experience an event anything like this.